港股消费股此前已持续低迷多年，而近期以$MIXUE GROUP (02097.HK)$ and $LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK)$ 为首的“新消费”巨头带领一众消费股突出重围，推动着消费行业的估值修复。

机构指出这可能反映出行业板块的年度轮动特点，此前在港股市场上资金更重视AI赛道，而今年正在倾向于出击更具吸引力且被市场抛弃已久的消费股。

值得注意的是，近期港股通标的名单迎来新一轮调整，27只新调入股票正式生效。其中包括 $MAO GEPING (01318.HK)$ 、 $CR BEVERAGE (02460.HK)$ 、 $WL DELICIOUS (09985.HK)$ 、$XIAOCAIYUAN (00999.HK)$And many consumer companies.

In addition, since the beginning of this year, many local governments have launched "policy packages" beneficial to the people and enterprises, distributing various consumption vouchers. Industry insiders believe that these measures are expected to stimulate a new wave of consumer enthusiasm, and consumer-related listed companies may directly benefit.

MIXUE Group and Laopu Gold lead the rise, is the Hong Kong stock consumer industry gaining strength?

Futu News has selected companies from the Hong Kong stock market that have performed prominently in the consumer sub-sector this year, with a market cap > 10 billion HKD and top increases from the beginning of the year to date (as of the market close on March 11, 2025), for mooer reference:

Specifically:

• Food & Dining

MIXUE Group's stock price doubled in the 7 days since its listing, having risen nearly 108%, with a latest total market cap of approximately 150 billion HKD.

Soochow Securities believes that the core value of MIXUE Group lies not in the "tea beverage track" but in "MIXUE's dominance within the track." MIXUE has over 40,000 stores in China, while other tea beverage brands generally have around 3,000 to 9,000 stores, showing a significant gap. "The ability to open stores" means that franchisees can make money with this brand. Based on this, MIXUE has opened an average of 7,000 stores per year over the past two years, which also reflects MIXUE's brand dominance. A strong brand power is necessary for sustained store openings and reaching this number of stores; brands with strong dominance are likely to enjoy higher valuations.

In addition,$WL DELICIOUS (09985.HK)$ 、$GUMING (01364.HK)$ Since the beginning of the year, it has risen by over 50%. $DPC DASH (01405.HK)$ It has risen nearly 35%. $CR BEVERAGE (02460.HK)$ It has risen by over 29%.

Dongxing Securities stated that dining consumption is expected to be boosted. Bullish on future policies to promote reforms in consumption environment, transaction environment, and policy environment, optimistic about the overall improvement of performance in the food and beverage industry. Especially for dining consumption, as the plan is implemented, consumption in tourism, shopping districts, and offline experiences will be boosted, leading to a significant increase in dining consumption. Meanwhile, it is expected that local consumption subsidies will also increase subsidies for the dining industry, positively assisting the dining sector.

• Autos

Continuously in high demand, this year welcomes a "big year for products"!$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$Since the beginning of the year, it has accumulated an increase of nearly 109%.

$XPeng (XPEV.US)$Previously announced sales for February 2025, with XIAOMI delivery volume of 30,453 vehicles in February, a significant year-on-year growth of 570%, taking the lead in delivery volume for new forces for two consecutive months. 2025 will be a big year for XIAOMI, with plans to launch new or upgraded models every quarter. Additionally, XIAOMI announced that the 2025 spring launch event will be held on March 13 at 19:00, where the 2025 models XIAOMI G6 and XIAOMI G9 will be officially unveiled.

$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$ Cumulatively increased by over 56%, with the stock price repeatedly reaching new highs.

Goldman Sachs believes that XIAOMI-W, with its continuous investment in AI technology and the advancement of the 'people × cars × home' ecosystem strategy, by building an operating system-level AI assistant - Xiao Ai and the largest AIoT ecosystem globally, is expected to stand out in the AI era. Goldman Sachs has significantly raised XIAOMI-W's 12-month Target Price from HKD 38 to HKD 58.

First quarterly profit achieved!$LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$ Cumulatively increased by nearly 50%.

On the news front, LEAPMOTOR recently announced its performance for 2024, with revenue of RMB 32.164 billion, an increase of 92.06% year-on-year; the company's loss attributable to equity holders for the year decreased by 33.1% year-on-year. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the company turned a net profit of RMB 0.08 billion, achieving its goal of turning a quarterly net profit positive one year in advance, becoming the second company among new car manufacturers to achieve profitability.

In addition, $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$ Cumulative increase of over 31%. $LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$ Cumulative increase of over 20%.

• Gold and Jewelry.

Hong Kong stocks' 'stock price king.'$LAOPU GOLD (06181.HK)$ Since the beginning of the year, it has surged over 187%.

The price of Lao Pu Gold has successively surpassed that of the former 'stock king.'$TENCENT (00700.HK)$Together with TENCENT, currently firmly holds the title of "top stock price" in the Hong Kong stock market.

SWHY stated that Laopu Gold deeply cultivates the ancient method gold sector, committed to creating a high-end brand of Chinese ancient method gold with high cultural value and strong international competitiveness. In the current gold jewelry market, positioning in high-end channels, products, and brand recognition is rare, and it is expected to fully benefit from the rise of high-end gold consumption under the resurgence of national trends, as well as future growth opportunities for China's high-end consumer brands going overseas.

