Focus on the Hong Kong and US stock earnings season

A visual preview | PDD Holdings' performance will be announced on Thursday! Q4 revenue may increase by more than 30% year-on-year, and the trend of profit margin quarter-over-quarter has become a focus of market attention.

$拼多多 (PDD.US)$ 将于3月20日周四美股盘前公布业绩，机构预计拼多多Q4实现营收1157.74亿元，同比增加30.26%；每股收益16.89元，同比增加6.7%。

回顾上一季度业绩，拼多多Q3营收同比增长44%至994亿元，低于市场预期；归母净利润同比增长61%至250亿元，但环比下滑22%。同时在Q3电话会上，拼多多联席CEO赵佳臻表示，受限于平台的运营模式和团队的历史经验局限和能力不足，预计公司相对于同行的劣势将在一段时间内显著存在，带来的财务影响可能会进一步扩大。受以上因素影响，拼多多公布Q3业绩当日股价收跌超10%。

展望四季度，拼多多的收入增速以及利润率环比趋势是投资者的关注重点。此外，投资者还需关注公司关于特朗普关税政策对Temu影响的相关信息。

在线营销服务收入以及利润率的环比趋势为关注重点

拼多多的交易服务收入主要包括国内佣金和来自Temu的海外收入。摩根大通认为该项收入将放缓，但由于信息披露有限，因此可重点关注代表国内GMV增长水平的在线营销服务收入。该行的渠道调查显示，2024年Q4拼多多的国内GMV同比增速超过20%，因此在线营销服务收入的合理同比增幅应为20%-24%（2024年Q3同比增长24%）。

此外，公司从去年夏天开始采取措施减少对商家的变现，造成2024年Q3调整后营业利润率环比降9个百分点至27%。摩根大通认为，由于仍在降低变现水平，市场预计Q4利润率将环比改善的概率较低，因此营业利润率/净利润率环比上升可能被视为重大意外利好并支持估值上调。虽然利润率预计将环比小幅下滑（市场预期Q4调整后净利润率将下降3个百分点），但摩根大通认为利润率环比降幅更加显著（如超5个百分点）将成为负面因素并造成2025年盈利预测下调。

关注特朗普关税政策对Temu影响的相关指引

2月4日，美国总统特朗普对中国商品10%的关税生效，同时取消小包裹免税政策。虽然政令生效三天后，因来自中国的包裹积压过多美国海关无法处理等原因，特朗普又宣布暂停执行对中国小额包裹征税的政策。不过，特朗普的反复已充分说明，政策的“锤头”随时会再次砸下来。

据中信证券计算，如果美国政府取消对中国商品的小额包裹豁免政策，同时加上对中国商品新增加的10%关税，Temu上一件原来售价40美元的商品，价格将提高1/4，达到50美元左右。亚马逊上同样价格的商品会从67美元提高到69美元。也就是说，尽管Temu上的商品涨价幅度会更大，但就同样一件商品，Temu上的价格依然比亚马逊上的价格低不少。

整体来看，投资者可关注公司关于特朗普关税政策对Temu的相关指引表述，以及未来业务是否会有相关应对策略。

历次财报日股价如何表现？

当前，拼多多的隐含变动为±9.45%，表明期权市场押注其绩后单日涨跌幅达9.45%；对比来看，拼多多前4季度的绩后平均股价变动为±10.9%，显示该股当前期权价值被低估。

在过去12次业绩发布日中，拼多多股价表现好的概率较高，12次中有9次收涨，业绩日股价平均收益为±13.3%。但对于此次绩后变动方向，期权波动率偏度数据显示，本次市场略微倾向于略微看跌。

拼多多2024 Q4及全年财报直播

03/20 11:30

预约

想快速找到业绩重点？牛友们可以通过市场> 美股>业绩> 业绩速递，业绩速递帮你一网打尽！

编辑/Jeffy

$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ The performance will be announced before the Pre-Market Trading on March 20th, Thursday. Institutions expect PDD Holdings to achieve revenue of 115.774 billion yuan in Q4, a year-on-year increase of 30.26%; EPS of 16.89 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%.

