According to the ZhTong Financial APP, Xinda Securities has released a Research Report stating that in January, inflation in the USA exceeded market expectations. This re-inflation may cause high policy interest rates to be maintained for a longer duration. Due to the seasonal adjustments that often affect inflation at the beginning of the year, determining whether this unexpected inflation marks a turning point for re-inflation is challenging. However, there are rebound factors of inflation that have not yet manifested, indicating that these potential rebound factors may still obstruct the smooth decline of core inflation, reinforcing the Fed's longer interest rate path. Firstly, this may be the most sensitive time for inflation escalation, and any rebound in inflation could be amplified or over-interpreted by the market. Secondly, current core commodity inflation is about to escape the deflation Range, and new tariffs may exacerbate the situation for core commodities.

First, under the influence of Energy and core Commodities, the CPI returns to the "3 era". The market expects the overall CPI in the USA to remain stable while the core CPI declines, but the actual inflation data for January shows a rebound in both core CPI and overall CPI, significantly exceeding market expectations. Breaking it down, core service inflation is still in the process of falling, and the rebound in core inflation is mainly driven by the prices of core Commodities. Overall, the recent rise in overall inflation exceeding expectations is primarily influenced by Energy and Commodity prices, with changes in core Commodities largely driven by fluctuations in used car prices.

Second, the impact of the lag effect of housing rents in the USA on re-inflation has not yet manifested. Based on the typical lead of housing prices over rental prices by about 18 months, the beginning of this year may be the stage where the rebound in USA housing prices starts to show a lagged effect on rent inflation. However, from the performance in January, the rent CPI continues to decline, and there is no rebound in overall core service items. The lag effect of rents has not been reflected in January's inflation, indicating that the potential impact of the lag effect of rents on inflation has not yet fully manifested. Moving forward, the lag effect of rents is likely to become an obstacle to significant progress in core inflation.

Risk factors: geopolitical risks, international oil prices rising beyond expectations, and a weaker than expected job market.