Source: Yao Wang Hou Shi
Author: Xingzheng Strategy Team
Introduction: The industrial trend represented by new momentum directions such as AI, high-end manufacturing, and new consumption is expected to gradually reflect investment opportunities in the stock market. We have selected the top ten industrial trends that will welcome significant changes in development by 2025, which are expected to become important investment main lines for investors' reference:
1. AI Applications: Overseas giants have gradually fulfilled their performance, and the domestic commercialization cycle is gradually opening up.
Since the launch of ChatGPT, various large models and application companies have been attempting to launch various applications based on large models to find user growth and commercial closure opportunities. However, despite the successive release of large models like GPT-4o, Llama 3, Claude 3.5, o1, with continuous performance improvements, the progress of AI applications has been relatively below expectations.
Recently, the performance of US software stocks represented by AppLovin has exceeded expectations, verifying the commercialization of AI applications. In Q3 2024, the US AI advertising marketing leading company AppLovin reported revenue of $1.2 billion, up 39% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 36%. Among them, the AI recommendation engine AXON drove software platform revenue to $0.835 billion, up 66% year-on-year, indicating the effectiveness of its marketing business model driven by AI applications, thus validating the commercialization of AI advertising. Additionally, the latest disclosed earnings reports from North American tech giants show that AI applications are continuously empowering business growth, leading to innovation in business models and a closed loop of user growth and income enhancement.
Domestically, Doubao confirms the potential of AI application scenarios, and 2025 may become the dawn of C-end applications. Since the official release of the Doubao large model family in May 2024, until the Winter Power Conference in December, in just seven months, the Doubao large model team has released several significant achievements such as Doubao-pro, Seed-TTS, Seed-ASR, Seed-Music, SeedEdit, video generation model, visual understanding model, etc., forming a Doubao large model family that covers all fields. Among them, the general-purpose large model Doubao-pro has been upgraded and iterated, and its capabilities have fully aligned with GPT-4o levels in all aspects, already achieving commercialization in sectors like Autos, smart terminals, retail, and gaming, showcasing strong capabilities in both B2B and B2C. The commercialization of Doubao models has verified the potential of domestic AI application scenarios, and as technology continues to iterate and costs decrease, the penetration rate of AI in the C-end is expected to further increase, potentially making 2025 the year of C-end applications.

It is recommended to pay attention to the following industrial trends: 1) AI large models and application companies: Previously, AI large models have already been applied in multiple industries, but mainly concentrated in B-end. In the future, as technology continues to iterate and costs decrease, further improvements in penetration rates in the C-end are anticipated, forming a positive cycle of user growth and commercialization, leading AI large model and application companies to gradually enter the profit realization phase; 2) AIGC empowering the media field: AI applications such as large models and multimodal continue to break through, significantly enhancing the AIGC empowerment effect in the media fields of gaming, film, Publishing, and marketing, achieving cost reductions and efficiency improvements on the cost side, while also boosting user growth and conversion efficiency on the revenue side, bringing new growth poles to the industry.
II. Edge AI: The penetration rate of AI Smart Phones and AIPC is rapidly increasing, and AI wearables have become a new trend.
Since 2024, major manufacturers have accelerated the layout of AI Smart Phones and AIPC new products, increasing the replacement cycle.
In terms of AI Smart Phones, major global manufacturers such as Apple, Google, and Samsung, as well as leading Chinese manufacturers like Honor, OPPO, Xiaomi, and vivo have all launched new models focusing on AI features, driving the AI Smart Phone shipment volume into a rapid growth phase. According to IDC data, it is expected that the global shipment of AI Smart Phones will reach 0.234 billion units in 2024, with a penetration rate of about 19%, and is expected to continue to grow by 73.1% in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 78.4% from 2023 to 2028.
In terms of AIPC, leading brand manufacturers like Lenovo are actively driving the development of the AIPC industry, while new players like NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel are making concentrated efforts in the AIPC market in early 2025, with products equipped with high-performance chips, releasing AIPC's potential. Furthermore, the collaboration model between AI large models and PC manufacturers has opened up a resonant era between cloud and terminal, and by the end of 2024, Byte will collaborate with Lenovo to integrate the Doubao large model into Lenovo's AI desktop assistant, assisting it in becoming an intelligent conversational assistant that integrates functions such as AI search, writing, and chatting, which is expected to greatly enhance the PC's interactive experience. With new players entering the market to release AIPC's high-performance potential, coupled with the accelerated landing of large models on the PC side, it is expected to drive AIPC into a new wave of replacement. Canalys predicts that the total shipment of AIPC in 2024 will reach 44 million units, and it is expected to break the 0.1 billion unit mark by 2025.


