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• Trump signed an order to implement reciprocal tariffs, which may take effect on April 2.

President Trump of the USA signed a presidential memorandum proposing the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, which will be customized according to five different aspects for each trading partner, including: the tariffs they impose on American products, unfair taxation, the costs their policies impose on American businesses and consumers, exchange rate situation, and any other unfair trade practices identified by the Office of the United States Trade Representative. The new tariffs are expected to be implemented on April 2.

• The year-on-year increase in the USA's January PPI is the highest in nearly two years, but it is moderate compared to the PCE inflation-related part.

The USA's January PPI remains strong, rising 3.5% year-on-year, higher than the previous and expected value of 3.3%, reaching the highest level since February 2023, significantly reducing expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. However, due to the weak performance of the PPI components—financial and medical care services—forming the Federal Reserve's favored Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in January, the "New Federal Reserve News Agency" predicts that the core PCE increase will be much lower than CPI. The market reacted to this PPI report with a dovish sentiment.

• Musk stated he wants to "eradicate" the federal government institutions, with 0.075 million civil servants having accepted buyouts.

Musk, the head of DOGE, stated that the reforms being carried out by DOGE aim to eradicate corruption, dissolve federal agencies in the USA, reduce the number of federal government employees, and "completely eliminate" the "shadow government" composed of non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Media reports indicate that in the voluntary resignation program of the USA federal government, 75,000 employees from various federal agencies have already chosen to leave.

• After releasing GPT-5, DeepSeek has pushed out the delayed Grok 3.

After DeepSeek shocked the AI community, OpenAI has "teased" the launch of GPT-5, and Musk has also announced that Grok 3 may be released in the next week or two. Musk stated that Grok 3 is "frighteningly smart" and its performance in testing surpasses any published products we are aware of. We are in the final stages, and Grok 3 will be released in about one to two weeks.

• Dalio issues a severe warning: The USA must immediately cut debt, or the economy will face a "heart attack" crisis.

Hedge fund giant Dalio has warned about the US economy, stating that if Trump does not significantly cut debt, terrible consequences will ensue. Dalio suggested that Trump should commit to reducing the US budget deficit from 7.5% of GDP to 3%; without action, the USA may face a heart attack in the bond market. He also pointed out the risk of a "debt death spiral" in the private credit sector.

Review of the U.S. stock market.

• PPI boosted market sentiment, with all three major indexes closing higher; the Nasdaq rose by 1.5%, and Tesla soared nearly 6%.

The US PPI eased market concerns about the Federal Reserve's focus on PCE inflation, with tariffs lagging. All three major US stock indexes rose, with the Dow up 342.87 points or 0.77% at 44,711.43 points; the Nasdaq up 295.69 points or 1.50% at 19,945.64 points; and the S&P 500 Index up 63.10 points or 1.04% at 6,115.07 points.

The "Tech Seven Sisters" all saw gains, with Tesla closing up 5.77%, NVIDIA up 3.16%, Apple up 1.97%, Alphabet-A up 1.38%, Amazon up 0.63%, and Meta up 0.44%, marking its nineteenth consecutive day of gains, while Microsoft rose 0.37%.

AI concept stocks rallied broadly, with AppLovin up 24.02%, BullFrog AI up 22.22%, Serve Robotics up 17.12%, and Super Micro Computer up 6.55%. Oracle rose 0.95%, and Palantir closed up 0.44%.

Chinese concept stocks saw more gains than losses, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closing up 1.20%. Zhihu rose 10.84%, Bilibili rose 5.82%. Baidu gained 3.48%, PDD Holdings rose 2.28%, Alibaba increased by 1.02%, Li Auto fell by 4.18%, and Xiaomi Group ADR declined by 4.58%.

• Bridgewater reduced its holdings in six major Technology companies in the fourth quarter, built a position in Tesla, and significantly increased its Shareholding in the S&P 500 ETF.

