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US Stock Outlook | Trump might unleash the "reciprocal tariff" strategy today! PPI data exceeded expectations, and all three major futures indexes fell; high-performing stocks soared in pre-market trading, with Applovin rising over 29%.

Futu News · Feb 13 13:11

热点要闻

周四，三大期指齐跌，美国1月PPI数据高于预期，初请数据低于预期。

美国至2月8日当周初请失业金人数为21.30万人，预期为21.50万人，前值由21.9万人修正为22万人。

美国1月PPI同比增长3.50%，预期增长3.20%，前值增长3.30%。

明星科技股盘前多数下跌， $特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$涨超2%， $台积电 (TSM.US)$跌超1%

热门中概股盘前普跌， $理想汽车 (LI.US)$跌超4%， $小鹏汽车 (XPEV.US)$跌超3%

Applovin盘前飙涨超29%，去年Q4营收大增，25Q1指引超预期

移动应用公司$Applovin (APP.US)$盘前大涨超29%。消息上，公司24年Q4实现总收入为13.73亿美元，同比大幅增长44%，超过市场预期的12.6亿美元；净利润为5.99亿美元，同比增长248%。展望2025年第一季度，公司预计总收入在13.55亿美元-13.85亿美元区间，市场预期为13.2亿美元。

Robinhood美股盘前涨超13%，Q4营收同比增长115%，加密货币业务收入达3.58亿美元

$Robinhood (HOOD.US)$盘前涨超13%，2024年Q4营收10.14亿美元，同比增长115%；净利润为9.16亿美元，2023年同期为3000万美元；其中加密货币业务收入为3.58亿美元。

思科盘前涨超6%，势创新高，第二财季业绩超预期+150亿回购计划

$思科 (CSCO.US)$盘前涨超6%，开盘后股价势将创下新高。消息面上，思科公布2025财年第二财季业绩，销售额同比增长9%至140亿美元，好于分析师预期的139亿美元；调整后每股收益为0.94美元，好于分析师预期的0.91美元。展望2025财年，思科预计销售额将介于560亿至565亿美元之间，较此前预期提高10亿美元，略高于分析师预期的559.7亿美元。

医疗科技AI公司Firefly Neuroscience获加入英伟达Connect计划，股价盘前飙升逾20%

AI驱动的脑部分析公司 $Firefly Neuroscience (AIFF.US)$ 盘前涨逾20%，公司宣布，获准加入英伟达Connect计划。公司称，希望利用其经美国FDA批准的脑网络分析技术平台，建立世界上第一个人类大脑的专有基础模型。

$卡骆驰 (CROX.US)$美股盘前飙升逾18%，公司业绩指引超预期，拟扩大股票回购授权规模至13亿美元

即将发布财报，Coinbase盘前涨超2%

$Coinbase (COIN.US)$盘前涨超2%，公司即将发布财报，根据FactSet编制的分析师预期，Coinbase预计将在第四季度报告每股收益（EPS）为2.11美元，营收为18.4亿美元。这与2023年第四季度每股收益1.04美元、营收9.54亿美元相比有显著增长。

索尼盘前涨超4%，第三财季业绩超预期，AR/VR游戏业务表现强劲

$索尼 (SONY.US)$盘前涨超4%。消息面上，索尼公布截至去年12月底的第三财季业绩，营收同比增长18%至4.41万亿日元，净利润同比增长2.7%至3737.4亿日元，超预期。期内ARVR游戏业务利润增长37%，主要受惠于销售增加以及来自硬件设备的损失减少。PlayStation 5游戏机销量为950万部，较去年同期的820万部有所增长。

AI发展突破促潜在价值重估，多重利好刺激百度盘前涨超2%

$百度 (BIDU.US)$美股盘前涨超2%。消息面上，文心一言宣布自4月1日起全面免费开放，PC端和APP端用户均可体验其最新模型。同时，文心一言上线了深度搜索功能，并将于4月1日起免费开放使用。另外，有媒体称百度正讨论在阿联酋运营机器人出租车，百度ROBOTAXI最早可能于上半年开始在迪拜进行测试。

联合利华盘前跌超6%，去年增收不增利

消费品巨头$联合利华(英国) (UL.US)$盘前跌超6%。消息上，公司公布，2024财年税前利润从去年的93.4亿欧元下降至88.7亿欧元；净利润从去年的71.4亿欧元下降10.8%至63.7亿欧元；营业额从23年的596亿欧元增长1.9%至607.6亿欧元。基本销售额增长率为4.2%。在第四季度，营业额微降0.1%至142亿欧元。另外，联合利华宣布了一项新的股票回购计划，金额高达15亿欧元。

