According to a report from Financial Network on March 16 (Editor Liu Rui), the Global financial market is about to welcome the highly anticipated "Central Bank Super Week"—during the week of March 17, major central banks from the USA, Japan, and the United Kingdom will successively hold monetary policy meetings, and several central banks including the Swiss Franc, Sweden, and Brazil will also announce interest rate decisions.

This "Central Bank Super Week" is particularly significant—central bank officials from various countries will collectively assess the impact of President Trump's trade policies on the economy for the first time.

Although since Trump took office in January, the central bank officials from the USA, the United Kingdom, and Japan have held one interest rate decision meeting, that was before Trump's tariff policies truly took effect—recently, Trump's remarks and measures regarding Global trade and tariffs have markedly escalated and have triggered a financial market uproar.

As Trump's "tariff stick" continuously tests the resilience of Global trade and economies, central bank officials urgently need to clarify whether these tariff policies have a greater impact on economic growth or on inflation—before making a determination, they are likely to choose to refrain from taking actions impulsively.

It is expected that the Federal Reserve may release more easing signals this week, while maintaining interest rates unchanged is the most likely outcome in the interest rate decision meetings of Japan, the United Kingdom, and Sweden. The central bank officials from South Africa, Russia, and Indonesia may follow their lead.

Federal Reserve: Expected to remain steady.

At 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce the March interest rate decision and the latest interest rate dot plot, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference half an hour after the announcement—this is clearly the most anticipated highlight of this "Central Bank Super Week."

Currently, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week. Powell emphasized earlier this month that the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to cut rates.

However, in the context of the recent sharp decline in the US stock market, growing concerns about US economic growth, and declining consumer confidence, the Federal Reserve will surely face pressure and must seriously consider a major question: Is the Federal Reserve prepared to intervene once the US economy declines?

Therefore, investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's decision statement, economic forecast, dot plot, and various signals from Powell's speech to find out the Federal Reserve's expectations for rate cuts later this year. If Powell expresses concerns about the outlook for the US economy, and if the dot plot and economic forecasts indicate more expectations for rate cuts, it is anticipated that the US dollar, which has already been weakening recently, may continue to decline.

According to a Bloomberg survey, economists currently expect that the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in September, potentially reducing rates twice within this year. However, given the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies, the future monetary policy trajectory of the Federal Reserve is likely to face numerous variables.

Bank of Japan: The path to interest rate hikes is once again unclear.

On Wednesday Beijing time, the Bank of Japan will announce its March interest rate decision, and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will subsequently hold a monetary policy press conference.

In January this year, with rising domestic wage levels and persistent inflation expectations, the Bank of Japan just ended its years-long negative interest rate policy and raised rates for the first time in over a decade - this move was interpreted by the market as a signal of a turning point for the Japanese economy.

However, after Trump took office, the external economic environment faced by Japan changed dramatically, making the previously clear monetary policy path of the Bank of Japan once again shrouded in uncertainty.

Japan's economy is highly dependent on exports, so the impact of Trump's tariffs on its economy is clearly significant. More importantly, economists point out that the uncertainty in the external environment brought by Trump's administration will make it difficult for Japanese companies to plan investments and production, putting downward pressure on capital expenditure.

The latest survey shows that economists generally expect the Bank of Japan to maintain the benchmark interest rate in March, with the next rate hike likely occurring in the third quarter.

Bank of the United Kingdom: Could Trump's tariffs accelerate interest rate cuts?

The Bank of the United Kingdom will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday. In February of this year, the Bank of the United Kingdom cut interest rates by 25 basis points, while most economists expect it to remain unchanged at this meeting.

However, it is noteworthy that at the February meeting, the Bank of the United Kingdom lowered its economic growth forecast and raised its inflation predictions, while two members voted in favor of a 50 basis point rate cut—indicating concerns among Bank of the United Kingdom officials about the future of the United Kingdom's economy.

Despite the fact that since February, the performance of economic data in the United Kingdom has generally exceeded expectations, leading the market to anticipate that the pace of future rate cuts by the bank may slow down, last week a statement from the Bank of the United Kingdom’s hawkish official Catherine Mann once again made the market nervous: she stated that Trump's tariffs and fluctuations in the financial markets mean that policymakers need to take more decisive actions.

Therefore, although the market still expects the Bank of the United Kingdom not to make any policy adjustments next week, if more policy committee members reveal similar dovish positions in Thursday's interest rate decision statement, it may weigh on the British Pound; conversely, if the Bank of the United Kingdom pays more attention to the risk of uncontrolled inflation, the British Pound may further rise.

Editor/Rocky