Source: Securities Times
Author: Chen Xiachang
From March 17 to 21 local time, the GTC conference (GPU Technology Conference) hosted by NVIDIA was held in San Jose, California, USA.
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Founder and CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a speech at 1:00 AM Beijing time on March 19, focusing on the latest developments in AI and accelerated computing technology. Analysts expect that this GTC conference will boost investor confidence in NVIDIA.
Or release the latest chip.
NVIDIA's innovations in the chip field have always been the core attraction of the GTC conference. At last year's GTC conference, NVIDIA launched the next-generation AI chip 'Blackwell' and new software 'NIM' for running AI models. The Blackwell chip is composed of 208 billion transistors and has a training speed four times that of the H100, showcasing powerful computing performance.
The market expects NVIDIA to unveil the Blackwell Ultra (GB300 and B300 series) at the 2025 GTC conference. The Blackwell series focuses on higher computing power density and energy efficiency, aimed at supporting the demands of large-scale AI model training and inference. Additionally, NVIDIA will collaborate with leading companies such as IonQ and D-Wave to explore quantum hardware, algorithms, and commercialization pathways, showcasing the latest advancements of the next-generation Blackwell chip in the field of quantum computing.
At the recently concluded Earnings Reports meeting, Huang Renxun stated that Blackwell has "successfully achieved" mass production and has "realized billions of dollars in sales in the first quarter."
In addition, NVIDIA is expected to showcase the next-generation Rubin platform technology innovations, which are anticipated to use$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$the N3 process, configured with 8 HBM4 cubes, totaling 384GB, which represents a 33% increase over Blackwell Ultra.
Rubin Ultra is also expected to be released in 2027. This product may further push the boundaries of GPU design, potentially incorporating 12 HBM4E memory stacks. This is a significant increase from the 8 stacks used in previous generations, which may provide up to 576GB of total memory.
A report from Deutsche Bank indicates that considering the numerous changes anticipated in the Rubin roadmap (new process nodes, new CPUs, new HBM, new packaging technologies), the firm expects significant performance improvements with each generation of GPU platforms. Additionally, the firm suggests that due to potential significant changes in cost conditions, investors should pay attention to the pricing/profit trend of the new GPU platforms.
"China AI Day" gains attention.
Despite export restrictions, NVIDIA has been making every effort in the Chinese market. During this year's GTC conference, NVIDIA will hold an online special event for "China AI Day". The special event is scheduled to start broadcasting at 9:30 AM Beijing time on March 18th.
It is reported that this year's special events include ByteDance, Volcano Engine, Alibaba Cloud, $Baidu (BIDU.US)$ANT GROUP CO., LTD., $JD.com (JD.US)$ 、 $MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ 、 $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ Multiple domestic cloud and Internet companies such as Baichuan Intelligence, Laiye Technology, and VoteeAI will share their cutting-edge developments in the fields of large language models (LLM), multimodal large language models (MLLM), data science, and promotion. This includes topics such as Cloud Computing and Internet, design and simulation, Autos and autonomous driving, Siasun Robot&Automation, finance, Medical, retail, and showcases how to adopt hardware and Software collaborative optimization methods to achieve production-grade AI performance and efficiency improvements.
In the latest earnings report guidance for the 2025 fiscal year, NVIDIA indicated that revenue from the China market may see a quarter-on-quarter increase. Jensen Huang also mentioned that the revenue share from the China market is roughly the same as in the fourth quarter and in previous quarters, about half of what it was before export controls, but the share remains basically stable.
Where is NVIDIA's stock price heading?
Since reaching a historical high of $153 at the beginning of this year (post-adjustment), NVIDIA’s stock price has started to gradually decline. The decline from the beginning of the year to now is 10.98%, which exceeds the Large Cap index and other major tech stocks. Many investors hope that this GTC conference can stimulate NVIDIA's stock price to rise again.
Deutsche Bank maintained its 'Hold' rating for NVIDIA in its latest report, with a Target Price of $145.
Deutsche Bank expects that, similar to last year, this year's NVIDIA GTC conference will primarily focus on 'Datacenter' — this part of the business currently contributes about 90% of total revenue.
In terms of demand, the capital expenditure budgets of large computing clients (cloud service providers, consumer Internet companies, enterprises, sovereign entities) seem to remain strong in 2025 thus far (despite concerns about Scaling Law limitations, efficiency improvements, and XPU participation). Therefore, Deutsche Bank expects that the supply and demand environment will remain favorable for NVIDIA, at least in the short term.
In summary, Deutsche Bank expects NVIDIA to maintain its consistent optimistic tone at this GTC conference, continuing to pave the way for innovation in AI computation. The bank acknowledges that the overall market correction provides an interesting Buy point for NVIDIA's stocks, but the bank prefers to remain on the sidelines until macro volatility is eliminated, while having more confidence in the company's sustainable growth in the coming years.
JPMorgan's report predicts that humanoid robots and physical AI will be the highlights of this year's GTC conference. JPMorgan stated that for investors, this means NVIDIA will continue to lead AI Hardware innovation, and related industry chain companies are expected to benefit. However, investors also need to pay attention to the risk of slowing growth in Datacenter AI spending.
Currently, market sentiment towards AI remains pessimistic, with major concerns including the peak of Datacenter AI spending in 2025, competition between GPUs and ASICs, and downward adjustments in Taiwan Semiconductor CoWoS Orders. However, JPMorgan believes that the GTC conference should help revive positive sentiment in AI Stocks. In the long run, driven mainly by the increase in spending from US Cloud Computing vendors, the recovery of capital expenditure from China's CSPs, and the rise in enterprise-level AI demand, there is still room for growth in global AI capital expenditure by 2026.
Editor/Jeffy
