NVIDIA's investors are holding their breath, hoping that Jensen Huang's keynote speech at the GTC conference can bring enough optimism to sustain the recent rebound of the stock from its lows.

Investors are most concerned about the latest developments regarding the company's Blackwell product line, as well as comments on gross margin, the China market, competitors, and growth prospects. So far this year, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ the stock price has fallen over 12%, but the company has recently recovered from its lows in March.

Data shows that bottom-fishing investors have begun to re-enter the market, while NVIDIA's valuation is close to its lowest point in five years. Rhys Williams of Wayve Capital Management LLC stated:

"The concern among everyone regarding NVIDIA is that the company's current earnings may have peaked, and the performance in the second half of this year might not be as good as they outlined. Jensen Huang may reassure people, believing that everything is progressing smoothly and that the company is not in trouble."

The stock price is facing a critical moment: Can the GTC speech turn the tide?

At this conference, NVIDIA is expected to unveil details about a chip system named after the American astronomer Vera Rubin, who proposed the concept of dark matter, and mass production is expected to begin later this year.

Recently, the USA stock market has been sluggish due to adjustments in large Technology stocks, which had previously driven the market to new highs.

Uncertainties surrounding Trump’s tariffs, as well as concerns over large Technology companies' spending on AI, have negatively impacted market sentiment. Alec Young, Chief Investment Strategist at Mapsignals, stated:

The market holds a very skeptical attitude towards the stock. NVIDIA's current valuation, combined with its high expectations for revenue growth, indicates that the market believes this growth will not happen.

Furthermore, NVIDIA's main profit source is under pressure from technological changes, as the AI market is shifting from 'training' to 'inference'. NVIDIA holds over 90% market share and dominates the training market, but faces competition in inference—how much market share these competitors can capture will depend on the execution of inference calculations. Bob Beachler, Vice President of Untether AI, stated:

They (NVIDIA) have a hammer, and they are just building a bigger hammer. They dominate the (training) market, so every new chip they launch carries a substantial training burden.

Another important area of concern will be quantum computing. In January, Jensen Huang stated that this technology would take decades to mature, leading to a sharp decline in the stock prices of companies betting on this technology, and prompting Microsoft and Alphabet's Google to claim that the technology is very close to being practical.

Nevertheless, NVIDIA also has some positive factors. The Q4 Earnings Reports released last month showed that NVIDIA’s revenue grew by 78% in the fourth quarter, with Datacenter revenue increasing by 93%, both of which are the lowest growth rates in nearly two years but stronger than Analyst expectations.

For fiscal year 2026, Analysts expect the company's revenue to grow by 57%, and GAAP EPS to increase by 52%. Matt Stucky, Chief Portfolio Manager for Stocks at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, believes that if NVIDIA's stocks had been trading at the current PE a few years ago, it might indicate a greater downside risk than today.

If NVIDIA can achieve its performance guidance, with the Blackwell product line performing well, gross margin rebounding, and market demand remaining strong, then the company will have a chance to revive its stock price. Williams from Wayve Capital stated:

"If they execute as they say, this will prove to be a good Buy opportunity."

NVIDIA GTC 2025 keynote speech

Mar 18 17:00

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