According to Zhitong Finance APP, Qunzhi Consulting stated that in 2024, the Global Smart Phone market will finally see a rebound, with shipments expected to grow by around 7% year-on-year. The Global Smart Phone market will experience a significant recovery in 2024. The demand in the high-end market remains notably resilient, and much of the mass-market demand that emerged during the pandemic is also entering a new replacement cycle. According to Sigmaintell data, shipments of Global Smart Phones in 2024 are expected to be around 1.18 billion units, a year-on-year increase of about 6.8%. After two consecutive years of negative growth, the market is expected to achieve a high single-digit growth for the first time, with market confidence likely to be sustained.

In terms of competitive landscape, the top three in the Global market will remain stable in 2024, with the domestic non-Apple camp being active and Apple facing challenges in China.

In the competitive arena of Global Smart Phone shipments in 2024, the top three will still be dominated by Samsung, Apple, and Xiaomi, with the competition between Samsung and Apple expected to be more intense in 2025.

Ranked first is Samsung, with global shipments of about 0.22 billion units in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. This is mainly due to the significant competition pressure faced in the mid-range mobile phone market in 2024. In 2024, domestic brands are increasing their entry into overseas Emerging Markets, raising the banner of 5G cost-effectiveness, resulting in general growth in demand for the Samsung A series. As a strong advocate for AI experience, Samsung is expected to further deepen the application of AI technology in Smart Phones in 2025, providing users with more personalized and differentiated experiences through high-end flagship phones. However, Samsung also needs to optimize its product portfolio and enhance the competitiveness of its mid-range products to cope with the rapid entry of domestic brands into Emerging Markets and solidify its position in the Global market.

Ranked second is Apple, with global shipments of 0.22 billion units in 2024, experiencing a slight decline year-on-year. Lack of Hardware innovation has been a contentious topic for the iPhone series in recent years. However, the continuity of the premium brand tone and the brand's long-term cultivation in the high-end market keep its competitive edge strong. In terms of global shipments, the gap between iPhone and Samsung is gradually narrowing, with market shares differing by 0.5%. In 2025, the competition in the Global landscape between Samsung and Apple will be even more intense. If Samsung slows its pursuit of shipment volume in 2025 to consolidate profit demands, the top position in global shipments may change hands.

The domestic market performance is outstanding mainly in the non-Apple segment. According to Sigmaintell data, the domestic Smart Phone market in 2024 is expected to ship about 0.28 billion units, a year-on-year growth of 4.7%. The top 1-4 positions are all occupied by domestic brands, and Apple will increasingly face flagship pressure from domestic manufacturers.

In 2024, vivo ranked first in domestic shipments with approximately 49.1 million units, achieving a year-on-year growth of 6.7%. In addition to the product strategy of diversifying offerings in 2024, the X series has shown significant results in premium positioning and differentiation, particularly with the X100S series; secondly, the iQOO sub-brand stands out among all sub-brands in 2024, appealing to many young Consumers with product selling points like performance, Battery, and cost-effectiveness.

Huawei took second place with approximately 45.4 million units and a market share of 16.1%. From Kirin chips to HarmonyOS, Huawei's Nova series in 2024 maintains traditional advantages while leveraging channel deployment and delegating some high-end technologies to ensure strong competitiveness in the domestic market. However, it is expected that in 2025, Huawei's overall domestic performance will remain under pressure due to its return and the boost from several self-researched technologies. Whether the actual user experience can match and continue the brand momentum is one of the pressures Huawei will face in 2025.

Ranking third to fifth are OPPO, Honor, and Apple. The market shares of these brands fluctuate around 15.3%, indicating intensified brand competition. Although Apple has made inroads into the AI field, it faces a blooming high-end AI market among domestic brands in 2024, and the earliest launch of Apple AI on domestic iPhones may still have to wait until the first half of 2025, leading to a feeling of inadequacy in strategic planning. For 2025, the first blow of the national subsidy policy will exclude products priced above 6,000 yuan, which will undoubtedly affect Apple's domestic shipments. It is expected that in 2025, Apple will continue to face multiple challenges including slowing shipment growth, intensified market competition, and national regulations on AI launches.

Market outlook suggests continued growth in cell phone demand in 2025, with structural replacement demand becoming more significant.

Looking ahead to 2025, the surge in replacement demand will drive structural growth in Smart Phone market demand as various brands implement high-end strategies and improve cost-performance ratios. According to Sigmaintell data, it is expected that the Global Smart Phone shipment volume in 2025 will be about 1.23 billion units, a year-on-year growth of 4.0%. For the domestic market, with the implementation of national subsidies for phones across various regions, domestic Smart Phone shipments are expected to reach about 0.3 billion units, a year-on-year growth of approximately 4.9%.

Qunzhi Consulting believes that under the stable growth tone of the current situation, how brand manufacturers compete for the maximization of quantity and profit will be a key topic that everyone will face in 2025. In 2025, it is expected that with the combination of the AI Technology cycle and the replacement cycle, multiple Bullish factors will require brands to rely more on the policies of major economies to address several significant challenges such as Exchange Rates, material cost control, stable supply delivery, and reasonable inventory management.

For structural demand growth, the increase in high-end and low-end price segments will be more significant.

First, the phenomenon of Consumer stratification will become increasingly significant under the tone of slowing growth in the Global economic landscape. While brands drive high-end offerings, they are also increasingly advancing into the low-end market to stimulate the replacement demand of price-sensitive users.

Second, there is a demand for product upgrades in the Smart Phone market. Although AI applications have yet to produce revolutionary application scenarios, the enhancement of AI significantly raises overall Hardware costs, with the increase in flagship chipset costs being a clear signal. It is expected that by 2025, as various brands fiercely promote AI and large models, the overall increase in Hardware costs will also push up the average selling price of products, which will be passed on to Consumers.