$Datadog (DDOG.US)$盘前跌超9%，公司四季度业绩好于预期，但一季度业绩逊于预期

The Trade Desk盘前跌超28%，一季度调整后Ebitda指引逊色于分析师预期

$The Trade Desk (TTD.US)$盘前跌超28%，公司四季度调整后EPS为0.59美元，分析师预期0.54美元；四季度营收7.41亿美元，分析师预期7.598亿美元。预计一季度营收超过5.75亿美元，分析师预期5.815亿美元；预计一季度调整后EBITDA大约1.45亿美元，分析师预期1.916亿美元。

Reddit盘前跌超12%，四季度业绩超预期，但用户人数低于预期

社交媒体公司$Reddit (RDDT.US)$盘前跌超12%，去年第四季盈利及收入均胜预期，惟每日活跃独立用户增长逊预期。季内录净利润为7,100万美元，每股盈利36美仙，高于市场预期的25美仙。营收按年上升71%至4.28亿美元，亦高于预测的4.05亿美元。期内每日活跃独立用户增至1.017亿人，按年升39%，但低于市场预期的1.03亿人。

全球宏观

市场情绪乐观，若PPI高于预期或被淡化影响

分析师Giuseppe Dellamotta表示，今晚将公布的美国1月PPI数据，市场预期为3.2%，前值为3.3%。核心PPI年率预期为3.3%，前值为3.5%;月率预期为0.3%，前值为0.0%。由于“1月效应”，特别是由于在关税方面的头条新闻，以及乐观的特朗普-普京通话，市场有点原谅了昨天高于预期的CPI数据。今晚我们可能会看到，市场也会淡化潜在的高于预期的PPI数据。

特朗普宣称今日将放出“对等关税”大招，但未透露细节

美国总统特朗普表示，他将在周四宣布对等关税措施，承诺兑现他的威胁，对那些对美国商品征收更高关税的国家的进口商品征收关税。此举将代表他与经济伙伴的贸易战的重大升级。特朗普是在他的Truth Social平台上宣布的这一举动。他没有详细说明关税将是什么，关税结构如何，以及关税何时生效。

美国CPI超预期，市场对美联储今年降息预期：只有1次

美国通胀数据火爆，进一步浇灭了市场对美联储今年降息的预期。美国劳工统计局数据显示，1月美国CPI环比上涨0.5%。核心CPI（不包括食品和能源）环比上涨0.4%，同样高于预期。数据公布后，市场下调美联储今年降息预期。根据利率掉期合约，交易员们现在仅预期今年有一次25个基点的降息，而此前预期至少有两次，并且将降息的时间点从之前的9月进一步推迟到12月。

美政府赤字又亮红灯！财年前四个月赤字8400亿美元创纪录、超过疫情高峰期

继200多年来罕见的超高年度预算赤字后，美国联邦政府又亮起了财政赤字的红灯。美东时间2月12日周三，美国财政部公布数据显示，从2024年10月到2025年1月，即2025财年的前四个月，美国联邦政府的预算赤字达到8400亿美元，创历来财年中前四个月赤字的最高纪录，超过了新冠疫情爆发后财政支出最高峰时期的赤字水平，较2024财年同期赤字扩大3080亿美元、扩大幅度58%。

全球石油要吃紧？IEA过剩预估腰斩，美俄伊博弈加剧

在亚洲需求增长强劲以及欧佩克+国家遭受制裁的背景下，国际能源署（IEA）再度下调了对今年全球石油过剩量的预期。当地时间周四（2月13日），IEA在官网发布了石油市场月度报告。该机构最新预计， 2025年的石油过剩量将达到45万桶/日，与两个月前相比，IEA预测的数字减少了约50%。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

21:30：美国至2月8日当周初请失业金人数。

21:30：美国1月PPI。

23:30：美国至2月7日当周EIA天然气库存。

次日凌晨

01:00：欧洲央行管委内格尔发表讲话。

01:00：2027年FOMC票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克就经济前景发表讲话。

06:05：美联储理事沃勒就稳定币发表讲话。

编辑/ping

Hot News

On Thursday, the three major futures indices all declined as USA's January PPI data exceeded expectations while initial claims data fell short of expectations.

For the week ending February 8th, the number of initial jobless claims in the USA was 0.213 million, expected to be 0.215 million, and the previous value was revised from 0.219 million to 0.22 million.

The USA's January PPI increased by 3.50% year-on-year, compared to an expected increase of 3.20% and a previous increase of 3.30%.

Most Growth Tech stocks fell in Pre-Market Trading. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$Increased by over 2%. $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$Fell more than 1%.

