Wilson表示，除非“特朗普2.0”议程开始提供增长动力（减税、放松监管、减少市场挤出效应），或美联储再度降息，否则美股走势不太可能反转。
Wilson believes that the S&P 500 rose to 5,500 points last week.Support.This has opened a "tradable rebound," but it is not a sustainable bull market. Earnings revisions are the key factors affecting market trends; unless the "Trump 2.0" agenda starts to provide growth momentum (tax cuts, deregulation, reduction of market crowding effects), or the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again, the trend of U.S. stocks is unlikely to reverse.
Morgan Stanley's Wilson states that a market rebound has begun, but its durability is in question, and Trump and the Federal Reserve are crucial.
Recently, Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson stated that the tradable rebound that started last Friday has been initiated, and the market adjustment may have come to an end, but this rebound is more likely just a tradable rebound rather than a sustained bull market.
Wilson states that unless the "Trump 2.0" agenda begins to provide growth momentum (tax cuts, deregulation, reduction of market crowding effects), or the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again, the trend of U.S. stocks is unlikely to reverse.
Overbought signs are evident, the S&P has risen to the 5,500-point Resistance.
Wilson notes that overbought signs are evident, and the S&P has risen to the 5,500-point Resistance, indicating that the U.S. stock market has begun to rebound.
The article shows that the current market's oversold level is the highest since 2022, sentiment indicators have improved, and seasonal factors are favorable for profit corrections and stock prices in the second half of March. The weakening dollar is also expected to provide support for the earnings season and earnings guidance.
Wilson stated:
“我们坚持认为$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$的5500点将为由低质量、高风险股票领衔的可交易性反弹提供支撑，因为这些股票此前跌幅最大。而周五的价格走势显示反弹可能已经开始，此前标普500指数在周四交易至5505点。”
The more important question is whether such a rebound signals the end of volatility since the beginning of the year. Wilson believes that this rebound is more likely just a tradable bounce rather than a sustained bull market.
Wilson pointed out that fromFrom a technical perspective,a perspective, the major indices have been severely damaged, losing more than 10% compared to similar adjustments last summer.
Specifically, the S&P 500 Index,$NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$as well as the E-mini Russell 1000 Growth and Value Index have both fallen below their respective 200-day moving averages, with many stocks experiencing a correction close to 20%, while low qualityE-mini Russell 2000 IndexIt has fallen below the 200-week moving average, marking the first time since the bear market of 2022-2023.
"Even if this technical damage does not lead to further price declines at the index level, recovery will take time."
Earnings revisions are a key factor; both Trump and the Federal Reserve are indispensable.
Wilson believes that it is unlikely to make new highs in the current rebound before the resistance facing growth stocks is reversed or monetary policy is loosened again.
This means that unless the "Trump 2.0" agenda starts to provide growth impetus (tax cuts, deregulation, reducing market crowding effects), or the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again, the performance of US stocks is unlikely to reverse.
"In my opinion, relying solely on an oversold market cannot provide more upward momentum beyond a tradable rebound."
"We firmly believe that earnings revisions are the most important variable, and although we may see seasonal strengthening or stabilization of revisions, we believe it will take several quarters to restore a positive upward trend."
Wilson expects that policy changes aimed at encouraging growth may come in the later part of the second half of the year, but this is too far off for the market to anticipate at this moment; the Federal Reserve may have to wait until the economy or Crediting environment further deteriorates before cutting interest rates, and it will take some time for these cuts to stabilize the stock market.
Editor/Rocky
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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