Large models empower wearable devices such as glasses, opening up the blue ocean market for edge AI. Compared to XR devices, AI glasses have advantages such as lightweight, convenient interaction, and long battery life. Overseas AI glasses have already achieved success during initial trials, with Ray-Ban Meta’s sales and reputation achieving great results in September 2023. Domestically, on December 19, 2024, Shanjiji released the first domestically mass-produced AI photography glasses, Shanjiji AI Paipai Glasses, which had sold out the planned total of 0.05 million pairs by December 20, originally scheduled for production before the Spring Festival. Due to the immense market and ecological potential behind AI glasses, both large enterprises and new players are rushing to enter the market, leading to phenomenon products like Ray-Ban & Meta, as well as many hardware manufacturers such as Samsung, Xiaomi, and Apple also entering. According to WellsonXR's predictions, starting from 2025, glasses without displays for AI are expected to experience massive growth, quickly penetrating the traditional glasses market. By 2035, global sales of AI and AR smart glasses are expected to reach 1.4 billion pairs, almost equivalent to the scale of smart phones, and will become a universal computing platform and terminal for new humans.

Suggestions to pay attention to the following industry trends: 1) Complete machine manufacturers and their supporting upstream industry chain: The iteration of new products by complete machine manufacturers drives demand in the industry chain, leading enterprises have a stronger competitive edge, pay attention to the release of new products by leading manufacturers that promote brand shipment improvement, as well as upstream investment opportunities brought about by boosted industry chain demand, including requirements arising from storage, heat dissipation, lightweight structures, and reduced energy consumption, leading to opportunities in the chip, power battery, module, liquid cooling, screen, sensor, and other upstream industry chain. 2) AI glasses industry chain: AI wearable devices represented by AI glasses have opened up a blue ocean market for edge AI, pay attention to AI glasses manufacturing companies, as well as the upstream edge model, chip, lens related industry chain.
III. Computing Power: Overseas capital expenditures continue to rise, and domestic computing power arms race is gearing up.
Overseas, the Scaling Laws principle continues to be effective, and North American major manufacturers' capital expenditures are expected to continue to rise. Since mid-2024, the slowdown in model iteration speed has raised market skepticism about the Scaling Laws, while the release of Open AI o1 has largely alleviated market pessimism regarding model performance, as it resolved the data wall issue through the introduction of thought chains, greatly enhancing the model's reasoning and generalization capabilities. New technological approaches promote continuous model iteration, and training demand is expected to continue to grow rapidly, with reasoning demand showing stronger driving force, and overseas cloud manufacturers' capital investment in the AI field will become more resolute.

In China, domestic large models represented by ByteDance are rising and are expected to drive domestic internet giants' spending on computing power, marking the beginning of a domestic computing power arms race. Leveraging the Doubao large model, ByteDance is continuing to deepen its layout of AIGC computing power, models, and AI applications, with ongoing significant investments in computing power. On January 14, 2025, the Shanxi Government Service Platform disclosed that the construction land planning permit for the second phase project of ByteDance's Volcano Cloud (Datong) Technology Co., Ltd.’s Taihang Computing Power Center has been officially approved, with a total investment of 4.5 billion yuan, which is greater than the 2.8 billion yuan investment of the first phase project. Based on ByteDance's investment in computing power, domestic internet companies like Tencent and Alibaba are expected to continue increasing their investments in AI computing power infrastructure, ushering in the era of large-scale computing power investment in China, which is likely to continuously stimulate demand in the domestic computing power industry chain.

Leading domestic manufacturers are rising rapidly, and there is still considerable room for growth despite the rapid iteration of the industry. Large model training requires large AI computing power clusters, and optical modules, as the core hardware infrastructure, have quickly risen among domestic manufacturers. In 2023, domestic companies occupied 7 out of the global top 10 optical module suppliers, and their delivery capabilities play an important role in the AI development in North America. Considering the needs of AI development in North America, the probability of further restrictions on optical modules is relatively low. Moreover, with the development of optical communication towards high speed, there is a strong demand for cost reduction, power consumption reduction, and speed increase, with complementary industry trends such as 1.6T optical modules, CPO technology, copper connection, and liquid cooling continuously evolving, which is expected to bring more rich investment opportunities to the AI computing industry chain.