China Concept Stocks are broadly down in Pre-Market Trading. $Li Auto (LI.US)$Dropped over 4%, $XPeng (XPEV.US)$Down over 3%

Applovin surged over 29% in Pre-Market Trading, with a significant revenue increase in Q4 last year, and 25Q1 guidance exceeded expectations.

Mobile application company.$Applovin (APP.US)$Pre-Market Trading surged over 29%. According to news, the company achieved total revenue of 1.373 billion USD in Q4 2024, a significant increase of 44% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 1.26 billion USD; net income was 0.599 billion USD, growing 248% year-on-year. Looking ahead to Q1 2025, the company expects total revenue in the range of 1.355 billion USD to -1.385 billion USD, with market expectations at 1.32 billion USD.

Robinhood's stock surged over 13% in Pre-Market Trading, with Q4 revenue increasing 115% year-on-year, and revenue from the Crypto business reaching 0.358 billion USD.

$Robinhood (HOOD.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, the stock rose over 13%, with Q4 2024 revenue at 1.014 billion USD, a 115% increase year-on-year; net income was 0.916 billion USD, while it was 30 million USD in the same period of 2023; revenue from the Crypto business was 0.358 billion USD.

Cisco's stock rose over 6% in Pre-Market Trading, poised to hit a new high, with Q2 performances exceeding expectations and a 15 billion USD buyback plan.

$Cisco (CSCO.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, the stock rose over 6%, and after the market opens, the stock price is expected to reach a new high. According to the news, Cisco announced its Q2 performance for FY 2025, with sales up 9% year-on-year to 14 billion USD, better than Analyst expectations of 13.9 billion USD; adjusted EPS was 0.94 USD, also better than Analyst expectations of 0.91 USD. Looking ahead to FY 2025, Cisco expects sales to be between 56 billion and 56.5 billion USD, an increase of 1 billion USD from previous expectations, slightly above Analyst expectations of 55.97 billion USD.

Medical Technology AI company Firefly Neuroscience joined NVIDIA's Connect program, and its stock price skyrocketed over 20% in Pre-Market Trading.

AI-driven brain analysis company $Firefly Neuroscience (AIFF.US)$ In Pre-Market Trading, it surged over 20% after the company announced its approval to join the NVIDIA Connect program. The company stated that it hopes to utilize its brain network analysis technology platform approved by the FDA in the USA to establish the world's first proprietary foundational model of the human brain.

$Crocs (CROX.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, it soared over 18% as the company’s performance guidance exceeded expectations, and it plans to expand its Share Buyback authorization amount to 1.3 billion dollars.

Coinbase, set to release its Earnings Reports soon, rose over 2% in Pre-Market Trading.

$Coinbase (COIN.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, it rose over 2% as the company is about to release its Earnings Reports. According to Analyst expectations compiled by FactSet, Coinbase is projected to report an EPS of 2.11 dollars and revenue of 1.84 billion dollars for the fourth quarter. This represents significant growth compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, where the EPS was 1.04 dollars and revenue was 0.954 billion dollars.

Sony's stock rose over 4% in Pre-Market Trading as the performance in the third fiscal quarter exceeded expectations, with strong results in Gaming.

$Sony (SONY.US)$The stock rose over 4% in Pre-Market Trading. In terms of news, Sony reported its third fiscal quarter performance ending December last year, with revenue increasing 18% year-on-year to 4.41 trillion yen, and net income rising 2.7% year-on-year to 373.74 billion yen, exceeding expectations. During the period, profit from the Gaming business grew 37%, primarily benefiting from increased sales and reduced losses from Hardware. PlayStation 5 sales reached 9.5 million units, an increase compared to 8.2 million units in the same period last year.

Breakthroughs in AI development prompt potential value reassessment, with multiple bullish factors driving Baidu's stock up over 2% in Pre-Market Trading.

$Baidu (BIDU.US)$The stock rose over 2% in Pre-Market Trading. In terms of news, Wenxin Yiyan announced that it will be completely free starting April 1, allowing users on both PC and APP to experience its latest model. Additionally, Wenxin Yiyan has launched deep search functionality which will also be available for free starting April 1. Moreover, media reports suggest Baidu is discussing the operation of robot taxis in the UAE, with Baidu's ROBOTAXI potentially starting testing in Dubai as early as the first half of the year.

Unilever's stock fell over 6% in Pre-Market Trading as it increased revenue last year but did not increase profit.

Consumer goods giant.$Unilever (UL.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, it dropped over 6%. According to the news, the company announced that the pre-tax profit for the fiscal year 2024 decreased from last year's 9.34 billion euros to 8.87 billion euros; the Net income fell by 10.8% from last year's 7.14 billion euros to 6.37 billion euros; the turnover increased by 1.9% from 59.6 billion euros in 2023 to 60.76 billion euros. The basic sales growth rate is 4.2%. In the fourth quarter, the turnover slightly decreased by 0.1% to 14.2 billion euros. Additionally, Unilever announced a new Share Buyback plan of up to 1.5 billion euros.

