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无惧特朗普“关税大棒”?华尔街:美股今年将继续上涨,抛售是买入良机!

Not afraid of Trump's 'tariff stick'? Wall Street: U.S. stocks will continue to rise this year, and selling presents a Buy opportunity!

cls.cn ·  Feb 10 19:31

① Wall Street analysts believe that the uncertainty and volatility caused by trade concerns present a buying opportunity this year, with economic growth likely to bring more vigorous gains to the USA stock market. ② They are also skeptical about whether Trump will implement tariffs as harshly as he initially proposed.

According to Caixin News on February 10 (Editor Huang Junzhi), since USA President Trump took office, fears related to the 'tariff stick' have lingered in investors' minds, while Trump's unpredictable attitude has at times led the market on a rollercoaster ride.

However, some Wall Street analysts believe that the uncertainty and volatility caused by trade concerns present a buying opportunity this year, ultimately leading to economic growth 'taking the upper hand' and bringing more vigorous increases to the USA stock market.

Some investors and economists say that they believe the USA will be driven this year by bullish factors conducive to growth and other ongoing catalysts such as the AI boom. They also express skepticism about whether Trump will implement tariffs as harshly as he initially proposed.

Clark Bellin, Chief Investment Officer at Bellwether Wealth, believes the USA stock market is still expected to maintain strong upward momentum by the end of this year. He pointed out that due to the strong growth of the USA economy, the ROI of the USA stock market is expected to reach 9%-12% by 2025.

The latest GDPNow data from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank indicates that the job market and economic growth fundamentals are solid, with last month’s unemployment rate remaining near historical lows and the GDP expected to accelerate to 2.9% this quarter. Meanwhile, although the inflation rate has risen somewhat, it remains relatively mild at 2.9% year-on-year in December.

"Inflation has not skyrocketed. It doesn’t necessarily have to crash as people hope. I believe the Federal Reserve has analyzed the situation and consciously maintained optimism, realistically achieving a soft landing, which is very good," Bellin said.

He also added that his company reduced some exposures to industries that might be most affected by tariffs last week, in order to create 'backup funds' off the market.

If there is a long-term perspective, some of these declines are buying opportunities,” he added. “We will continue to monitor some of our proprietary Indicators and make strategic decisions as we deploy part of the capital.

José Torres, a senior economist at Interactive Brokers, believes that due to Trump's pro-growth policies, US stocks could rise another 10% by 2025. He also pointed out that this means that every sell-off triggered by Trump's political moves could become a buying opportunity for investors.

We believe the stock market will rise. Do not think that tariff risks will undermine the genuinely positive domestic momentum that may occur this year,” he added. He referred to Trump's tax cuts, deregulation, and plans to boost domestic manufacturing.

According to Goldman Sachs, Trump's proposed tax cut plan could raise the earnings of S&P 500 Index component companies by as much as 20% over the next two years. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley predicted last year that, given the long-term stagnation in the industrial sector, repatriation could add up to $10 trillion in value to the US economy.

I think this is a good buying opportunity,” Torres said when discussing last week's volatility.

Mark Malek, Chief Investment Officer at Siebert Financial, also believes that with the arrival of the AI boom, there will be more upside potential in the US stock market.

He mentioned that major technology companies have increased their commitment to AI this year. Google's parent company, Alphabet, stated that it plans to invest $75 billion by 2025. Meta has committed to invest $65 billion, while Microsoft has allocated $80 billion for the fiscal year 2025.

Malek stated that he believes the significant rise of tech stocks this year could again support the market, continuing the strong performance of tech stocks since 2023.

I believe that, from a long-term perspective, the market still has room to grow," he added. "If we set aside the commotion from last week, I think you will see these companies come through.

As for Trump's "tariff stick," Malek believes that tariffs may be a negotiating tool for Trump in determining his trade policy.

"When I see these numbers, I keep thinking that the president cannot accomplish these things. The USA economy will face significant challenges, why would the president do things that have such a negative impact on the market and the USA economy?" he said.

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Editor/ping

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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