It is recommended to focus on the following industrial trends: 1) Optical modules: As the core of AI computing hardware infrastructure, domestic manufacturers occupy a major share of the global optical module industry, with huge room for growth; continue to pay attention to leading domestic optical module suppliers; 2) New technologies and trends under continuous iteration of the industry: As optical communication develops towards high speed, there is a strong demand for cost reduction, power consumption reduction, and speed increase, which continues to bring new demands and increments, focusing on high-speed optical modules, CPO technology, copper connection, and liquid cooling trends.
IV. Semiconductor self-control: External restrictions are forcing accelerated domestic alternatives, and domestic chips have great potential.
Semiconductor industry sanctions are escalating step by step, and domestic substitution is imperative. Since 2018, the USA has been increasingly frequent and escalating semiconductor controls against China, extending from downstream companies like Huawei and ZTE to upstream equipment, forming a comprehensive blockade against various links of China's semiconductor industry. The "Chip Act" released in August 2022 further escalated the sanctions, expanding the scope to advanced process sectors. Since Trump took office, the semiconductor industry chain has been a high-end manufacturing industry that the USA attempts to protect its leading position in, and sanctions continue to escalate. In December 2024, the USA issued new regulations on semiconductor export controls, placing 136 Chinese entities and 4 overseas subsidiaries of Chinese entities on the trade restriction list, targeting chips used in advanced AI. In January 2025, BIS released a new ban prohibiting China from importing high-performance AI chips, and processes of 16nm and lower have been included in the controls; thus, domestic substitution for advanced processes is urgent. As external sanctions intensify, the urgency and necessity of self-control are highlighted, and domestic substitution is inevitable.

The evolution of AI industry trends combined with the accelerated process of self-control shows great potential for domestic AI chips. Leading internet companies, represented by ByteDance, are accelerating the establishment of AI data centers, and after this ban, procurement of high-performance AI chips represented by NVIDIA will be restricted. Domestic internet giants, which were originally NVIDIA customers, are beginning to look for new paths. In the future, under the policy drive, more internet companies are expected to turn to domestic AI chip server manufacturers for cooperation, creating new replacement demands for domestic AI chips and forcing the accelerated replacement of domestic AI computing power chips. Currently, the mainstream AI chips are GPUs and ASICs, among which NVIDIA's H series GPUs occupy a major market share. The performance of domestic AI chips is continually catching up, with companies like Huawei HiSilicon, Cambrian (688256.SH), and Birun Technology releasing AI chips for training and inference, with performance continuously improving. The performance of Huawei’s Ascend 910B has successfully surpassed NVIDIA’s A100, and the upcoming 910C is expected to match NVIDIA's former flagship product H200. In a complex and ever-changing external environment, the demand for domestic AI computing power is continuously increasing, and many domestic AI chip companies are likely to seize the window of opportunity to accelerate independent research and technological breakthroughs.

Currently, the domestic substitution rate of many sectors in the semiconductor field is still low, and the incremental space brought by domestic substitution is vast; there are still many sectors with low domestic substitution rates and significant market space. Although domestic semiconductor manufacturers have achieved breakthroughs in multiple fields, there are still many sectors with low domestic substitution rates and large market space, such as etching, thin film deposition, photolithography, and measurement monitoring, where the increment space brought by domestic substitution is vast. In recent years, the country has continually increased policy support in core choke points in the semiconductor industry chain, and domestic companies are also concentrating their efforts on tackling core technologies, breaking through technological limitations with a national system, with a batch of leading enterprises emerging in each subdivision field driving domestic substitution forward, making the future of the domestic substitution process promising.

