At 9:30 PM Beijing time tonight, the USA's January non-farm payroll report will make a significant appearance.

As the first non-farm data following Trump's administration, how will the labor market perform? It is highly anticipated by the market.

Before the data release, the Asia-Pacific market generally showed lackluster performance today, with the Indonesia Composite Index down over 2%, and the Japanese and South Korean stock markets all closing lower. However, A-shares in Hk have performed independently due to the explosive popularity of Technology themes.

As of the time of publication, the USD is fluctuating, currently falling below the 108 mark; spot Gold briefly broke through 2870 USD/ounce during the session, increasing nearly 0.4% on the day.

Will non-farm payrolls slow down significantly?

Due to annual revisions, California wildfires, and seasonal adjustments, the market generally expects the January non-farm data to slow down significantly, but still maintain relative stability.

An increase of 0.17 million is expected, the unemployment rate is projected to stabilize at 4.1%, and the average hourly wage growth rate is expected to remain at 0.3%.

In December of last year, the USA added 256,000 non-farm jobs, the largest increase in nine months, far exceeding expectations; meanwhile, the unemployment rate decreased from the previous month's 4.2% to 4.1%.

Recent data shows that the labor market is slowing but still remains robust.

This Wednesday, the USA's January ADP private sector employment data, known as the 'small non-farm,' significantly exceeded expectations, with 183,000 new jobs added in January, clearly above the economists' expectation of 150,000.

The USA's January ISM services sector data fell short of expectations, declining from December, indicating a slight weakening in the growth momentum of this mainstay of the USA economy.

Additionally, the USA's December JOLTS job openings stood at 7.6 million, significantly below the expected 8 million.

Goldman Sachs, Citibank, and other Wall Street investment banks also believe that the labor market will continue to remain strong.

Goldman Sachs expects the non-farm employment number for January to increase by 190,000, higher than the market expectation of 170,000; the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

Citibank also stated that due to seasonal additions, the expected new non-farm jobs would be 195,000, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%, higher than the general market expectation.

How much room is there for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in the first half of the year?

It is worth noting that the non-farm payroll data in January is also the first major inflation data since Trump 2.0.

Since taking office, Trump has continuously wielded the "tariff big stick," and immigration policies may impact the USA and global economy.

Recently, Federal Reserve official Goolsbee warned that this tariff impact from Trump will be much larger than in 2018.

If inflation rises or progress stalls in 2025, the Federal Reserve will face a difficult situation.

Previously, Trump frequently called for the Federal Reserve to cut rates and even threatened to "fire" Powell.

However, according to recent revelations from US Treasury Secretary Basant, Trump will not pressure Powell on interest rates for now. Last week he even expressed "uncharacteristically" that pausing interest rates is the "right approach."

In the interest rate meeting at the end of January, the Federal Reserve kept the rate unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.

Powell pointed out that the Federal Reserve does not need to rush to adjust its policy stance. Regarding Trump's new policies, he did not comment much, only stating that the Federal Reserve is still observing.

Next week, Powell will attend a congressional hearing for the first time this year to face questioning, and his statements about the timing of interest rate cuts have become a focus for the market.

According to the latest FedWatch tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain its position in March is 85.5%, with a continued unchanged probability of 62.9% in May, and the possibility of a rate cut in June does not exceed 50%.

Jefferies Financial US economist Simons stated that given Powell's recent confidence in the labor market, Friday's non-farm payroll report is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve.

"Employment data is always a risk event for the market, but after Powell reiterated that he and his colleagues are 'not in a hurry' to advance further interest rate cuts, these data seem unlikely to change the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance."

Get a sneak peek at important financial events, discover investment opportunities early! Open futubull> Market> USA Stock>Financial Calendar/Selected macroeconomic data, seize the investment opportunities first!

Editor/new