The fourth-quarter Form 13F holdings document updated by Bridgewater Associates shows that its total holdings at the end of the fourth quarter amounted to 21.8 billion USD. In terms of Shareholding, it sold 1.26 million shares in the fourth quarter. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ 0.76 million shares. $Alphabet-A(GOOGL.US)$ At the same time, Shareholding was reduced. $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ 、 $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ 、 $Apple (AAPL.US)$ and $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ Among them, the reduction in Apple positions was the largest, reaching 40% or 0.41 million shares.

In terms of increasing holdings, Bridgewater made substantial purchases. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ Approximately 7.4 million shares, with an increase of 883%, while also increasing the shareholding. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US)$ 、 $PayPal(PYPL.US)$ 、 $eBay(EBAY.US)$ 、 $Robinhood(HOOD.US)$ and $Qualcomm(QCOM.US)$ And so on. It is worth mentioning that Bridgewater has also established a position with 0.15 million shares. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ 。

• SoftBank's Arm is developing its own chips, targeting Meta as one of the first customers.

Under SoftBank.$Arm Holdings(ARM.US)$It rose by 6.06% overnight, and is accelerating its major transformation from a traditional licensing model to independent chip design and manufacturing. The latest news indicates that Arm is developing its own chips and has secured Meta as one of its first customers.

According to the Financial Times from the United Kingdom, Arm plans to launch its first self-developed chip this year, expected to debut as early as summer. The new chip will serve as the central processing unit (CPU) platform for large datacenter servers, based on customizable designs that can meet specific needs of various customers, including Meta, while production may be outsourced to professional manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor.

• Apple is said to continue its collaboration with Baidu to develop AI features for iPhone users in China, in order to diversify risks.

$Baidu (BIDU.US)$ It rose by 3.48% overnight, according to media reports citing sources, despite establishing a partnership with Alibaba, $Apple (AAPL.US)$the company continues to engage with $Baidu (BIDU.US)$Collaborate to develop AI features for Chinese iPhone users.

It is reported that Baidu is developing an AI search function capable of processing images and text and upgrading the Chinese version of the Siri voice assistant, which are part of the "Apple Intelligence" suite.

• Apple announced a product launch event on February 19, where a new iPhone SE may be unveiled.

$Apple (AAPL.US)$The plan is to launch a product on February 19, described by CEO Tim Cook as the "latest addition to the family." Cook posted a short animation of a Metal Apple logo and the message on Social Media X, but did not provide further details. Cook's post caused Apple shares to rise nearly 2% at one point on Thursday.

Bloomberg reported last week that Apple plans to unveil the long-awaited new iPhone SE this month. The existing inventory of the iPhone SE at Apple Stores is quickly running out, which is usually a precursor to the launch of a new model.

The new version will be similar to the iPhone 14, featuring a larger screen and Face ID. This will mark the end of the iconic Home button interface that co-founder Steve Jobs introduced with the first-generation iPhone in 2007.

• The era of Cryptos is making great strides! Coinbase's Q4 revenue surged 130%, significantly exceeding expectations.

$Coinbase(COIN.US)$On Thursday, after the close of trading, strong fourth-quarter results were announced for the US stock market, with the highest quarterly revenue in three years, thanks to a sharp rebound following last year's election, which pushed cryptocurrency prices to new highs. After the report was released, the stock initially rose by 4.59%, but as of the time of writing, it had fallen by 1.35% in after-hours trading.

Data showed that Coinbase, which operates the largest cryptocurrency trading market in the USA, had a Q4 revenue of 2.27 billion USD, significantly exceeding the consensus forecast of 1.88 billion USD from LSEG analysts, compared to 0.9538 billion USD in the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth of over 130%. Q4 net income was 1.29 billion USD, with an EPS of 4.68 USD, far exceeding the LSEG analyst expectation of 1.81 USD, while the same period last year recorded 0.275 billion USD, or 1.04 USD per share.

• GameStop initially surged over 19% in after-hours trading, with reports indicating that it is considering investing in digital cryptocurrency.

$GameStop(GME.US)$ After-hours, it surged over 19%, currently up 7.82%, according to CNBC, the company is considering investing in Bitcoin and other kinds of cryptocurrencies.

