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FSD点燃乐观情绪!特斯拉Q4业绩虽逊于预期,但预计汽车业务今年重拾增长

FSD ignites optimistic sentiment! Although Tesla's Q4 performance fell short of expectations, the Autos Business is expected to regain growth this year.

wallstreetcn ·  Jan 29 22:38

Musk stated that a fully autonomous driving feature, which does not require human supervision, will be launched in June this year in Austin, Texas, and new, more affordable models are still on track for production in the first half of the year. Analysts believe this news excites investors and reverses the trend in Post-Market Trading. However, Tesla's CFO warned that Trump's tariffs will affect the company's profits.

After Post-Market Trading on Wednesday, January 29, the USA $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ released the Earnings Reports for the fourth quarter of 2024, which fell short of market expectations in areas such as revenue, profit, EPS, gross margin, and core Autos business income.

However, Tesla's outlook for the Autos business indicates that growth will resume this year, and investors are more excited about the new models starting production in the first half of the year, as well as the company's ongoing commitment to advancing Self-Driving Cars technology. In Post-Market Trading, the stock price initially fell and then rose, dropping 5% before sharply increasing by more than 6% at one point.

1) Key Financial Data

Revenue: In the fourth quarter, Tesla's revenue grew 2% year-on-year to $25.707 billion, significantly weaker than the Analyst's expectation of $27.201 billion.

EPS: The adjusted EPS for the quarter was $0.73, a 3% year-on-year increase, but weaker than the Analyst's expectation of $0.75.

Operating profit: The operating profit for the quarter decreased by 23% year-on-year to 1.583 billion USD, significantly lower than the Analyst's expectation of 2.68 billion USD. The company stated that this was mainly due to the decrease in average selling prices of models such as Model 3, Y, S, and X.

Net income: The net income for the quarter decreased by 71% year-on-year to 2.317 billion USD, compared to net income of 7.93 billion USD in the same period last year, which was mainly due to a one-time non-cash tax benefit of 5.9 billion USD. The adjusted net income for the quarter increased by 3% year-on-year to 2.566 billion USD.

Profit margin: The operating margin for the quarter was 6.2%, lower than 8.2% in the same period last year and 10.8% in the third quarter of 2024. The gross margin for the fourth quarter was 16.3%, weaker than the Analyst's expectation of 18.9%, and also lower than 17.6% in the same period last year.

Capital expenditures: The capital expenditures for the quarter increased by 21% year-on-year to $2.78 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $2.72 billion.

Cash situation: during the quarterfree cash flow2.03 billion USD, although down 1.6% year-on-year, it exceeded the market expectation of 1.75 billion USD.

2) Segmented Business Data

Core Autos Business: Revenue for the fourth quarter decreased by 8% year-on-year to $19.798 billion, of which $0.692 billion came from the sale of regulatory Crediting points. The gross margin for the Autos business, excluding regulatory Crediting, was 13.6%.

Energy business became the fastest-growing segment: Revenue from Energy production and storage for the fourth quarter was $3.061 billion, doubling year-on-year with a growth of 113%. The gross profit from the Energy business reached an all-time high, and Powerwall deployments also set new records.

Musk: This year, a test of the unsupervised version of Self-Driving Cars is being conducted in the USA, while a supervised version of Self-Driving Cars will be launched in China and Europe.

At the earnings call, Musk stated that Tesla will launch a fully autonomous driving (FSD) version in Austin, Texas, in June 2023, which does not require human driver supervision. This level of fully autonomous driving, which does not require regulation, is expected to be rolled out in the North American market by 2027.

He mentioned that the unregulated FSD trial in Austin in June would be offered as a paid service, "Tesla vehicles at the Fremont factory in California have already achieved this fully autonomous driving, and soon the Texas factory will also realize self-driving without human supervision."

An online forum collecting investors' questions for the earnings report day shows that self-driving car technology is a hot topic of concern. Tesla stated that it plans to launch a version of FSD that requires human supervision in China and Europe by 2025. Additionally, investors are also concerned about Musk's role in the Trump administration, as well as the recent controversial international political and public actions and their impact on the company.

