此外，2017年全球贸易环境相对稳定，然而2025年贸易不确定性依然存在。尤其是中美之间的贸易摩擦可能会加剧，这将对全球市场产生深远影响。According to JPMorgan's recently released 2025 Global Market strategy report, the current market environment is significantly different from the "Trump 1.0 era" of 2017, necessitating caution towards growth stocks and the Technology Sector. Although the market anticipates a repeat of regional rotation and a broad rally in risk assets, four key factors—regional growth differentiation, the dollar's trajectory, trade policies, and the Bonds yield environment—do not support a simple replication of the optimistic scenario of 2017.
Trump 2.0 VS 1.0
JPMorgan points out that the economic growth backdrop in 2025 is significantly different from that in 2017. In 2017, the USA experienced strong economic growth, with an annual increase of 20%, while Emerging Markets performed even better with a growth of 35%. However, the situation in 2025 is different, with the differences in economic growth across regions significantly narrowing. Economic growth in the USA is projected to be 2.4%, while the Eurozone and the United Kingdom are both expected to be 0.7%.
In 2017, the US dollar weakened due to synchronized global economic recovery, positively affecting risk assets, Emerging Markets, and the CSI Commodity Equity Index. However, the trend of the US dollar in 2025 may differ. Research Reports indicate that the US dollar may remain strong, which will exert pressure on Emerging Markets and the CSI Commodity Equity Index.
Additionally, the global trade environment in 2017 was relatively stable, yet trade uncertainty persists in 2025. In particular, trade friction between the USA and China may intensify, which will have profound impacts on the global market.
The environment of Bonds yields in 2025 is drastically different from that in 2017. At that time, Bonds yields were low, providing room for the repricing of risk assets. In 2025, however, Bonds yields are nearing 4.5%, which will limit the upside potential for risk assets.
Despite recent mild CPI data, the University of Michigan's one-year inflation expectations have risen to 4.3%, and the small business price increase plan index is climbing, indicating that inflationary stickiness may exceed expectations. Under the combination of high interest rates and high deficits, the valuation of risk assets (especially the U.S. stock market with a 22 times forward PE) appears fragile.
Technology stocks: Is the feast over or is there a style switch?
In terms of industry allocation, JPMorgan advises investors to maintain a neutral stance on the Technology sector, believing that the high valuation risks in this sector are becoming increasingly evident, and suggests shifting from Semiconductors to Software. The firm also reiterated its view from last summer, downgrading growth stocks from "overweight" to "neutral" and recommends that investors gradually shift towards value stocks, particularly in traditional sectors like Energy and Materials.
The firm believes that the USA's exceptionalism in the Technology field is weakening. It no longer believes that it will continue to lead the market. The expectations for the "seven sisters" of technology stocks are very high, and the themes of first-mover advantages and large cash reserves are being challenged. Historically, it has never been the existing companies that benefited from technological disruption, but external companies. In the internal rotation among tech stocks, JPMorgan recommends reducing Shareholding in Semiconductors (high cyclical volatility) and increasing Shareholding in Software stocks (such as SAP with strong cash flows and clear AI monetization paths).
Summary
Investors need to abandon the fantasy of a "simple replication" from 2017 and shift to a defensive allocation (high dividends, low valuation), focusing on industries with low sensitivity to interest rates (Software, Medical), and be cautious about exposure to Emerging Markets during a strong dollar cycle. Although it is difficult for tech stocks to show overall BETA trends, structural opportunities in the AI application layer (such as enterprise software) are still worth exploring.
Editor/ping
