Looking Beyond CIMB's 4Q Results To Next Strategic Plan
Looking Beyond CIMB's 4Q Results To Next Strategic Plan
For CIMB's upcoming 4Q24 results RHB Research said the consensus for 2024F PATMI imply 4Q24 net profit could ease by high single-digits QoQ while YoY PATMI could rise by mid-single digits. The house expects a second interim DPS of 20 sen (4Q23: 18.5 sen interim) – a decent 2.5% yield, but CIMB has ruled out another special DPS for the quarter (7 sen special DPS announced in both Feb and Aug 2024).
關於CIMB即將發佈的2024年第四季度業績,RHB研究表示,2024財年的PATMI共識預計第四季度凈利潤可能環比下降高個位數,而同比PATMI可能上升中個位數。該行預計將發佈第二次中期股息爲20仙(2023年第四季度:18.5仙中期)——收益率不錯,爲2.5%,但CIMB已排除本季度再次發佈特別股息(2024年2月和8月均宣佈7仙的特別股息)。
QoQ, RHB expects group NIM to be lower due to a combination of policy rate cuts (Indonesia and Thailand), tight liquidity conditions, and competition from government issuances (Indonesia) and seasonal deposit competition (Malaysia). Locally, management said new deposit campaign rates for both retail and wholesale moved up by 5-10bps during the quarter. Singapore NIM, however, was stable QoQ. The good news was that sequential NIM compression in 4Q24 was not as severe as the 10bps QoQ drop in 4Q23.
環比方面,RHB預計集團淨利差將因政策利率下調(印尼和泰國)、流動性緊張以及來自政府債券發行(印尼)和季節性存款競爭(馬來西亞)的競爭而下降。管理層表示,本季度零售和批發的新存款活動利率均上升5-10個點子。然而,新加坡的淨利差環比保持穩定。好消息是,2024年第四季度的淨利差壓縮未如2023年第四季度的10個點子環比下降那麼嚴重。
Also, CIMB has seen some recovery in NIM in January due to timing of the repricing of deposits from policy rate cuts and deposit campaign rates returning to pre-4Q levels. The banking group also highlighted some lumpy wholesale loan drawdowns in Dec 2024 – positive for loan growth, but impacts NIM calculations.
此外,由於政策利率下調和存款活動利率回歸至第四季度之前的水平,CIMB在1月的淨利差有所恢復。該銀行集團還強調,在2024年12月出現了一些批量的批發貸款提取——這對貸款增長是有利的,但會影響淨利差的計算。
...and moderation in non-II, as – not surprisingly – trading and FX income softened from elevated levels in 3Q24 (+12% QoQ, +27% YoY). Underlying fee income was resilient, with both wholesale and retail fees holding up, but management guided that net fee income would be impacted by card fee expenses for both Malaysia and Indonesia
…以及非利息收入的溫和調整,不出所料,交易和外匯收入從2024年第三季度的高位下滑(環比+12%,同比+27%)。基礎手續費收入表現穩健,批發和零售手續費均保持不變,但管理層表示,淨手續費收入將受到馬來西亞和印尼卡費支出的影響。
CIMB made minor provisions for its consumer book in Indonesia while, in Malaysia, some earlier uptick from the auto portfolio has started to stabilise. On the whole, group asset quality remains intact, and management has not seen any notable signs of stress. CIMB highlighted that its consumer portfolio in Thailand appears to be improving, giving management some optimism that the worst could be past.
CIMB在印尼的消費貸款組合做了小幅撥備,而在馬來西亞,早期的汽車組合略有回穩。總體而言,集團資產質量仍然完好,管理層並未看到顯著的壓力跡象。CIMB強調,其在泰國的消費貸款組合似乎有所改善,這讓管理層對未來的前景充滿了樂觀。
Data centre-related loans approved stood at MYR1.5bn, a small portion of which has been drawn down, while the pipeline has been stable. CIMB was comfortable that, despite the recent uncertainties surrounding the prospects for data centres, their borrowers are likely to proceed with their respective plans, which should be supportive of loan growth ahead. Lastly, the group's new strategic plan is set to be unveiled on 5 Mar. RHB said a higher ROE target could be a near-term re-rating catalyst and supportive of further multiples expansion. The house offers no changes to TP and earnings.
與數據中心相關的批准貸款爲15億馬來西亞令吉,其中一小部分已被提取,而貸款管道仍然穩定。儘管近期有關數據中心前景的不確定性,CIMB對此表示擔憂,但他們的借款人很可能會按計劃推進各自的計劃,這將有助於未來的貸款增長。最後,該集團的新戰略計劃定於3月5日公佈。RHB表示,更高的ROE目標可能成爲短期內的重新評級催化劑,並支持進一步的倍數擴展。該行沒有對目標價和盈利做出任何變化。
Share this:
分享這一內容:
- X
- 臉書
- X
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
評論(0)
請選擇舉報原因