According to a previous announcement from the National News Agency, today the State Council Information Office will hold two press conferences to introduce the national economic operation for January and February and measures to boost consumption.

On the international market front, this week, global markets will welcome "Super Central Bank Week," with over 20 central banks announcing their latest policy interest rates. The Federal Reserve will announce its March interest rate decision early Thursday morning.

Today, two important press conferences will be held.

According to the announcement by the National News Agency, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference at 10 AM on March 17, 2025 (Monday), inviting the spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and the Director-General of the Comprehensive Statistics Department to introduce the national economic operation for January and February 2025 and answer questions from reporters.

The announcement from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that today, it will release economic data for January and February, including industrial value added above the scale, retail consumption, Real Estate Development investment, urban fixed asset investment, unemployment rate, etc. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics will also publish the monthly report of the commodity residential sales price index for February 2025.

Meanwhile, at 3 PM today, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference, inviting the Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Li Chunlin, along with relevant officials from the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the State Administration for Market Regulation to introduce measures to boost consumption and answer questions from reporters.

Recently, the General Office of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," which outlines a series of strong and widespread measures aimed at enhancing consumption capacity, releasing consumption willingness, optimizing the consumption environment, and addressing consumption bottlenecks, further improving the system and mechanism for promoting consumption, opening new spaces in the consumption market, and accelerating the transformation of China's economic growth model towards a greater focus on consumption.

Last Friday, the A-share market surged strongly, with the SSE Composite Index breaking through the 3400-point mark, closing at 3419.56 points, and reaching a high of 3421.23 points during the day, setting a new high for the year. On that day, the CSI Consumer 360 index and non-bank financial sectors rose strongly, significantly boosting market sentiment and changing the recent tech dominance in the market. Data showed that various industries in the CSI Consumer 360 index, including liquor, food and beverage, hotel dining, and commercial chains, had leading gains, indicating strong market expectations for boosting consumer spending in the future. Additionally, under expectations of monetary easing, sectors such as Insurance and Brokerage also performed strongly, resonating with the CSI Consumer 360 index.

This week, the international market will welcome a 'Super Central Bank Week.'

In the international market this week, global markets will face a 'Super Central Bank Week,' with over 20 central banks announcing their latest policy rates.

The most watched Federal Reserve will announce its March rate decision early Thursday, while also updating economic expectations and the 'dot plot' for interest rate projections. Currently, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the interest rate unchanged this week.

On March 12 local time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the U.S. February CPI data. The unadjusted CPI for February rose 2.8% year-on-year, a new low since November last year; February's seasonally adjusted CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, a new low since October last year. The unadjusted core CPI for February (excluding food and Energy) increased by 3.1% year-on-year, a new low since April 2021; the seasonally adjusted core CPI in February increased by 0.2% month-on-month, a new low since December last year, with several data points falling below expectations.

Data from CME 'FedWatch' indicates that after the CPI data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining its interest rate unchanged in March is 97.0%, while the probability of a 25 basis points cut is 3.0%; however, by May, the probability of maintaining the current rate unchanged has decreased from 67.0% to 60.5%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis points cut has increased from 32.1% to 38.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis points cut has increased from 0.9% to 1.1%.

'The CPI release for February indicates further progress on basic inflation, with the pace of price increases easing following strong data in January.' Kay Haigh, Co-Head of Global Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions at Goldman Sachs, stated in an email to clients, 'While the Federal Reserve may still hold steady during this month's meeting, the combination of easing inflationary pressures and rising downside risks to growth indicates that the Federal Reserve is currently closer to continuing its easing cycle.'

Last week, the Dow Jones dropped 3.07%, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.27%, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 2.43%. The Dow recorded its largest weekly decline since March 2023, and the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq have fallen for the fourth consecutive week. According to a report from the U.S. Consumer News and Business Channel on March 14, over the last three weeks, the Market Cap of the 'Magnificent 7' in U.S. stocks has evaporated by 2.7 trillion dollars. U.S. economists and market participants are concerned that under the escalating 'tariff chaos' of the Trump administration, the U.S. economy may face 'recession' or even 'stagflation.'

Apart from the Federal Reserve, Japan, the United Kingdom, and other central banks will successively hold monetary policy meetings, and multiple central banks including Swiss Franc, Sweden, and Brazil will also announce their interest rate decisions.

Among them, the Bank of Japan will announce its March interest rate decision on Wednesday, and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will subsequently hold a monetary policy press conference. Currently, economists generally expect that the Bank of Japan will maintain the benchmark interest rate in March, and the next rate hike is likely to occur in the third quarter.

The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday. In February of this year, the Bank of England lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points, and currently, most economists expect that the Bank of England will remain unchanged at this meeting.

Editor/jayden