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春风动力(603129):中大排摩托市占率领先 全地形车高端化提速

Chunfeng Power (603129): Chinese and large motorcycles lead the market share and accelerate high-end all-terrain vehicles

Shenhua Securities ·  Jan 25

Incident: The company announced a pre-increase in performance for 2024. The company expects net profit to be 1.42 billion yuan to 1.56 billion yuan in 2024, +40.9% to +54.8% year over year, and estimated deducted non-net profit of 1.39 billion yuan to 1.53 billion yuan, +43.4% to +57.4% year over year.

Reviews:

The 2024 results achieved a high increase. The company expects net profit to be 1.42 billion yuan to 1.56 billion yuan in 2024, +40.9% to +54.8% year over year, and estimated deducted non-net profit of 1.39 billion yuan to 1.53 billion yuan, +43.4% to +57.4% year over year. According to our estimates, the company is expected to achieve net profit of 0.34 billion yuan to 0.48 billion yuan in 24Q4, +64.6% to +132.5% year-on-year; net profit without return to mother of 0.34 billion yuan to 0.51 billion yuan, or +68.5% to +135.5% year-on-year. The company achieved high growth in the fourth quarter and full year, mainly due to the company's steady promotion of global strategic deployment, active development of new markets, continuous expansion of product market share, and further improvements in economies of scale.

The penetration of medium and large motorcycles accelerated, and Chunfeng Power took the lead in the market. According to data from the China Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce, the entire industry completed production and sales of 16.565 million fuel motorcycles in 2024, up 13.9% and 13.0% year on year. Among them, high-displacement recreational motorcycles (250cc or more, excluding 250cc) produced and sold 0.774 million vehicles and 757,000 units, up 49.7% and 43.0% year on year.

According to data from the China Automobile Data Center, Chunfeng Power achieved sales of 0.083 million units in 2024 > 250cc two-wheel fuel vehicles. In the 200cc or more straddle and scooter markets, Chunfeng Power ranked first with 0.114 million vehicles licensed.

The pace of all-terrain vehicles going out to sea is accelerating. As of September 2024, Chunfeng Power has covered more than 100 countries and regions around the world and has more than 4,000 dealer outlets; in October 2024, Chunfeng Power ushered in the launch of its 1 million all-terrain vehicles. Overseas, Chunfeng Power has ranked first in the market share of all-terrain vehicles in major European markets for more than 10 years; its market share in the US is increasing year by year.

In the first half of 2024, the company's all-terrain exports accounted for 71.75% of domestic product exports. In November 2024, the ultimate all-terrain flagship ZFORCE Z10 and the all-terrain concept vehicle CFORCE VISION GEN4 were unveiled at the EICMA exhibition. We are optimistic that the further expansion of the company's all-terrain vehicle matrix will bring positive overseas demand.

Profit forecast: The market share of the company's medium and large motorcycles is rising steadily, and overseas supply and demand for all-terrain vehicles are strong. We are optimistic about the opportunities brought by the company's exports and high-end two-wheel drive to soar in volume and price. We estimate that the company's net profit for 2024-2026 will be 1.6 billion yuan, 1.9 billion yuan, and 2.2 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 10.3, 12.5, and 14.6 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE 19 times, 16 times, and 13 times, respectively.

Risk factors: Fluctuating raw material prices, sales volume falling short of expectations for new energy customers, and falling short of expectations in new business development.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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