It is recommended to focus on the following industrial trends: 1) Domestic AI chip manufacturers and foundries: The evolution of AI industry trends combined with the accelerated process of self-control is creating incremental space for the industry, and there is great potential for domestic AI chips; pay attention to leading domestic AI chip manufacturers and foundries; 2) Sectors with low domestic substitution rates and large market space: Currently, many sectors in the semiconductor field have low domestic substitution rates, and the incremental space brought by domestic substitution is vast, including etching, thin film deposition, photolithography, and measurement monitoring.
5. Humanoid Robots: Overseas giants have positive mass production guidance, and domestic diversified players are actively entering the market.
Overseas, giants have positive mass production guidance, and the industry chain ecosystem is continuously improving. On January 9, at CES, Musk revealed via video interview that Tesla plans to produce thousands of humanoid robots by 2025, and if all goes well, aims to increase production tenfold in 2026 compared to 2025, amounting to about 0.05 million to 0.1 million units, with further increases by ten times in 2027. The mass production plans of foreign giants exceed expectations, making 2025 likely a milestone year for humanoid robots, continuously catalyzing the industry chain. Currently, there is a strong technical foundation for robots abroad, with major players accelerating their entry and actively promoting product iterations. Tesla has repeatedly updated the interaction capabilities of Optimus via video and is set to launch its third-generation product in the first half of 2025; OpenAI announced job postings in January to form a robotics department, officially returning to the robotics track; NVIDIA built the Cosmos world foundational model platform, providing a more straightforward and efficient tool for robot development, with nearly half of the announced partners being Chinese enterprises. The overseas industry chain ecosystem is gradually improving, with the domestic humanoid robot industry chain expected to accelerate its benefits.

Domestically, several robotics companies are accelerating commercialization, with major internet companies and leading new energy firms entering the space. Since 2024, more companies have been entering the robotics sector, actively advancing product iterations and launching new products. Some products have successfully completed commercialization trials in specific fields, and several manufacturers have achieved mass production and sales. For example, UBTECH's Walker S1 robot has undergone two months of training at a Foxconn factory, successfully validating the feasibility of humanoid robots in logistics scenarios; Zhi Yuan, as a representative innovative robotics enterprise in China, announced on December 16, 2024, the launch of mass production for general-purpose robots, having produced 1,000 units by January 6, marking a comprehensive breakthrough from technology R&D to commercial application and mass production in the field of intelligent robotics in China. Meanwhile, supported by favorable policies and promising industry prospects, star enterprises across various domestic sectors, including Huawei, ByteDance, Contemporary Amperex Technology, and BYD from multiple industries such as internet and new energy, are accelerating their layouts in the robotics sector, indicating that the feasibility of humanoid robots in manufacturing is improving and is expected to drive a new wave of industrial development.

Pay attention to the following industry trends: 1) Domestic complete robot manufacturers: By 2025, the humanoid robot industry chain is expected to transition from Thematic Investment into a profit realization phase, benefiting from cost control advantages under Chinese manufacturing and a commercial closure in diversified domestic application scenarios. Domestic complete robot manufacturers are likely to benefit from dual advantages from both the cost and demand sides, gradually showcasing competitive strength internationally. 2) High-value parts segments in the industry chain: Domestic and foreign robots are gradually entering the mass production phase, benefiting the entire industrial chain. Focus on high-value parts segments in the industry chain, such as Electric Machines, ball screws, reducers, and Sensors.
6. Intelligent Driving: The penetration rate of advanced autonomous driving is increasing, and end-to-end large models will become key competitive points.
In 2024, the penetration rate of L2+ will further increase, with various car companies actively laying out city NOA, making advanced smart driving gradually become "standard configuration". In terms of the development layout of smart driving functions, the basic L2 driving functions, due to their high technological maturity, will see manufacturers focus more on improving driving safety, while low solution prices and intense market competition also stimulate overseas demand. Meanwhile, advanced smart driving features such as highway NOA, urban NOA, and the future possible full-scenario point-to-point functionalities will become new directions for the landing of new technologies in the smart driving track, continuously optimizing features will enhance user experiences. Since 2024, car companies have rapidly advanced the no-map urban NOA, with leading companies like Li Auto, XPeng, and Huawei (HarmonyOS Intelligent Travel) having laid out for over a year and achieved certain data accumulation, now almost completely delivering nationwide no-map NOA. New entrants like Aion and Tengshi are also accelerating their layouts for urban NOA functions. Advanced smart driving is expected to become the standard configuration for car companies. According to Yiou Research Institute data, in 2023, the penetration rate of China's L2+ smart driving functions was 4.1%, and it is expected to rise to 8.5% in 2024, reaching 80% by 2030.

