Evoke Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:EVOK) just released its latest yearly results and things are looking bullish. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of US$10m leading estimates by 2.2%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystexpected, coming in at US$2.81 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what expert is forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Evoke Pharma's lone analyst is for revenues of US$16.0m in 2025. This would reflect a huge 56% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share statutory losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.81 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analyst had been modelling revenues of US$20.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.48 in 2025. There looks to have been a major change in sentiment regarding Evoke Pharma's prospects following the latest results, with a large cut to revenues and the analyst now forecasting a loss instead of a profit.

The average price target fell 79% to US$18.00, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Evoke Pharma's valuation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Evoke Pharma'shistorical trends, as the 56% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 64% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 8.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that Evoke Pharma is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analyst is expecting Evoke Pharma to become unprofitable next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analyst also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Evoke Pharma is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are a bit unpleasant...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.