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中国船舶(600150):归母净利润同比增长12%~35% 周期上行订单兑现

China Shipbuilding (600150): Net profit to mother increased 12% to 35% year-on-year; cyclical upward order fulfillment

Soochow ·  Jan 27

The benefit cycle is rising, and leading shipbuilding companies are facing an inflection point in performance

The company released its 2024 performance forecast: It is expected to achieve net profit of 3.3-4 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 12%-35% over the previous year, after deducting non-attributable net profit of 2.7-3.4 billion yuan, and reverse the year-on-year loss (-0.3 billion yuan for the same period in 2023).

In 2024, Q4 achieved net profit due to mother of 1-1.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 160%-337%, after deducting non-return net profit of 0.8-1.5 billion yuan, an increase of 452%-962% year-on-year. The company's performance has increased, mainly benefiting from:

(1) Benefiting from the upward shipbuilding cycle, the number of civilian ships delivered in 2024 increased rapidly, and the upward shipbuilding cycle was full of orders and the continuous optimization of the structure. (2) Early burdens were gradually eliminated and lean management progressed.

The restructuring plan has been approved, and it is expected that East China will be injected in the future

On January 7, 2025, the company announced that China Shipbuilding's overall plan to absorb and merge China Heavy Industries was approved by the State Council's State-owned Assets Administration Commission and other competent authorities; on January 25, the company issued an announcement: (1) the restructuring plan was reviewed and approved by the boards of directors of both parties; (2) issued the “China Shipbuilding Group Co., Ltd. Letter of Commitment to Avoiding Competition in the Industry”, promising to divest the assets of Pudong China within three years after the announcement, so that they can meet the conditions for injecting the listed company into the listed company, and proposed to the board of directors that continued after the restructuring to inject East Shanghai and China into the listing platform. Hudong Zhonghua is the core shipbuilding asset of China Shipbuilding Group, mainly engaged in medium and large container ships and LNG carriers. According to Clarkson, as of January 25, 2025, the company had orders of about 7.38 millionCGT. The upward absorption and merger of China Heavy Industries in the corporate cycle is conducive to reducing competition in the industry, leveraging collaboration, and improving supply chain efficiency. If East China is injected in the future, it will further enhance the performance and overall competitiveness of the listed platform.

The gap between supply and demand is difficult to overcome in the short to medium term, and the boom in the new shipbuilding market is expected to continue in 2024, with new orders and ship prices remaining high: According to Clarkson, in 2024, global shipyards signed a total of 0.17 billion DWT orders, which is at an all-time high. As of December 28, 2024, the Clarkson New Shipbuilding Index rose 6% from the beginning of 2024, up 1.3% from the historical peak in 2008. We believe that the gap between supply and demand in the shipbuilding industry will be difficult to overcome in the short to medium term: the global shipbuilding industry began to enter the production capacity clearance stage in 2011. In 2024, shipyard production capacity was only about 0.05 billion CGT, down 26% from the high production capacity in 2010, and the number of active shipyards worldwide dropped 56%. Currently, shipbuilding production capacity is gradually being restored, but compared to the previous cycle, it is difficult for regions other than China to restart and expand production capacity on a large scale, and the supply side is clearly rigid. On the demand side, the global fleet size in 2024 was about 1 billion CGT, an increase of 58% over 2010. The global average age of ships continues to rise, and inventory updates will support a steady increase in demand.

Profit forecast and investment rating: The median value of the company's forecast is 3.7 billion yuan. Due to prudential considerations, we adjusted the company's net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 37 (original value 39) /79 (maintenance) /108 (maintenance) billion yuan. The current market value corresponds to PE of 41/19/14 times, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical risks, crude oil price fluctuations, etc.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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