The application of end-to-end technology will significantly enhance autonomous driving capabilities, becoming the threshold for high-end competition in China's smart driving market in 2025 and beyond. The end-to-end system maps sensor inputs directly to vehicle control outputs through a unified deep learning model, reducing intermediate links, thus offering higher real-time performance and accuracy compared to traditional smart driving solutions. It also possesses stronger generalization capabilities, adapting to complex and variable road environments and is becoming the mainstream technological focus for smart driving enterprises. In March 2024, Tesla upgraded its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system to FSD V12, being the first in the world to achieve an end-to-end breakthrough. This upgrade transformed former manual coding rules (i.e., C++ code) into neural networks, enabling direct control of vehicle behavior by learning from a vast amount of video data through input-output comparisons, significantly enhancing smart driving capabilities. Domestic new forces are closely following suit, increasing their end-to-end intelligent driving layouts. XPeng Motors will launch the mass-produced "end-to-end" large model in July 2024; the XNGP intelligent driving assistance system has already covered 399 cities. Additionally, manufacturers like Xiaomi Motors, NIO, and Huawei are actively promoting the application of end-to-end technology in the field of smart driving. As advanced smart driving increasingly becomes an industry standard, leveraging end-to-end technological innovations to enhance driving capabilities is becoming the threshold for high-end competition in China's smart driving market. Leading car manufacturers in intelligent driving technology are likely to achieve differentiated advantages in the future, translating into increased sales.

Pay attention to the following industry trends: 1) Domestic technology-leading independent brand whole vehicle manufacturers: The vehicle exchange policy continues, with favorable demand side and intelligent industrial trends combined, high-quality independent brand whole vehicle manufacturers with leading intelligent technology, improving product and brand cycles are likely to gain differentiated advantages; 2) Components: The space for penetrating advanced smart driving remains large, and upstream related components continue to benefit, integrating rapidly with new quality productive industry chains such as robotics. Focus on the core threads related to intelligence (intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit, etc.) and areas creating a second growth pole through robotics and other new quality productive forces (perception, decision-making, and control systems, etc.).
VII. Low-altitude Economy: "Policy + Technology + Application Scenarios" Three-pronged Drive for Accelerated Industry Implementation.
As a typical industry blending new production capacity with China's traditional advantageous industries, the low-altitude economy receives significant attention from the state, with top-level design driving rapid industry advancement. In December 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference listed the low-altitude economy as a strategic emerging industry; in March 2024, the government work report first mentioned the low-altitude economy, proposing to "actively build new growth engines such as biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy," further enhancing its strategic status. In December 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission established a new Low-altitude Economy Development Department, responsible for drafting and organizing the implementation of development strategies and policies for the low-altitude economy, which will help coordinate multi-department efforts to promote industry development and reflects an increased emphasis by the government on the low-altitude economy.


In 2024, driven by top-level design, the industry chain is overall in the planning and pilot stage. By 2025, with accelerated infrastructure construction and technological innovation fostering industry upgrades under policy support, alongside expanding market demand and application scenarios, the development of the low-altitude economy is expected to enter a stage of rapid realization. On one hand, eVTOL, as a flying vehicle capable of vertical takeoff and landing, offers advantages over traditional helicopters such as requiring no runway for takeoff, high safety, and low noise, making it one of the important carriers of the low-altitude economy. Currently, China's certification work for eVTOL is among the world's leaders, with local governments actively promoting low-altitude economic pilots, which is likely to propel further development and progress in low-altitude airspace and application sectors. On the other hand, the low-altitude economy spans the manufacturing and service industries, representing a comprehensive economic form that can promote the synergistic development of related fields, and has a broad range of downstream application areas, including logistics, agriculture, and tourism, among others already exploring commercialization. In the future, it is expected to further diffuse into consumer and emergency public service areas, potentially achieving scaled and normalized development in more fields, becoming a significant force driving high-quality economic and social development.



