The USDA will release the February supply and demand report at 0:00 on March 12 (Wednesday) Beijing time (click to view the Jinshi Futures Calendar). The March USDA report generally does not adjust the supply and demand for US Soybean, focusing mainly on adjustments to South American Soybean production.

The Soybean Meal 2505 contract has continued to rise since the low point of 2549 yuan/ton in mid-December, and as of March 6, Soybean Meal has entered a consolidation phase; the CBOT Soybean trend is generally consistent, but compared to the domestic Soybean Meal Block Orders, the recent decline in CBOT Soybean is larger.

At the same time, through the Soybean Meal monitoring tool (click the link to experience), we can find that since late December, the quote for North American imported Soybeans has turned to rise, reaching a short-term high in late January, with the recent quote for North American imported Soybeans maintaining a range-bound oscillation.

Focus of attention.

1. How will the March USDA report adjust, and when will Soybean and Soybean Meal reach a turning point?

According to the Grain and Oil Market Report, the January USDA report is generally considered to be the production report for US Soybean, and there will generally not be significant adjustments to US Soybean supply and demand from February to April.

Currently, the market's focus is mainly on the export situation of US Soybean and the planting situation of the new season Soybean. The main export destinations for US Soybean are China, Mexico, and the European Union. Recently, the USA has raised the trade baton, initiating a plan to increase tariffs on Mexico, which is unfavorable for the short-term exports of US Soybean and will also create a temporary bearish impact on CBOT Soybean prices. If a certain trade agreement is reached with the USA in the future, the outlook for US Soybean exports will still be relatively good.

Currently, the cost-performance ratio of soybean planting in the USA is not good. The USDA's February forum has lowered the soybean planting area for 2025/2026 in the USA to 84 million acres, below the market expectation of 84.4 million acres and the final area of 87.1 million acres last year.

From the South American market perspective, since February, rainfall in Brazil's main soybean producing areas has decreased, which is favorable for soybean harvesting; currently, the pace of soybean harvesting in Brazil is accelerating.

Argentina's soybean production faces challenges, as damp weather may cause significant yield reductions.

According to foreign media reports, due to the ongoing heavy rainfall in the eastern/southern Pampas region, Argentina's soybean production for the 2024/25 season has been slightly adjusted down to 49.5 million tons. As the growing season gradually ends, the negative impact of these rains outweighs the positive effects. In the southeastern part of the main Pampas region, there has been a series of very heavy rains in the past two weeks, totaling nearly 150 millimeters, which is 90 millimeters above normal levels. Some heavy rainfall in the northwest and eastern areas of Buenos Aires has caused local flooding and waterlogging issues. After a prolonged drought during the critical growth period in January/February, the flooding/excessive moisture in the late growth season is causing more damage than benefits, with harvesting approaching. Rainfall in the late growth season may not allow the plants to dry, failing to prevent mold caused by moisture accumulation while also causing quality issues. If the damp weather continues in key soybean producing areas, the overall harvesting progress may also be affected.

Using the soybean meal tracking tool (click the link to experience), we found that the weather monitoring function in the Argentine region indicates that fluctuating temperatures and reduced rainfall are expected in the next two weeks. The northern part of Argentina remains slightly warmer. During the forecast period from the 11th to the 15th, a general warming trend will reoccur across Argentina. Recent days' rainfall forecasts have significantly eased. This trend greatly reduces the risk of flooding in soybean fields, and the current rainfall will benefit the later development of crops. The long-term monitoring focus after the 15th will still be on continuous warmth.

Several institutions have downgraded their forecasts for Brazil's soybean production; will the USDA monthly report follow suit?

StoneX: Downgraded Brazil's soybean production forecast for 2024/25 to 0.1683 billion tons.

A report released by research institution StoneX shows that it has downgraded its forecast for Brazil's soybean production in 2024/25 to 0.1683 billion tons, down 1.5% from last month's forecast. The analyst at the agency stated in the report: "Record-high soybean harvests, although below initial potential, often ensure domestic balance, and this situation may change depending on global supply, with the focus on global supply shifting to the USA's 2025/26 crop, which will be planted in April."

Patria Agronegocios: The soybean harvesting rate in Brazil for the 2024/25 season has reached 27.31%.

Consulting agency Patria Agronegocios announced that the soybean harvesting rate in Brazil for the 2024/25 season has reached 27.31%, showing a jump of over 10 percentage points from the previous week, bringing the harvesting progress close to the average level in recent years after initial delays. During the same period in 2024, the harvesting rate was 30.72%, and in 2023, it was 24.78%. According to Patria Agronegocios, the average harvesting rate for the same period over the past five years was 28.53%. The agency’s director Matheus Pereira stated in a declaration: "Despite continuous rainfall in central and northern Brazil, good progress has been made in harvesting this week, especially in Mato Grosso state. Therefore, the current overall harvesting rate is approaching the average levels seen in recent years, reducing the overall impact of delays."

AgRural: It is expected that Brazil's soybean production for the 2024/25 season will reach 0.1682 billion tons.

Agricultural consulting agency AgRural stated that it expects Brazil's soybean production for the 2024/25 season to reach 0.1682 billion tons, which is a downward adjustment from the January estimate of 0.171 billion tons. Data from consulting firm AgRural shows that as of February 27, the soybean harvesting rate in Brazil for the 2024/25 season was at 50%, higher than 39% a week earlier and 48% during the same period last year. Market attention remains focused on the weather in late-harvest areas, especially the hot and dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul, where crops continue to lose production potential.