Looking back at the previous quarter's performance, PDD Holdings Q3 revenue grew 44% year-on-year to 99.4 billion yuan, lower than market expectations; the net income attributable to shareholders grew 61% year-on-year to 25 billion yuan, but decreased 22% quarter-on-quarter. Meanwhile, in the Q3 conference call, PDD Holdings co-CEO Zhao Jiazhen stated that due to the limitations of the platform's operation model and the historical experience of the team, the company is expected to significantly face disadvantages compared to peers for some time, and the resulting financial impact may further expand. Affected by the above factors, PDD Holdings' stock price fell more than 10% on the day the Q3 results were announced.

Looking ahead to Q4, the revenue growth rate and profit margin trend of PDD Holdings are key concerns for investors. Additionally, investors should pay attention to information regarding the impact of Trump's tariff policies on Temu.

The revenue from online marketing services and the quarter-on-quarter trend of profit margins are key points of attention.

PDD Holdings' transaction service revenue primarily includes domestic commissions and overseas income from Temu. JPMorgan believes this revenue will slow down, but due to limited information disclosure, attention should be focused on the online marketing service revenue representing the level of domestic GMV growth. The bank's channel survey indicates that in Q4 2024, PDD Holdings' domestic GMV will grow over 20% year-on-year, thus the reasonable year-on-year increase in online marketing service revenue should be 20%-24% (with a year-on-year growth of 24% in Q3 2024).

Furthermore, the company started taking measures last summer to reduce monetization of merchants, resulting in a 9 percentage point quarter-on-quarter decrease in adjusted operating margin to 27% in Q3 2024. JPMorgan believes that due to the continued reduction of monetization levels, the market expects a low probability of improving profit margins in Q4, therefore, an increase in operating margin/net margin quarter-on-quarter may be considered a significant unexpected bullish factor and support valuation adjustments. Although margins are expected to decline slightly quarter-on-quarter (the market expects a 3 percentage point decrease in adjusted net margin for Q4), JPMorgan believes a more significant margin decline (e.g., over 5 percentage points) could be a negative factor and lead to a downward adjustment in earnings forecasts for 2025.

Focus on the relevant guidance regarding the impact of Trump's tariff policies on Temu.

On February 4th, President Trump of the USA announced the implementation of a 10% tariff on Chinese commodities while canceling the tax exemption policy for small packages. Although three days after the decree was implemented, due to the backlog of packages from China that US Customs could not process, Trump announced the suspension of the policy imposing taxes on small packages from China. However, Trump's inconsistency has clearly indicated that the policy's "hammer" may strike again at any time.

According to calculations by CITIC SEC, if the US government cancels the exemption policy for small packages from China and adds a new 10% tariff on Chinese goods, a product originally priced at $40 on Temu will increase in price by 1/4, reaching around $50. Similarly priced products on Amazon will rise from $67 to $69. In other words, although the price increase on Temu will be larger, for the same product, the price on Temu will still be significantly lower than on Amazon.

Overall, investors should pay attention to the company's guidance regarding Trump's tariff policy on Temu and whether there will be corresponding strategies for future operations.

How did the stock price perform on earnings report days?

Currently, the implied volatility of PDD Holdings is ±9.45%, indicating that the options market is betting on a one-day price fluctuation of 9.45% after the Earnings Reports; in comparison, the average stock price fluctuation of PDD Holdings in the last four quarters after the Earnings Reports was ±10.9%, showing that the current options value of this stock is undervalued.

In the past 12 performance release days, PDD Holdings has had a higher probability of good stock price performance, with 9 out of 12 instances closing higher, and the average return on stock price on performance release days was ±13.3%. However, regarding the direction of this post-performance price movement, the skewness of the options volatility data shows that the market is slightly inclined to be somewhat bearish this time.

PDD Holdings 2024 Q4 and annual performance live broadcast.

Mar 20 11:30

Book

Want to quickly find the key points of the performance? Mooers can do this throughMarket > USA > Earnings > Earnings Express.Earnings Express helps you capture everything in one go!

Editor/Jeffy

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.