It is recommended to pay attention to the following industry trends: 1) Major manufacturers: As the core of the industry chain, major manufacturers play a key role in the low-altitude economy industry chain, responsible for aircraft design, system integration, and body manufacturing. China's major manufacturers have been at the forefront of the world in eVTOL certification work, and with local governments actively promoting pilots, major manufacturers are likely to further boost order deliveries and enter a profit realization stage. 2) Upstream and downstream supply chains, including upstream manufacturing sectors (such as carbon fiber materials, avionics systems) that provide assurance for major manufacturers, as well as service sectors (such as air traffic control systems, information systems) that support the application rollout for major manufacturers.
VIII. First-release Economy: A New Engine for Consumption Growth, A New Transformation in Business Models.
The first-release economy is a new consumption model that aligns with the current emphasis on emotion and experience; policy focus is on it, and it is expected to become a new engine for this round of consumption growth. The first-release economy refers to economic activities where enterprises launch new products, new business formats, new modes, new services, and new technologies, such as opening first stores. Compared to regular brand stores, first stores pay more attention to innovation in consumption scenarios, business models, and product services, aligning with the current consumer psychology that values emotion and experience more. In 2024, the Central Economic Work Conference prioritized "expanding domestic demand in all dimensions" and specifically emphasized "actively developing the first-release economy, ice and snow economy, and silver-haired economy." Recently, the Ministry of Commerce also stated that "it will accelerate the introduction of policy documents to promote the first-release economy, guiding localities to identify their positioning and develop the first-release economy in a localized manner." With this round of steady growth policies focusing on consumption, the 'first-release economy' as an emerging consumption model is expected to become an essential engine for stimulating new consumption power and leading new consumption trends, and it will likely continue to receive policy attention.


By innovating consumption scenarios and business forms, and enhancing brand value, the first-release economy is also empowering traditional industries such as retail, becoming a significant driving force for transforming traditional business models and creating a second growth curve. In 2024, retail stores like Sam's Club and Pang Donglai, which focus on product quality and service experience, are emerging, with new consumption cultures represented by trendy toys and goods economy gaining momentum. This indicates a shift in Chinese consumer behavior towards valuing product quality and service experience, with a higher pursuit of high-quality and emotional consumption. In the future, the 'first-release economy' is not just a new business format or model, but a strategic choice to invigorate corporate innovation and enhance brand value. For example, in retail, the industry has been facing significant operational pressure due to intensified competition and e-commerce impact. Since 2024, retailers have been actively adjusting their operational strategies. Yonghui Superstores is reforming its stores based on the 'Pang Donglai' model; Bailian Group is upgrading its Zhonglian Department Store to Bailian ZX Creative Space, creating a dimension culture experience space tailored for Generation Z. Through the new model transformation of "first stores", sales, foot traffic, and brand competitiveness have been significantly boosted, injecting new vitality into traditional forms. Looking ahead, "valuing supply chain channels and commodity power upgrades + service experience optimization" is expected to become an essential path for the transformation and development of offline retail, and the connotation of the 'first-release economy' is continuously empowering various industries.

It is recommended to pay attention to the following industry trends: 1) "Renewed" traditional retailers post-transformation: With offline traffic returning, traditional format reform holds significant potential, aligning with the policy direction of the first-release economy; they are expected to actively explore transformations that align with consumption trends to seize opportunities of returning traffic and assist in operational recovery; 2) High-boom new retail track: New retail that fits the connotation of first-release economy and responds to trends of emotional and experiential consumption, including trendy toys, goods, AI consumption, etc.; 3) Exhibitions: Supporting services for showcasing new products and new business formats.
9. New Energy: The elimination of outdated capacity is accelerating, and breakthroughs in new technologies are emerging.
In the past two years, the supply in the New Energy Industry has undergone accelerated clearing, with signs of inventory replenishment appearing in certain segments. The operating rate may first reach a turning point in 2025, gradually emerging from the cyclical bottom. Currently, the new supply in the Lithium Battery, Wind Power, and Photovoltaic industries has significantly slowed down, and the expansionary capital expenditure has drastically decreased. By the third quarter of 2024, the capacity utilization rate has dropped to a historical low, and supply is accelerating its clearing. Among them, there have been signs of inventory replenishment in the third quarter for batteries, wind power components, photovoltaic silicon materials, and inverters, and it is highly probable that the utilization rate will reach a turning point in 2025, with the fundamentals expected to gradually stabilize and improve, emerging from the cyclical bottom.

At the same time, with the reduction of supply, the concentration of leading companies in the Lithium Battery and Wind Power industries is gradually increasing. With the strengthening of policies supporting mergers and acquisitions and the elimination of inefficient and excess capacity, the competitive landscape of the industry is expected to further optimize in 2025, and industry consolidation may become an important focus. In the New Energy sector, the revenue concentration of leading companies in the battery and wind power industries has gradually increased over the past two years, indicating that outdated capacity is accelerating its clearance. Since 2024, the support for mergers and acquisitions and supply clearing has been strengthening, with the central economic work conference proposing "comprehensive governance of 'involution' competition". Industry consolidation is expected to accelerate in 2025, further speeding up the clearing of the industry and optimizing the competitive landscape, reinforcing the market position of leading companies.