Tesla also revealed in the earnings announcement that vehicle deliveries in the Chinese market reached an all-time high in the fourth quarter of last year, and it is expected that the overall automotive business of the company will resume growth by 2025. It is anticipated that energy storage deployments will increase by at least 50% this year, and the electric pickup Cybertruck is expected to meet the IRS consumer rebate standards.

The company stated that the cost-cutting measures in the fourth quarter are not as significant as originally expected, which is related to production line issues. The plan for new, cheaper affordable models is still expected to begin production in the first half of 2025, and the self-driving taxi project Cybercab is scheduled for production in 2026, with plans to launch its self-driving ride-hailing service in certain areas of the USA "later this year".

Analysts have suggested that the news about the self-driving technology and new model production ultimately excites investors, reversing the trends in Post-Market Trading.

Tesla emphasizes: the Model Y has once again become the best-selling model globally in 2024, with significant investments made in AI training computing.

Tesla stated that the new models planned for production this year will utilize the next-generation platform along with certain aspects of the company's existing platform, and will be manufactured on the same production line as current models. This will result in a reduction in costs that may not be as significant as previously anticipated, but will also allow for:

"To cautiously increase automobile production in a capital expenditure-efficient manner during uncertain times. This will help us fully utilize the currently expected maximum capacity of nearly 3 million vehicles, growing over 60% from the production levels of 2024, before investing in new production lines."

Tesla stated that in the fourth quarter of 2024, its vehicle delivery and energy deployment volumes both reached record highs, and it expected the Model Y to again be the best-selling model globally for the entire year of 2024. The new Model Y has now been launched in all markets, and the company emphasized:

"In 2024, we made significant investments in infrastructure that will stimulate the next wave of growth, including automotive manufacturing capacity for new models, AI training computing, and energy manufacturing capacity."

In the fourth quarter, the sales cost per vehicle decreased to an historic low of below $0.035 million, mainly due to improved raw material costs, which helped partially offset our investments in attractive financing and leasing options.

Tesla's CFO warned that Trump's tariffs will impact the company's profits, and that price affordability remains a pain point for users.

Public information shows that in the fourth quarter of last year, Tesla's vehicle deliveries were nearly 0.4956 million units, with an estimated total delivery volume of about 1.8 million units for the whole of 2024, marking the first decline in annual delivery volume for the company. Moreover, at the end of last year, Tesla offered a series of discounts to address backlogged inventory, reducing the price of its popular Model Y SUV in China, and launching an updated version, the Model Y Juniper.

Tesla acknowledged in its earnings report on Wednesday that "price affordability remains the top concern for customers." The company intends to "examine every aspect of sales costs per vehicle" to help continue lowering the prices of electric vehicles. In recent quarters, Musk has also advised investors not to focus solely on the current core business of selling cars, but to pay more attention to future self-driving and robotics technologies.

However, some pessimistic views suggest that half of Tesla's operating profit still comes from revenue generated by selling emission-related regulatory Credits (in the fourth quarter, this was $0.692 billion), and due to significant inventory clearance, the Autos business's gross margin is very low, indicating that the quality of the Earnings Reports is not high.

Additionally, an Analyst found that until the end of the Earnings Reports conference call, the company's management did not mention the surprising goal of "20% to 30% growth in Autos sales in 2025," which Musk had introduced in the third quarter call.

Finally, it is worth noting that Tesla's CFO warned during the Earnings Reports conference call that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration in the USA would affect the company's profits, and Musk stated that they would observe whether Trump's repeal of Biden's electric vehicle tax credit policy would have "some degree of impact" on Tesla, but also emphasized that competitors would face "devastating impacts."

Want to quickly find the key points of the Earnings Reports? mooers can do so throughMarket > USA > Earnings > Earnings Express.Earnings Express helps you capture everything in one go!

Editor/lambor

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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