然而，针对过去几周美股的回调，这位美银策略师拒绝继续做空美股，坚称这只是调整而非熊市。Hartnett表示：
Hartnett stated that the level of Cash among fund managers surged from 3.5% to 4.1%, marking the largest increase since March 2020, thereby ending the 'Sell' signal triggered on December 17 last year, although not all bottom signals have yet emerged. Due to a significant pullback in the USA stock market, it is expected that by the first quarter of this year, American households' stock wealth may decrease by 3 trillion dollars, and the upcoming 'tariff deadline' on April 2 has started to affect Global data.
In the past few weeks, the US stock market experienced one of the fastest adjustments since the pandemic, but Bank of America believes the 'Sell' signal has ended.
In December last year, Bank of America's chief strategist Michael Hartnett's 'Sell' signal successfully predicted the market top, which then triggered a 10% adjustment within 20 days,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$setting a record for the fifth fastest speed in 75 years. Nasdaq fell by 14%, the 'Seven Sisters' of Technology stocks plummeted by 20%, and the average decline in global stock indices was 5%.
However, regarding the recent pullback in the US stock market, this Bank of America strategist refused to continue shorting US stocks, insisting that this is merely an adjustment rather than a bear market. Hartnett stated:
When policymakers begin to panic, the market will stop panicking.
The signals for a market bottom have emerged, but have not yet fully taken shape.
The latest Bank of America fund manager survey shows that its Cash level jumped from 3.5% to 4.1%—the largest increase since March 2020—ending the "Sell" signal triggered on December 17 last year.
Although the Cash level has surpassed the critical 4% threshold, Hartnett believes that other bottom signals have yet to fully manifest, suggesting investors "pay attention to their actions, not their words."
The report also adds that after the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision, market reactions were marked by divergence: the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield behaved as if the Federal Reserve had a dovish stance, while the dollar behaved as if the Federal Reserve had a hawkish stance.
Hartnett believes this asset performance will only cause risk investors to continue to stand by.
He suggests that when Bank of America fund manager survey Cash levels exceed 4%, High Yield Bond spreads approach 400 basis points, and Stocks experience accelerated outflows, one should Buy the S&P 500 Index at 5300 points.
U.S. Consumers are under pressure.
It is worth noting that the pain for U.S. consumers has only just begun.
The Bank of America report shows that in the post-pandemic period, U.S. household stock wealth surged to $56 trillion, increasing by $9 trillion. However, according to Bank of America private client stock data, Hartnett expects that by the first quarter of 2025, U.S. household stock wealth may decrease by $3 trillion.
Meanwhile, USA's fiscal, monetary, and trade policies are currently hawkish rather than dovish, which means the USA's yield curve will once again invert.
April 2nd trade tariff deadline: Is the 'panic day' approaching?
Hartnett stated that while the biggest price catalysts for Assets in the first quarter are AI and Digital Currency, rather than tariff threats, the upcoming April 2 'tariff deadline' has begun to impact Global data.
For example, the optimism of small businesses in Canada has fallen to a historical low, as US tariffs are expected to leap from 2-3% to over 10%.
Hartnett summarized that Bonds and Gold are much less vulnerable to tariff policies compared to USA and international Stocks, and he also pointed out:
"While everyone thinks April 2 will be the 'peak panic day,' it may actually depend on who (Trump) plays golf with on April 1."
Editor/Rocky
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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