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How Bitcoin, Ethereum Have Outperformed The S&P 500 Since 2020: Report

How Bitcoin, Ethereum Have Outperformed The S&P 500 Since 2020: Report

比特幣和以太幣自2020年以來如何超過S&P 500:報告
Benzinga ·  03/14 19:09

A new report from Copper.co, a Swiss-based digital asset service provider, highlights a significant alignment between Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) and the S&P 500.

來自Copper.co的最新報告,瑞士一家數字資產服務供應商,突顯了比特幣(CRYPTO: BTC)、以太幣(CRYPTO: ETH)與S&P 500之間的顯著一致性。

What Happened: The report notes that both cryptocurrencies have achieved an 83% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) since their 2020 lows, compared to the S&P 500's 20% CAGR over the same period.

發生了什麼:報告指出這兩種加密貨幣自2020年低點以來的年複合增長率(CAGR)達到了83%,而同期S&P 500的CAGR爲20%。

The findings come as Ethereum briefly dipped below a key trendline on the five-year anniversary of Black Thursday but closed above it, raising questions about its ability to maintain this level.

研究結果顯示,在黑色星期四五週年紀念日,以太幣短暫跌破一個關鍵趨勢線,但最終收盤高於該線,這引發了人們對其能否維持這一水平的質疑。

Copper.co's analysis details the performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum over the past five years, with Bitcoin dropping from $94,265 on March 3 to $80,699 by March 10, and Ethereum falling from $2,518 to $2,020 over the same period, according to data sourced from Copper Calc and TradingView.

Copper.co的分析詳細說明了比特幣和以太幣在過去五年的表現,根據從中國飛機租賃和TradingView獲取的數據,比特幣從3月3日的$94,265下降到3月10日的$80,699,而以太幣則從$2,518降至$2,020。

Despite these declines, both assets have shown identical long-term growth since March 13, 2020, with Bitcoin's closing price CAGR at 70%, just 1% above Ethereum's.

儘管這些資產出現了下跌,但自2020年3月13日以來,兩者的長期增長完全一致,比特幣的收盤價格CAGR爲70%,比以太幣高出1%。

The S&P 500, currently in correction territory, mirrors patterns observed in 2020, suggesting a possible market shift.

目前處於修正區間的S&P 500反映出2020年觀察到的模式,這表明市場可能會發生變化。

"Ethereum and Bitcoin have tracked remarkably similar growth trajectories since their 2020 lows, with both delivering an 83% CAGR," Fadi Aboualfa, Copper.co's Head of Research told Benzinga, adding, "The S&P 500's correction echoes patterns seen in 2020, which suggests a potential turning point and raises optimism levels for investors looking for a bounce."

「自2020年低點以來,以太幣和比特幣的增長軌跡極爲相似,均實現了83%的CAGR,」Copper.co的研究負責人Fadi Aboualfa對Benzinga表示,並補充道:「S&P 500的修正反映出2020年所見的模式,這表明可能會出現轉折點,並提升了希望投資者能夠反彈的樂觀情緒。」

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Why It Matters: The report also explores Bitcoin's relationship with the M2 Global Liquidity Index, which has historically correlated with Bitcoin's price movements at an average of 0.82 since 2015, with a typical lag of 10 to 14 weeks.

爲什麼這很重要:該報告還探討了比特幣與M2全球流動性指數的關係,自2015年以來,該指數與比特幣價格變動的平均相關性爲0.82,通常滯後10至14周。

The most recent M2 cycle bottomed on Jan. 10, indicating Bitcoin may trade sideways until late March or April, based on 70-day and 100-day lags, respectively.

最近的M2週期在1月10日觸底,這表明根據70天和100天滯後,比特幣可能在3月底或4月之前交投震盪。

Copper.co noted this timeframe aligns with prior studies, including its Market Cap vs. Realized Market Cap analysis and Bitcoin price simulations, which suggest a potential price peak of $160,000 by May or June, when markets might overheat.

Copper.co指出,這個時間框架與之前的研究一致,包括其市值與實際市值分析以及比特幣價格模擬,後者表明到5月或6月可能出現16萬美元的價格峰值,屆時市場可能會過熱。

However, the report cautions that M2 must continue rising to sustain this trend, a factor often overlooked in such analyses.

然而,報告警告稱,M2必須繼續上升才能維持這種趨勢,這是在此類分析中經常被忽視的一個因素。

From a portfolio perspective, Copper.co applies Modern Portfolio Theory, finding that Bitcoin's 70% annualized volatility, a 4% risk-free rate, and a 0.25 correlation with the S&P 500 suggest an optimal allocation of 18% Bitcoin to maximize the Sharpe Ratio.

從投資組合的角度來看,Copper.co應用現代投資組合理論,發現比特幣年化波動率爲70%,無風險利率爲4%,與S&P 500的相關性爲0.25,這表明最優配置應爲18%的比特幣,以最大化夏普比率。

"As of today, the risk-to-return symmetry is striking. With the S&P 500 delivering a 20% CAGR over the past five years, this implies a 4:1 risk-reward ratio compared to crypto assets," Aboualfa stated, emphasizing the potential for balanced investment strategies.

「截至目前,風險與收益的對稱性十分顯著。在過去五年中,S&P 500提供了20%的年複合增長率,這意味着與加密資產相比,風險回報比爲4:1,」Aboualfa表示,強調了平衡投資策略的潛力。

The report, intended for institutional and professional clients, includes a disclaimer that digital assets carry high risks and may not be suitable for all investors, reflecting Copper.co's adherence to Swiss financial regulations.

該報告面向機構和專業客戶,包括一項免責聲明,指出數字資產具有高風險,可能不適合所有投資者,反映出Copper.co遵循瑞士金融法規。

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Image: Shutterstock

圖片: Shutterstock

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
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