On the eve of Trump's inauguration, the Nasdaq 100 rose 2%, the semiconductor index surged nearly 3%, NVIDIA increased by over 3%, Tesla at one point rose over 6%, ultimately closing up over 3%, China Concept Stocks rose more than 4% before closing up over 3%, and JD.com rose over 10%.
For the week, the Dow Jones rose a cumulative 3.7%, the S&P rose nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq increased by 2.5%, with the China Concept rising about 6%. Bitcoin approached 0.106 million dollars, achieving the largest weekly gain since the election, while the dollar stopped a six-week streak of increases, and U.S. Treasury yields recorded the largest weekly decline since the end of November.
UK and German stocks hit new highs, the yen saw its largest weekly increase in over a month, oil prices fell on Friday but have risen for four consecutive weeks, and gold has risen for three weeks, hovering at five-week highs.
U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization for December, along with December housing starts data, all exceeded expectations. On Friday, global stock markets generally rose, with the China Concept Index outperforming the U.S. market, closing up 3.18%. As Trump's inauguration date approaches, the market continues to focus on his policy directions; U.S. stocks rose and the dollar strengthened. Trump may issue an executive order on cryptocurrencies, causing Bitcoin to soar. Investors are concerned that Trump’s return to the White House next Monday may strengthen sanctions against Russia, limiting oil price declines, with crude oil recording four consecutive weeks of increase.
The UK economy was hit again, with December retail sales unexpectedly declining, leading to increased bets on interest rate cuts, with traders expecting a cut of more than 70 basis points in 2025. UK stocks reached new highs, UK bonds rallied across the board for three consecutive days, marking the longest winning streak since December 2, and the 10-year yield is set to see the largest weekly decline since August 2024, with the British Pound's losses widening.
Additionally, traders have raised their bets on European Central Bank rate cuts, expecting a 100 basis point drop this year. However, hawkish committee member and German central bank president indicated that there should be no rush to cut rates.
Reports indicate that a majority of members of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy committee will support a rate increase in January, while some members remain cautious and hope to finalize plans after Trump's inauguration. The market believes there is an 80% chance of a rate hike next week, with the yen rising nearly 1% weekly, marking its best performance in over a month, briefly breaking above 155 to hit a monthly high on Friday.

This week, driven by two favorable inflation data points and strong bank performance, all three major U.S. stock indices rose, marking the first gaining week of 2025. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 Index gained 3.7% and 2.9% respectively this week, achieving the largest single-week increase since the U.S. presidential election in November last year. The Nasdaq rose 2.5% this week, its best weekly performance since early December last year. Technology stocks led the rally, with NVIDIA and Tesla both closing up over 3% on Friday, and Tesla rising over 8% for the week while Apple fell about 3%. Wall Street's major banks kicked off the U.S. earnings season, with the banking ETF rising over 8% this week, and Goldman Sachs and Citigroup appreciating around 12%.
All three major U.S. stock indices rose. The S&P 500 Index closed up 59.32 points, a 1.00% increase, at 5996.66 points, with a cumulative rise of 2.91% this week. The Dow Jones, closely related to the economic cycle, rose 334.70 points, a 0.78% increase, at 43487.83 points, cumulatively rising 3.69% this week. The technology-heavy Nasdaq rose 291.91 points, a 1.51% increase, at 19630.20 points, with a cumulative rise of 2.45% this week. The Nasdaq 100 was up 1.66%, for a cumulative increase of 2.85% this week. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 tech constituents, rose 1.86%, with a cumulative rise of 2.43% this week. The Russell 2000 small-cap index, more sensitive to economic cycles, rose 0.40% to 2275.88 points, with a cumulative rise of 3.96% this week. The VIX volatility index fell 3.86% to 15.96, with a cumulative drop of 18.32% this week.

Most industry ETFs in the USA closed higher. The Semiconductor ETF rose by 2.36%, the Technology Industry ETF increased by 1.57%, and the Regional Banks ETF, Global Technology Stocks Index ETF, Consumer Discretionary ETF, WP CSI Banks ETF, and Internet Plus-Related stocks Index ETF all rose by at least 1.1%. However, the Biotechnology Index ETF closed down by 0.23%, and the Medical Industry ETF fell by 0.67%.
This week, the Hwabao WP CSI Banks ETF rebounded by 8.16%, the Industry Banks ETF rebounded by 8.05%, and the Energy Industry ETF rose by 6.3%—previously, in the three weeks, there were rebounds of 1.34%, 3.44%, and 1.05% respectively. The Penghua Guozheng Semiconductor Chip ETF rose by 4.48%, the GF CSI All-Share Index Consumer Discretionary ETF rebounded by 3.8%, the Internet Plus-Related Stocks Index ETF rebounded by 2.66%, the Technology Industry ETF rebounded by 2.33%, the Global Technology Stocks Index ETF rebounded by 1.71%, and the Medical Industry ETF rose by 0.39%; the Biotechnology Index ETF fell by 0.06%.

