2月2日，“最懂 $Apple (AAPL.US)$ 的分析师”郭明錤表示，iPhone的营收因产品组合持续改善而抵消了出货量下滑，但这一策略的有效性已进入倒计时，Pro机型占比不可能无止境地提高。2025财年第一季度财报中iPhone营收开始下降就是一个警示信号。

Apple Intelligence is not very helpful for iPhone sales.

The USA is currently the most representative place in the Global for providing Apple Intelligence. Additionally, the Japan market, which has yet to provide Apple Intelligence, is used as a comparison.

Assuming that the product mix ratio sold by Apple in different regions is similar, and disregarding Exchange Rates and price differences in various countries, the revenue share and shipment share should be similar. Furthermore, it is assumed that the USA accounts for about 75% of total sales/shipments in the Americas. Although these assumptions are not precise, they are sufficient to determine trends.

Based on Apple's January 30 Earnings Reports and the aforementioned assumptions:

The USA accounts for global iPhone shipment volume: 31.8% in the fourth quarter of 2024, and 31.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, Japan accounted for 7.2% of the global iPhone shipments, compared to 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023.

According to Ming-Chi Kuo's latest industry survey, the global shipments of the iPhone 16 series in the fourth quarter of 2024 are estimated to be about 66 million units, compared to 68 million units for the iPhone 15 series in the fourth quarter of 2023.

The shipments of the new iPhone in the USA for the fourth quarter of 2024 have slightly decreased year-on-year. Interestingly, the Japanese market, which did not provide Apple Intelligence data, instead saw a high single-digit year-on-year growth in iPhone shipments in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The potential errors in this estimate arise from the assumptions mentioned above, but it can be reasonably inferred that even if the iPhone shipments in the USA achieve year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, the extent should still be limited. Additionally, if one considers the conclusion from third-party surveys indicating low consumer interest in Apple Intelligence, it aligns with Ming-Chi Kuo's earlier conclusions.

The revenue from the iPhone has offset the decline in shipments due to a continuous improvement in the product mix, but the effectiveness of this strategy has entered a countdown.

According to Ming-Chi Kuo's industry survey, overall iPhone shipments in the fourth quarter of 2024 decreased by about 5.8%, but iPhone revenue only declined by 0.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to further optimization of the product mix.

Regarding the new Pro series models accounting for total shipments, the share significantly increased from 54% in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 61%. Additionally, users purchasing the Pro series are likely to opt for higher storage versions at a premium price, thus the Pro series makes a significant contribution to the average unit price. Not every company can execute a strategy of increasing unit price to offset declining shipments to maintain revenue; this requires strong brand power.

However, the proportion of Pro models cannot increase indefinitely; the decline in iPhone revenue noted in the earnings reports for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 serves as a warning signal. If Apple does not adjust its iPhone product and sales strategy, continuing along this trend could lead to a mid-single-digit year-on-year decline in iPhone revenue by 2026.

Editor/danial