A well-established Gold giant.$CHOW TAI FOOK (01929.HK)$ An increase of over 35%.

Regarding the Gold and Jewelry industry, Morgan Stanley released Research Reports indicating that since mid-2023, a cautious attitude has been maintained towards the mainland jewelry market. However, its recent consumer survey found that the rapid growth of Gold Trinkets is driven by product upgrades, improved demand for gems, and high-end trends, which benefit high-end local brands and foreign Luxury Goods brands in capturing market share from mass-market and unbranded jewelry.

• Toys.

"China's version of LEGO"$BLOKS (00325.HK)$ Has increased by over 94% since the beginning of the year.

According to reports, after debuting at one of the world's three major toy fairs, the Nuremberg Toy Fair in Germany in January 2025, Brio will once again make an appearance at the New York Toy Fair in March.

Tianfeng Securities released a research report stating that the New York Toy Fair is hosted by the American Toy Association and is the largest in the Americas and one of the three major toy fairs in the world. Brio's participation is a strong testament to its global innovation and influence. With powerful R&D capabilities and an innovative product system, Brio follows a strategic direction of "all demographics, all price ranges, global" and steadily advances its globalization pace from the Singapore Animation Expo to the Nuremberg Toy Fair and then to the New York International Toy Fair.

$POP MART (09992.HK)$ Has increased by over 33%, with a total market cap surpassing 150 billion HKD.

Morgan Stanley stated in the latest Research Reports that the plush bag charms launched by POP MART are leading a new trend and could open up a market larger than 'collectibles.'

Moreover, Citigroup released a Research Report stating that China's IP commodity market has enormous growth potential, as its per capita consumption expenditure remains lower compared to Developed Markets. The licensing business is deeply connected to all consumer sectors, providing extensive opportunities to realize the commercial value of IP, with IP commodities being a major avenue. The bank sees that high-quality IP supply, product innovation, and supply chain capabilities will drive the upward potential of IP consumption. The bank reiterated its "Buy" rating on POP MART, with a Target Price of 120 HKD, due to its ability to nurture successful proprietary/exclusive IP.

• Cosmetic

Hong Kong stocks "the first domestic color cosmetics company"$MAO GEPING (01318.HK)$ It has risen over 79% year-to-date.

According to the announcements from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Mao Ge Ping has officially been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective from March 10. CSC pointed out that as a scarce local brand with strong brand power in Consumer, along with outstanding profitability and the rarity of the symbol, its inclusion is expected to further open up funding channels.

Institutions pointed out that Mao Ge Ping is in a rapid growth phase of brand potential, being Bullish on the company's rare brand value, category structure, channel endowments, and future growth potential. In the short term, the company's high-frequency data is impressive, laying a strong fundamental support; in the medium to long term, extending into categories such as perfumes and creating a multi-brand matrix is expected to bring a new growth curve.

A giant in the medical beauty and skincare sector. $GIANT BIOGENE (02367.HK)$ Cumulatively increased by nearly 46%, the domestic beauty giant. $CHICMAX (02145.HK)$ Cumulatively increased by over 33%.

From a catalytic perspective, the rise of the Consumer Sector may be a result of policy support and market sentiment resonance.

At this year's National Two Sessions, the issue of consumption once again became the focus. In this year's "Government Work Report," the term "consumption" appeared 32 times. Among the top ten tasks to be completed this year, "vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and comprehensively expanding domestic demand" is placed first. 32 times, first item, which shows the importance of consumption for current economic development.

According to a research report by China Merchants, recent statements regarding consumption made during the two sessions are relatively positive. The growth rate of fiscal expenditure in 2025 is expected to hit a five-year high, and subsequent special plans to boost consumption are likely to further stimulate demand, potentially allowing consumption to phase in a leading performance over technology.

What do institutions think?

Multiple institutions have pointed out that the strong rebound in Consumer stocks is closely related to the domestic policies promoting consumption and the recovery of residents' purchasing power, believing that the Consumer Sector still has upward potential.

Guoyuan Securities believes that sub-sectors such as Smart Home and New Retail are expected to stimulate new growth points under AI technology and policy support. For example, the integration of generative AI with consumer scenarios can enhance user experience, while policies like "trade-in" directly stimulate demand for large purchases such as appliances and Autos.

Galaxy Securities has pointed out that after Trump's election, the importance of the logic for domestic self-control in Technology in China has increased. With the current policies to expand domestic demand and stabilize consumption, Consumer stocks in the Hong Kong market, currently valued relatively low, are expected to rise.

CITIC SEC's Research Reports indicate that between 2019 and 2022, the PE levels of Consumer and Technology sectors in Hong Kong and US stocks were relatively close, but since then, the valuation premium of US stocks compared to Hong Kong stocks in corresponding sectors has continued to widen. Currently, the dynamic PE of the Consumer sector in Hong Kong is only half that of US stocks, showing a significant cost-effectiveness in horizontal comparison.

Some industry insiders believe that the cases of Mixue Bingcheng and Laopu Gold demonstrate that consumption investment has shifted from a single track to diversified layouts. The deep cultivation of channels in lower-tier markets, cultural premium, and the innovative path of integrating Technology are becoming key for companies to break through. With the global supply chain restructuring and fragmentation of consumer markets, Chinese consumer brands with local advantages and global competitiveness may become an important mainline in capital markets.

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