On March 20, Financial Associated Press reported (editor: Xiaoxiang) that signs indicate the USA ports are about to be overwhelmed by a flood of imported Copper, as traders are rushing shipments before the tariffs that President Trump may impose take effect.

According to four industry insiders who understand the freight situation, it is expected that 0.1 million to -0.15 million tons of refined Copper will arrive in the USA over the next few weeks. If they all arrive in the same month, they are expected to exceed the historical record of 136,951 tons of U.S. monthly imports set in January 2022.

It is reported that commodity traders including Trafigura Group, Glencore Plc, and Gunvor Group are rerouting large quantities of Copper originally destined for Asia to the USA. Some insiders have indicated that due to the large volumes, traders are booking additional storage space in New Orleans and Baltimore to accommodate these goods.

The main reason for this situation is undoubtedly the order issued by Trump at the end of last month, instructing the U.S. Department of Commerce to launch an investigation into Copper tariffs on the grounds of National Security. Trump's previous statements regarding such tariffs have raised concerns in the market about whether shipments can be completed before the tariffs take effect, while the lengthy investigation by the Department of Commerce has actually provided a potential window for Metal Transportation.

Both Goldman Sachs and Citigroup currently expect that the USA will impose a 25% import tariff on Copper by the end of the year. Since Copper is an irreplaceable necessity, even with tariffs in place, U.S. Copper buyers will still have to continue procuring imported Metal—currently, U.S. consumption is twice its domestic production.

Many U.S. buyers are now seeking to increase purchases from countries such as Chile and Peru, and the market is generally hoarding Copper stocks. Given that Trump has threatened to impose blanket tariffs on two important neighboring trade partners, Metal from mines in Mexico and Canada may shift to the European market. Currently, the largest Copper supplier in the U.S. market—state-owned Copper giant Codelco—is working hard to meet the new demand after meeting U.S. customers in March.

Everyone believes that the demand for Copper is very strong, and all are asking Codelco for more Copper,” Codelco Director Maximo Pacheco said in an interview on March 13. This phenomenon is partly due to the 'public discussion about whether tariffs will be imposed on Copper.'

Copper premiums in New York have surged.

It is worth mentioning that, similar to the situation previously seen in the gold market, threats of tariffs and a sudden increase in demand are causing copper prices in the USA to be significantly higher than in other overseas markets.

Data shows that on Wednesday, the copper price difference between the COMEX and the London Metal Exchange (LME) broke through $1200 per ton, nearing the historical high set in mid-February. The premium level of 12% creates significant arbitrage motivation for traders and producers to continue transporting copper to the USA before the implementation of tariffs.

Potential tariffs could also disrupt the copper trade pattern between Chile and major economies in Asia, with China currently being the largest consumer of metals globally. Recently, after a short squeeze in the New York market last year, the volume of Chilean copper flowing to the USA has exceeded normal levels. If tariffs are implemented, this trade volume may remain high.

There are indications that the USA is currently becoming the preferred destination for copper sales by top global producers and traders, putting importers from other countries at a disadvantage.

This pattern creates a great opportunity for producers and traders to take advantage of price differences between the USA, Europe, and Asia for arbitrage. "Supply chains may face broader restructuring," said Citigroup Analyst Tom Mulqueen in an interview.

Goldman Sachs analysts expect that all forms of copper transportation to the USA will be subject to tariffs by the end of the year, which will keep New York copper prices at a high premium compared to other global benchmarks. Goldman Sachs had already predicted a supply gap of 0.18 million tons in the global copper market this year.

The good news is that we are seeing very clear and strong demand," said Codelco Director Pacheco, "and although faced with volatility and uncertainty, we have already experienced similar situations many times before.