哈马克在周二的一场公开讲话中表示：“我们取得了不错的进展，但目前还看不到通胀率即将达到2%的迹象……只要劳动力市场保持健康，在进一步调整政策之前，我希望有广泛的证据表明通胀正在可持续地回到2%。”①Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, is concerned that the Trump administration's actions may hinder the cooling of inflation in the USA. She suggests that the Federal Reserve should keep interest rates unchanged and wait for inflation to decrease further; ②Hammack emphasizes that the new policies of the Trump administration will bring uncertainty, and time is needed to analyze their impact on the economy.
On February 12, the Financial Associated Press reported (editor Liu Rui) that Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated on Tuesday, Eastern Time, that she is worried that the actions of the Trump administration may obstruct the trend of cooling inflation in the USA.
She believes that current Federal Reserve officials should wait for inflation in the USA to further decrease and analyze the impact of the new government's policies on the economy. During this time, the most appropriate action is to maintain interest rates unchanged.
Does Trump bring inflation risks?
In a public speech on Tuesday, Hammack stated: "We have made good progress, but currently there are no signs that the inflation rate is about to reach 2%... As long as the labor market remains healthy, before making further policy adjustments, I hope to have broad evidence indicating that inflation is sustainably returning to 2%."
When explaining why patience should be maintained in monetary policy, she provided two key reasons. She pointed out that, on one hand, the risk of rising inflation still exists; on the other hand, last year's impact of the Federal Reserve on economic activity may have a lag.
She also emphasized the uncertainty of the government's new policies, particularly regarding Trump's policies on regulation, taxation, immigration, and tariffs. She stated that more time is needed to analyze these factors and determine the appropriate monetary policy response.
Hammack stated: "Taking tariffs as an example, when assessing their ultimate impact, policies should remain patient... Given the recent history of high inflation, the risks to the inflation outlook seem to lean upward, which may delay the return of inflation to the target of 2%."
Is the Federal Reserve approaching a neutral interest rate?
Harmark also believes that the current Federal Reserve interest rates "may already be at or near neutral levels." The neutral interest rate is the level that neither stimulates nor suppresses economic activity.
She predicts that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in 2025, but "even though I think we won't raise rates this year, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding a series of policies. Therefore, we need to pay attention to all these factors and how these factors influence these decisions."
It is worth mentioning that Harmark may be one of the more hawkish officials at the Federal Reserve. At the interest rate decision meeting last December, Harmark opposed the decision to cut rates for the third consecutive time, preferring to keep rates unchanged.
Harmark pointed out in her recent speech that she will closely monitor the inflation data from the beginning of this year. Tonight, the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is about to be released.
Editor/ping