Technological iteration promotes improvements in battery efficiency, and new technologies are expected to bring about a second growth peak in the industry. Cost reduction and efficiency improvement are the core logic for the development of the New Energy Industry. Currently, the technological routes for photovoltaic batteries are rich, and a tiered iterative route has already formed. PERC batteries will gradually exit the historical stage, and the current new technologies mainly include TOPCon, HJT, and BC. From the perspective of production capacity, TOPCon batteries currently occupy a high proportion and have entered a stage of explosive mass production, while BC and HJT batteries are in the early stages of mass production conversion, with capacity expansion closely following. Currently, both BC and HJT batteries have a power increase of 20-30W compared to the same type of TOPCon single module, indicating conditions for technological iteration from the perspective of conversion efficiency. As the mass production technology becomes feasible, BC and HJT capacities are expected to gradually ramp up in the future: for BC batteries, domestic leaders have explored and iterated mass production conversion for many years; the n-TBC technology can achieve significant power improvements compared to TOPCon batteries, thus becoming the choice for mass production of current BC technology; HJT battery patents held by SANYO in Japan expired in 2015, and after the elimination of patent barriers, domestic battery companies have begun to vigorously develop and promote HJT mass production technology, and leading companies have paved the way for mass production. With the iterative development and gradual implementation of new technologies, the industry is expected to welcome a second growth peak.


It is recommended to pay attention to the following industry trends: 1) Leading companies in each segment of the New Energy industry: the elimination of outdated capacity is accelerating, and the concentration of most industry leaders is gradually increasing, combined with industry self-discipline to rectify involutionary competition and mergers and acquisitions. Under the logic of 'the survivors are king', leading advantages are gradually strengthening; 2) The second growth peak under technological transformation: under the trend of cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the industry, new technologies such as BC and HJT are expected to become mainstream in the future, and mass production is gradually being implemented. Companies with early layouts and technological reserves are expected to seize development opportunities.
10. Military Industry: Under internal and external support, the existing demand is accelerating its release,mergers and acquisitions.The restructuring has entered an active period.
Geopolitical disturbances combined with the initiation of the 15th Five-Year Plan are expected to accelerate the release of existing demand in the industry under both domestic and foreign support. Previously, the Military Industry was under pressure due to factors such as the mid-term adjustments in the 14th Five-Year Plan and delays in order placements. The industry's supply has adjusted accordingly under the 'sales determine production' model, and both current inventory and capacity utilization rates have dropped to historically low levels. The year 2025 will mark the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the initiation of the 15th Five-Year Plan. With the onset of a new round of political cycles in the USA, geopolitical disturbances remain frequent. China's military spending is expected to continue maintaining a high growth rate, and the existing order demand is likely to accelerate its release. As the preparation and implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan gradually advance, the development guidance for the Military Industry in the next three to five years will become clearer, and with the opening of a new round of order cycles, the growth attribute is expected to strengthen, which may drive an overall recovery in the industry chain's prosperity.


As mergers and reorganizations in the industry chain enter an active phase, the pace of mergers and asset injections in the Military Industry is expected to accelerate, becoming an important catalyst for the industry's trends. Historically, mergers, reorganizations, and asset injections have always been significant themes in the Military Industry and are often one of the core driving factors of major industry trends in the sector. The Military Industry has many central state-owned enterprises, and the current asset securitization rate remains relatively low, with many high-quality unlisted assets, making it the main battleground for theme transactions related to mergers and reorganizations. In recent years, major asset restructuring among military central enterprises has been continuing. As the market for mergers and reorganizations becomes active, it will also provide support for industry trends.

It is recommended to pay attention to the following industry trends: 1) Main manufacturers in the Military Industry: downstream core assets, enhanced bargaining power after supply-side clearance, and profit elasticity upon acceleration of order releases; 2) Demand in emerging fields: including low-altitude economy, satellite internet, commercial big planes, underwater equipment, etc.
Risk Warning
Policy implementation is below expectations, and industry competition is intensifying, among other factors.
编辑/jayden
Comment(6)
Reason For Report