Previously, GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen had released an image related to$Strategy(MSTR.US)$A photo with co-founder Michael Saylor.

• Airbnb rose nearly 15% in Post-Market Trading, with Q4 performance exceeding expectations.

$Airbnb(ABNB.US)$ On Thursday, US Stocks rose nearly 15% in Post-Market Trading. Earnings Reports indicate that Airbnb's Q4 revenue grew 12% year-on-year to 2.48 billion USD, better than analysts' expectations of 2.42 billion USD; EPS was 0.73 USD, exceeding the analyst forecast of 0.59 USD. Total booking value reached 17.6 billion USD.

The company stated that it expects to continue developing the progress made last year as travel demand remains stable. It forecasts Q1 2025 revenue to be between 2.23 billion to -2.27 billion USD, while analysts expect 2.29 billion USD.

• Roku rose nearly 12% in Post-Market Trading, with Q4 revenue increasing 25% and a significant narrowing of net loss.

$Roku Inc(ROKU.US)$After-Market Trading rose nearly 12%. The Earnings Report shows that Roku's Q4 revenue increased by 25% year-on-year to 1.2 billion USD, better than the Analyst expectation of 1.15 billion USD; the net loss was 35.5 million USD, significantly narrowing from a net loss of 78.3 million USD in the same period last year, and lower than the Analyst expectation of a net loss of 59.7 million USD. Q4 users and revenue per user both increased. The company expects Q1 2025 revenue to be 1.01 billion USD, with a net loss of 40 million USD; the annual revenue is expected to be 4.61 billion USD.

Top 20 by trading volume

Hong Kong market outlook

• The northbound capital aggressively purchased Alibaba for over 1.7 billion HKD, bought Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation for over 0.9 billion HKD, and sold TENCENT for over 1.7 billion HKD.

On February 13 (Thursday), the southbound funds had a net sale of 1.024 billion HKD in Hong Kong stocks.

$Alibaba-W (09988.HK)$、$Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981.HK)$、$CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK)$Net purchases of 1.728 billion HKD, 0.904 billion HKD, and 0.531 billion HKD were received respectively.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG(02800.HK)$、$TENCENT (00700.HK)$、$XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)$A net sell-off of 3.104 billion Hong Kong dollars, 1.766 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 1.027 billion Hong Kong dollars occurred respectively.

• UBS Group's benchmark list: Cambrian Technology against NVIDIA, XIAOMI-W against Tesla, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation against Taiwan Semiconductor.

The UBS Group report pointed out that since the beginning of the year, AI-related stocks listed in China have risen on average by 15%, outperforming the MSCI Chinese Index by 9%. UBS Group provided a benchmark list: Cambrian Technology against. $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ ， $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK)$ Correct. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ ， $Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981.HK)$ Correct. $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ . UBS Group states that the valuation of Cambricon is three times higher than NVIDIA, and the valuations of XIAOMI-W and Li Auto are 80% and 90% lower than Tesla, respectively. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation is valued 15% lower than Taiwan Semiconductor.

Keywords: USA January retail sales month-on-month, industrial output month-on-month, Eurozone Q4 GDP year-on-year revision, Hermès, Portland General Electric performance.

On Friday, in terms of economic data, the USA will announce January retail sales month-on-month and industrial output month-on-month; the Eurozone will announce the Q4 GDP year-on-year revision.

Regarding the IPOs, $LZ Technology Holdings(LZMH.US)$、 $Aardvark Therapeutics(AARD.US)$、 $Karman Holdings (TCFIII SPACECO HOLDINGS LLC)(KRMN.US)$will be listed on the US stock market.

In terms of Earnings Reports, $Hermès (ADR)(HESAY.US)$、$Enbridge(ENB.US)$、 $Portland General Electric (POR.US)$Will release earnings in Pre-Market Trading.

Futubull Morning Reading:

When people forget the basic knowledge that 'two plus two equals four,' it is time to exit the market.
——Warren Buffett

Editor/danial