媒体汇编的数据显示，截至目前，① The earnings outlook for US companies has worsened due to the threat of Trump’s tariffs, with more companies' performance expectations for the fourth quarter earnings season falling short of Analysts' expectations; ② The threat of tariffs has led to insufficient corporate confidence, Analysts expect.$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Component companies' profit growth this year is projected to be 10%, lower than the 13% predicted at the beginning of January.
According to a report from the Financial Associated Press on February 17 (Editor Liu Rui), as the fourth quarter earnings season for US stocks draws to a close, a concerning fact is gradually coming to light: under the threat of Trump’s tariffs, the earnings outlook for US companies is deteriorating.
US companies are anxious about the future.
During this year’s fourth quarter earnings season, among the companies that have released performance guidance for the next quarter and beyond, more have provided forecasts below Analysts' expectations.
Data compiled by the media shows that so far, a leading earnings indicator that compares corporate forecasts to Analysts' forecasts has dropped to its lowest level in a year. Earlier this month, this indicator even reached its lowest point since 2016.
This indicates concerns among US companies about the future. Many companies are already expressing doubt: once the USA triggers a full-scale trade war, the export demand and overseas profits of multinational companies will be impacted. Domestically, inflation remains persistently high, and the Federal Reserve does not seem eager to cut interest rates.
Jim Tierney, Chief Investment Officer responsible for the concentrated growth business in the USA at AllianceBernstein, stated:
This year's uncertainty is the greatest in many years, and executives are trying to respond to this uncertainty with more moderate guidance... Although the earnings results for the fourth quarter are strong, this has not fully lifted corporate expectations for 2025.
Strong performance has not brought about confidence.
Historically, the stock market's response to earnings guidance often exceeds the actual performance, and investors in the USA typically favor companies that provide better-than-expected guidance.
Business Intelligence (BI) data shows that companies in the USA that experienced profit and sales growth this earnings season outperformed the S&P 500 Index by 6.7% within a day of announcing earnings, the second-highest level since early 2020, also reflecting the good performance of USA companies in the fourth earnings report season.
However, despite this, USA companies do not seem to have sufficient confidence about the future. So far, only 80 companies in the S&P 500 Index have released their earnings outlook for the first quarter.
Of course, generally speaking, corporate executives tend to be conservative when making predictions about the coming months, often lowering market expectations to reduce the threshold for future stock price increases. However, due to tariff threats brought by Trump's administration, executives this year appear particularly cautious.
Patrick Armstrong, Chief Investment Officer at Plurimi Wealth, stated:
This is a classic dance between Wall Street Analysts and company performance guidance, where the sell-side provides very ambitious expectations, and the company leads them to present satisfactory numbers... The biggest question is when will the tariffs actually take effect?
The key lies in the tariffs.
Since Trump took office, the "tariff club" has been wielded continuously. Under this influence, even Analysts' confidence in the earnings prospects of US stocks has been quietly fading.
Data compiled by BI shows that Wall Street Analysts currently expect the earnings growth of S&P 500 Index component companies to be 10% this year, down from nearly 13% at the beginning of January.
However, the Analysts' forecast for 2026 has not changed - they expect an earnings growth of 14% next year.
Trump always brings volatility to the market, but if you look at the potential fundamentals of earnings growth, the situation remains very strong, said Nancy Tengler, CEO of investment firm Laffer Tengler Investments.
In addition to businesses, Trump's tariffs pose potential impacts on American Consumers. Given that inflation in the USA seems to be more stubborn than expected, and Trump's tariffs are likely to further push up prices, the Federal Reserve has already hinted at intention to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period to avoid a resurgence of inflation.
Editor/ping