Abiove: It is expected that Brazil's soybean production this year will be 0.1717 billion tons.

The results of the survey by the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) indicate that supported by the increase in soybean meal and soybean oil exports, Brazil's soybean processing volume is expected to increase this year, with an estimated soybean production of 0.1717 billion tons, unchanged from the estimate in January.

CONAB: It is expected that Brazil's soybean production for the 2024/2025 season will reach 0.16601 billion tons.

According to forecast data released by CONAB, the National Supply Company under the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, it is expected that Brazil's soybean production for the 2024/2025 season will reach 0.16601 billion tons, an increase of 18.2951 million tons year-on-year, up 12.4%, while a decrease of 0.3146 million tons month-on-month, down 0.2%. It is anticipated that Brazil's corn production for the 2024/2025 season will reach 122.017 million tons, an increase of 6.32 million tons year-on-year.

Celeres: Downgraded the estimate for Brazil's soybean production in the 2024/25 season, with Brazil's soybean production expected to be 0.1716 billion tons this year.

Agricultural consulting agency Celeres stated that due to adverse weather in some states of the central and southern regions, the estimate for Brazil's soybean production in the 2024/25 season has been downgraded, but production is still expected to reach a record high. Celeres indicated that Brazil's soybean production this year is expected to be 0.1716 billion tons, lower than the previous estimate of 0.174 billion tons.

Institutions forecast the future trend of soybeans.

Ruida Futures: Several Institutions maintain expectations for a bumper harvest of Brazilian Soybeans, which will significantly increase soybean supply and may lead to selling pressure.

The slow progress of soybean harvesting in Brazil has resulted in a temporarily low soybean arrival, while South American soybeans are about to enter the harvest period, and multiple institutions maintain expectations for a bumper crop in Brazil, which may lead to a significant increase in soybean supply and potential selling pressure in the market. At the same time, oil mills will gradually resume operations after the festival, and the supply of soybean meal will gradually increase, hence soybean meal prices should not rise excessively.

CICC Futures: Brazil's soybean harvest is over halfway complete, further solidifying expectations for a bumper crop.

Brazil's soybean harvest is over halfway complete, further solidifying expectations for a bumper crop. According to institutional assessments, the soybean production in this year for major South American soybean producing countries like Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay is 0.2318 billion tons, an increase of 16.3 million tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 7.56%. The significant production increase in South American soybeans has a very obvious suppressive effect on global soybean prices. In 2024, 71% of the 0.1 billion tons of soybeans imported by China will come from Brazil, and Brazil still has potential for increased production in the future. Therefore, the strong increase in Brazil's soybean production has somewhat diluted the intensity of domestic market speculation on the tax increase topic.

Sanli Futures: A decrease in planting area for new season's US soybeans may lead to fluctuations in the global soybean supply pattern.

As time enters the second quarter, the arrival of Soybean increases, alleviating the tight supply sentiment. Coupled with the reduction in new season USA Soybean planting area, this may lead to fluctuations in the global Soybean supply pattern. Therefore, Soybean Meal will gradually shift from a strong near and weak far situation to a weak near and strong far situation, focusing on the 5-9 inverse arbitrage opportunities.

Yinhe Futures: Various Institutions in Brazil have made slight adjustments to Soybean production, but the overall supply remains relatively high.

Brazil's Soybean harvesting pace has accelerated compared to the same period last year. The weekly crop planting and harvesting report released by Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab) shows that as of March 2, 2025, the Soybean harvesting rate for the 2024/25 season in Brazil is 48.4%, up 12 percentage points from the previous week and higher than the 47.3% of the same period last year. Various Institutions in Brazil have made slight adjustments to production, but the overall supply remains relatively high. Although there has been some increase in demand this year, the overall supply and demand still appear relatively loose. The global Soybean market continues to focus on increasing production and inventory, with significant downward price pressure.

Reuters outlook.

Forward-looking Data: Global Soybean, Corn, and Wheat ending stocks estimates for the 2024/25 year.

Reuters' average forecast raises the global 2024/25 ending stocks of Chicago SRW Wheat and Soybeans, while lowering the global 2024/25 ending stocks of Corn; among them, the expected ending stocks of Soybeans are raised to 0.12456 billion tons, with an estimated Range between 0.1222-0.126 billion tons, compared to the USDA's previous estimate of 0.12434 billion tons in February.

Forward-looking Data: U.S. Soybean, Corn, and Wheat ending stocks estimates for the 2024/25 year.

Reuters expects to lower the USA's 2024/25 Soybean and Corn forecasts while raising the ending stocks of Chicago SRW Wheat, with the USA's 2024/25 Soybean ending stocks at 0.379 billion bushels, compared to the USDA's previous estimate of 0.38 billion bushels in February.

Forward-looking data: Brazil and Argentina's Soybean production forecast for the 2024/25 season.

Reuters predicts an increase in Brazil's soybean and corn production for the 2024/25 fiscal year, at 0.16918 billion tons and 12.607 million tons respectively, while the USDA previously estimated 0.169 billion tons and 12.6 million tons in February.

For Argentina's soybean and corn production in 2024/25, Reuters forecasts a decrease to 49 million tons and 48.88 million tons respectively, while the USDA had previously estimated 50 million tons and 49 million tons in February.

The impact of the USDA's March report on the market over the past few years.