① Trump's tariff policy has a significant impact, becoming a hot topic in the global corporate Q4 Earnings Reports season, mentioned by 50% of S&P 500 components; ② Goldman Sachs predicts that a 5-percentage-point increase in tariffs may lead to a 1%-2% decline in earnings per share for the S&P 500 Index; ③ European companies are also affected, with several firms such as Siemens Energy and Ahold Delhaize Group expecting that tariffs will result in price increases.
According to the financial news agency on February 13 (Editor: Liu Rui), as Trump's tariff policy gradually rolls out, the executives of major global companies are warning about the impact of Trump's tariffs on company operations and global Consumer.
During the current Q4 Earnings Reports season, from Autos to Consumer to Energy and other Industries, major companies are inevitably being asked about their views and responses to tariffs. This has made "tariffs" the most frequently discussed topic of this Earnings Reports season.
"Tariffs" have become a hot topic in the Q4 Earnings Reports season.
As of February 7, 61% of the companies in the S&P 500 Index have reported their quarterly results. Overall, the performance of U.S. stock companies is encouraging, with earnings per share showing an average year-on-year growth of 13.1%, exceeding analysts' initial expectation of 8%.
However, tariffs still hang like the Sword of Damocles over many companies, causing Executives to be worried about the future.
According to Statistics, of the S&P 500 companies that have released earnings reports, 50% mentioned tariffs when discussing their outlook.
Another piece of data from LSEG also shows that since the beginning of this year, over 380 companies in the S&P 1500 Index (covering large, small, and mid-cap companies in the USA) have answered questions about tariffs during earnings call.
From a macro perspective, tariffs remain a significant negative impact on corporate profits.
According to economists at Goldman Sachs, an effective tariff rate increase of 5 percentage points in the USA could lead to a decline of approximately 1% to 2% in S&P 500 Index earnings per share by 2025 and reduce the overall economic growth rate in the USA by one percentage point.
Tariffs will lead to inflation and retaliation.
In fact, it's not just USA companies; European companies are also closely monitoring tariff issues.
On Wednesday Eastern Time, globally renowned retail group Ahold Delhaize and Siemens Energy warned during their earnings reports that US import tariffs will lead to price increases as they pass on costs. Meanwhile, Austrian specialty steel manufacturer voestalpine urged the EU to retaliate against the tariffs threatened by Trump.
Siemens Energy expects to be hit hard by tariffs, as its network in Mexico is most vulnerable to additional costs of electrical equipment supply.
The company's CEO Christian Bruch stated that he cannot quantify the impact of tariff increases, but he will raise prices, thereby passing the tariff costs onto consumers, echoing remarks made by many other company executives in recent weeks.
Frans Muller, CEO of the Netherlands-based retail giant Ahold Delhaize, said the group expects US tariffs on Mexico and Canada to cause increases in the prices of food, vegetables, and paper products.
Mueller added that if the competitiveness of Mexican products declines, the company is considering sourcing more products from states such as the West Coast and Florida. The company operates numerous chains in the USA, including Food Lion, Stop & Shop, and Hannaford.
"If tariffs are imposed on Mexican fruits and vegetables or Canadian paper products, then these commodities will be affected by inflation."
Barclays European equity strategists stated on Wednesday that although Trump's tariff threats currently appear more like a negotiation tool, it cannot be denied that there are still significant risks for industries affected by tariffs and exchange rates, such as Autos and Consumer goods.
Rough calculations from the bank indicate that in the "worst" case scenario, a 10% tariff could hit the profits of European companies by 5-10%.
European companies call for retaliation.
After Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Steel and Aluminum, European steel manufacturers are concerned that this could lead to more cheap Steel flooding into the EU, just like during Trump's first presidential term in 2018.
Therefore, Austrian steel giant Voestalpine immediately called on the EU to take countermeasures and began negotiating with the USA regarding tariff issues.
French steel manufacturer Aperam also urged that if the tariffs imposed by the USA on all Steel and Aluminum imports prompt companies to export more products to the EU, the EU should intervene to curb the imports.
Potential tariffs may also impact the capital investment plans in the manufacturing Industry. General Motors Chair and CEO Mary Barra stated during the Earnings Reports conference call:
"Regarding possible tariffs, we are working throughout the entire Logistics network and assembly plants to prepare for mitigating short-term impacts... We will not invest a substantial amount of money without clear objectives."
Editor/danial