Tesla's $30K EV Risks Being A 'Nothing Burger,' Says Gary Black—Warns Of Cannibalization Without A New Compact Design
Tesla's $30K EV Risks Being A 'Nothing Burger,' Says Gary Black—Warns Of Cannibalization Without A New Compact Design
Tesla Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) planned $30,000 electric vehicle could disappoint investors if it fails to introduce a new compact form factor, according to prominent Tesla bull Gary Black, managing partner of The Future Fund LLC.
特斯拉公司(納斯達克:TSLA)計劃推出的$30,000電動車如果未能推出新的緊湊型車型,可能會讓投資者失望,著名特斯拉支持者、未來基金有限公司的管理合夥人加里·布萊克(Gary Black)表示。
What Happened: Black warned on social media platform X that simply releasing a scaled-down version of existing Models 3 or Y could lead to significant cannibalization of Tesla's current lineup. This could prompt Wall Street analysts to lower their 2025 delivery growth estimates, currently projected at 16% year-over-year.
發生了什麼:布萊克在社交媒體平台X上警告說,僅僅發佈現有Model 3或Y的縮小版可能會導致特斯拉當前車型的顯著蠶食。這可能會促使華爾街分析師下調他們對2025年交付增長的預估,目前預計爲同比增長16%。
"A Tesla's new $30-$35K car may be a nothing burger if Tesla doesn't introduce a new form factor to extend TSLA's franchise into the compact category," Black wrote.
布萊克寫道:"如果特斯拉不推出新的車型以擴展TSLA的市場份額進入緊湊型類別,那麼特斯拉的新$30-$3.5萬汽車可能沒有任何意義。"
The caution comes ahead of Tesla's fourth-quarter earnings report due Wednesday, where investors eagerly await details about the company's new affordable EV expected to be unveiled in the first half of 2025.
這一警告正值特斯拉第四季度業績報告即將在週三發佈,投資者熱切期待公司關於預計在2025年上半年發佈的新廉價電動車的詳細信息。
"Much depends on whether the new $30K-$35K Tesla vehicle extends Tesla's TAM to the compact category, which represents 15% of global volume," Black wrote, highlighting the significance of targeting a new market segment rather than just offering cheaper variants of existing models.
布萊克寫道:"這在很大程度上取決於新的$3萬-$3.5萬特斯拉車型是否能將特斯拉的總體可尋址市場(TAM)擴展到緊湊型類別,而該類別代表了全球成交量的15%。",他強調了目標新市場細分的重要性,而不僅僅是提供現有車型的更便宜變種。
Tesla faces mounting pressure after recording its first annual delivery decline in 2024, with 1.79 million vehicles delivered compared to 1.81 million in 2023. Morgan Stanley analysts expect 2025 delivery growth between 10% and 20%, below Tesla CEO Elon Musk's guidance of 20-30%.
特斯拉在2024年錄得首次年度交付下降後面臨越來越大的壓力,交付量爲179萬台,而2023年爲181萬台。摩根士丹利的分析師預計2025年的交付增長在10%到20%之間,低於特斯拉CEO埃隆·馬斯克指導的20%到30%。
The earnings call may also address crucial topics including the Model Y refresh ramp-up, progress in Full Self-Driving capability, and potential impacts of changes to federal EV tax credits. Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney maintains a neutral rating with a $345 price target, emphasizing the importance of production speed for the refreshed Model Y.
業績發佈會可能還會涉及關鍵話題,包括Model Y的更新進展、全自動駕駛能力的進展以及聯邦電動車稅收抵免變化的潛在影響。高盛分析師馬克·德萊尼維持中立評級,目標價爲345美元,強調生產速度對於更新後的Model Y的重要性。
Bank of America recently downgraded Tesla to Neutral despite raising its price target to $490, suggesting the stock's recent rally has captured much of its long-term potential. The firm values Tesla's future robotaxi segment at potentially $420 billion in the U.S. market alone.
美國銀行最近將特斯拉評級下調至中立,儘管將其目標價上調至490美元,表示該股近期的反彈已捕捉了其長期潛力的大部分。這家公司認爲特斯拉未來的機器人出租車業務在美國市場的價值可能達到4200億。
Price Action: Tesla's closed at $398.10 on Tuesday, gaining 0.24% for the day. In after-hours trading, the stock dipped 0.36%. Over the past year, Tesla's stock has surged 108.51%, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
價格走勢:特斯拉週二收於398.10美元,漲幅爲0.24%。在盤後交易中,股票下跌0.36%。根據Benzinga Pro的數據,過去一年特斯拉的股價飆升了108.51%。
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