The escalation of the trade war with the USA has triggered countermeasures from the EU, and experts warn that unilateralism will lead to a lose-lose situation.
After the USA's measure to impose a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum officially took effect on the 12th of this month, the EU quickly took countermeasures.
Subsequently, President Trump threatened to impose a 200% tariff on EU alcoholic beverages.
In the face of the tariff war initiated by the USA, European economic experts state that the USA's escalating unilateralism will harm the interests of all parties involved.
According to the Zhizhong Finance APP, the European Commission will study whether to implement similar protective measures for the aluminum industry. "The steel industry has always been the core driver of Europe's prosperity," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. "This means we must help European steel manufacturers who face significant challenges in the global market."
Zheshang Securities released a research report stating that the price center of aluminum is showing an upward trend, and the upward trend continues. Regarding inventory, global inventory is at a low level, and social circulating inventory is reaching a turning point. With limited supply constraints and good demand conditions, as of March 10, 2025, the profit for a ton of electrolytic aluminum is approximately 3,300 yuan/ton, with significant profit increases for aluminum per ton.
Leading companies related to the aluminum industry listed in Hong Kong:
Aluminum Corporation Of China (02600): A report from Minsheng Securities points out that Aluminum Corporation Of China is a leader in the aluminum industry, with significant advantages in integrated layout. The company focuses on resource allocation, with Guinea's bauxite mines continuously increasing output. The Boffa mine has a high grade, with remaining exploitable years exceeding 60 years, and the project’s output has been increasing year by year, reaching 14.25 million tons in 2023. As of the end of 2023, the company has a total alumina production capacity of 22.26 million tons, and the Guangxi Huasheng Phase II 2 million ton project is gradually being put into production. If the project is completed as scheduled, the company's alumina production capacity is expected to reach 24.26 million tons per year. Abundant bauxite resources ensure a stable raw material supply for alumina production. The company has merged with Yunnan Aluminium to expand into the green industry, with promising prospects for the New energy Fund. As an integrated enterprise in China's aluminum Industry Chain, the company has significant resource assurance capabilities, and with the rise in aluminum prices, the company's earnings are highly elastic.
CHINAHONGQIAO (01378): In the fiscal year 2024, the after-tax profit (NPAT) increased by 95% year-on-year to 22.3 billion yuan. A final dividend of 1.02 HKD per share has been declared; the total annual dividend is 1.61 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 63% and a dividend yield of 11%. Considering that the aluminum demand has exceeded expectations from the beginning of the year, Bank of America has raised its aluminum price forecast for the fiscal year 2025 to 0.02 million yuan per ton, while the bauxite price assumption remains at 72 USD per ton.