$Datadog (DDOG.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, it dropped over 9%. The company's performance in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations, but the performance in the first quarter lagged behind.

The Trade Desk dropped over 28% in Pre-Market Trading, as the adjusted EBITDA guidance for the first quarter fell short of Analyst expectations.

$The Trade Desk (TTD.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, it dropped over 28%. The company's adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter is $0.59, exceeding Analyst expectations of $0.54; fourth quarter revenue is $0.741 billion, while Analyst expectations were $0.7598 billion. The expected first quarter revenue exceeds $0.575 billion, while Analyst expectations were $0.5815 billion; the expected adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter is around $0.145 billion, with Analyst expectations at $0.1916 billion.

Reddit dropped over 12% in Pre-Market Trading, with fourth quarter performance exceeding expectations, but the number of users fell short.

Social Media Company$Reddit (RDDT.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, the stock fell more than 12%. Last year's fourth-quarter profits and revenues exceeded expectations, but the growth in daily active unique users was below expectations. The net income for the quarter was $71 million, with an EPS of 36 cents, higher than the market expectation of 25 cents. Revenue increased by 71% year-on-year to $0.428 billion, also exceeding the forecast of $0.405 billion. Daily active unique users reached 0.1017 billion, a 39% year-on-year increase, but lower than the market expectation of 0.103 billion.

Global Macro

Market sentiment is optimistic; if PPI is higher than expected, it may be downplayed.

Analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta stated that tonight's US January PPI data is expected to be 3.2%, down from the previous value of 3.3%. The core PPI year-on-year is expected to be 3.3%, down from 3.5%; month-on-month it is expected to be 0.3%, up from 0.0%. Due to the 'January Effect,' particularly from tariff-related headlines and the optimistic Trump-Putin call, the market somewhat forgave yesterday's higher-than-expected CPI data. Tonight we might see the market also downplay potential higher-than-expected PPI data.

Trump claims he will unveil a 'reciprocal tariff' tactic today but did not disclose details.

US President Trump stated that he will announce reciprocal tariff measures on Thursday, promising to fulfill his threats to impose tariffs on imported goods from countries that impose higher tariffs on US products. This move will represent a significant escalation in his trade war with economic partners. Trump announced this action on his Truth Social platform. He did not specify what the tariffs would be, how the tariff structure would work, or when the tariffs would take effect.

US CPI exceeds expectations, and the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year: only once.

US inflation data is booming, further extinguishing market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year. According to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI in January increased by 0.5% month-on-month. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, also higher than expected. After the data was released, the market lowered its expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year. According to interest rate swap contracts, traders now only expect one 25 basis point rate cut this year, down from earlier expectations of at least two, and have pushed back the timing of the rate cut from September to December.

US government deficit raises red flags again! The deficit of 840 billion dollars in the first four months of the fiscal year hits record levels, surpassing the peak of the pandemic.

After a rare ultra-high annual budget deficit for 200 years, the US federal government has once again raised the red flag for fiscal deficits. On February 12, Eastern Time, the US Department of the Treasury released data indicating that from October 2024 to January 2025, the first four months of the 2025 fiscal year, the budget deficit of the US federal government reached 840 billion dollars, setting a record for the highest deficit in the first four months of any fiscal year, surpassing the deficit levels during the peak of fiscal spending after the outbreak of COVID-19, expanding by 308 billion dollars compared to the same period in fiscal year 2024, an increase of 58%.

Is global oil about to tighten? IEA cuts surplus estimates in half as the US, Russia, and Iran's geopolitical game intensifies.

In the context of strong demand growth in Asia and OPEC+ countries facing sanctions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has again lowered its expectations for the global oil surplus this year. On Thursday (February 13), the IEA released its monthly oil market report on its official website. The agency now expects that the oil surplus in 2025 will reach 0.45 million barrels per day, which is a reduction of about 50% compared to the figures predicted two months ago.

Pre-Market Trading Top 20 by transaction volume.

Reminder of Macroeconomic Events in the USA

(The following are all in Beijing Time)

21:30: Initial jobless claims in the USA for the week ending February 8.

21:30: USA January PPI.

23:30: EIA natural gas inventory in the USA for the week ending February 7.

Next early morning

01:00: ECB Governing Council member Nagel speaks.

01:00: 2027 FOMC voting member, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on the economic outlook.

06:05: Federal Reserve Governor Waller speaks on stablecoins.

Editor/ping

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