In terms of research strategy, Bank of America stated that the Trump trade would prevent a crash in U.S. stocks, but also would not likely trigger a major rally. This is due to his protectionist agenda and corporate tax reduction plan, which may safeguard U.S. stocks from significant declines, but the high concentration, valuation, and investor holding risks associated with mega-cap tech stocks make substantial upward movement difficult for U.S. stocks.
The "Seven Sisters of Technology" saw widespread gains. NVIDIA rose by 3.12%, Tesla by 3.06%, Amazon by 2.39%, Google A by 1.6%, Microsoft by 1.02%, Apple by 0.75%, and Meta by 0.24%. This week, Tesla gained a total of 8.05%, after falling 4.92% and 3.83% in the previous two weeks. Amazon rose by 3.2%. Microsoft rebounded by 2.38%, having previously fallen 2.39%, 1.39%, 1.67%, and 1.04% in the last four weeks. Google A rose by 2.06%, NVIDIA by 1.35%, and Meta fell by 0.50%. Apple dropped by 2.9%, following declines of 4.79% and 2.68% in the previous two weeks.
In terms of news, the U.S. antitrust regulatory agency FTC stated that Microsoft's significant investment in OpenAI raises antitrust concerns. Morgan Stanley rated Tesla as "Shareholding," highly recognizing its development prospects in the embodied AI field. Google refused to comply with the new fact-checking laws established by the EU, stating that fact-checking is unsuitable or unhelpful for its services, while U.S. technology companies like X and Meta have shown resistance to fact-checking.
Chip stocks rose overall. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose by 2.84%, with a total increase of 5.4% this week. The double long ETF for NVIDIA rose by 6.16%. NXP Semiconductor fell by 1.51%, Wolfspeed fell by 7.1%, Taiwan Semiconductor ADR fell by 1.53%, Micron Technology rose by 3.07%, Qualcomm rose by 1.94%, Arm Holdings rose by 1.18%, KLA Corp rose by 1.37%, AMD rose by 2.55%, ON Semiconductor rose by 2.09%, Broadcom rose by 3.5%, and Intel rose by 9.25%, as reports suggest the company could be an acquisition target. ASML ADR rose by 0.81%.
AI concept stocks showed mixed results. Applovin rose by 3.11%, Salesforce rose by 1.42%, BullFrog AI rose by 0.47%, Palantir rose by 3.65%, Oracle rose by 0.93%, Serve Robotics fell by 3.28%, BigBear.ai fell by 5.54%, and CrowdStrike fell by 1.76%. Super Micro Computer fell by 0.96%, SoundHound AI, which is held by NVIDIA, fell by 2.36%, C3.ai fell by 0.93%, and Dell Technologies fell by 0.43%.
China Concept Stocks outperformed the U.S. stock market. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 3.18%, with a total increase of 6.19% this week. In ETFs, the FTSE China 3x Long ETF (YINN) rose by 5.6%, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose by 2.6%, the China Concept Internet Index ETF (KWEB) rose by 3.1%, while the FTSE China 3x Short ETF (YANG) fell by 5.49%. The FTSE A50 index futures closed the overnight session up by 0.72%, at 12,973.000 points.
Among popular China Concept Stocks, JD.com rose by 10.11%, Tiger Securities rose by 8.49%, PDD Holdings rose by 5.3%, NIO rose by 4.81%, Alibaba rose by 3.26%, Xiaomi Group ADR rose by 3.24%, Bilibili rose by 2.89%, New Oriental rose by 2.77%, Zhihu rose by 2.76%, Baidu rose by 2.71%, Li Auto rose by 2.31%, XPeng rose by 1.87%, and ZEEKR remained stable.
Bitcoin futures prices surged, and crypto concept stocks generally rose. The trading activity of small-cap cryptocurrencies increased, benefiting trading platforms, where the crypto digital currency trading platform Coinbase rose by 4.92% and Robinhood rose by 4.49%. BTC Digital rose by 73.53%, the "Bitcoin large holder" MSTR rose by 8.04%, Riot Platforms rose by 0.75%, while Bitdeer Technologies fell by 2.97% and Canaan rose by 5.79%.
Among other key stocks: (1) Schlumberger rose by 6.06%, with Q4 revenue, EPS, and EBITDA all exceeding market expectations. (2) The next round of U.S. Medicare drug price negotiations includes Novo-Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy, with Novo-Nordisk falling by 5.27%, and LVMH surpassing Novo-Nordisk to become Europe's largest listed company again. (3) Qorvo surged over 14%, as activist investor Starboard Value disclosed a 7.7% stake and sought changes to enhance its stock price.
周五欧股普涨,泛欧Stoxx 600指数收涨0.68%,德国股指创历史新高,成分股多为国际公司的英国富时100指数收涨1.35%,创历史收盘新高,而更依赖国内需求的富时250指数周五仅涨0.25%。几乎所有行业板块上涨。矿业股涨2%领涨,报道称嘉能可曾与力拓进行洽谈,探讨该行业史上最大规模的合并可能,而诺和诺德周五跌4.3%、本周累跌8.97%拖累大盘:
泛欧STOXX 600指数收涨0.69%,报523.62点,最近三个交易日累涨3.02%,本周累涨2.37%。欧元区STOXX 50指数收涨0.81%,本周累涨2.37%。富时泛欧绩优300指数收涨0.65%,本周累涨2.31%。
德国DAX 30指数收涨1.20%,连续三个交易日创收盘历史新高,本周累涨3.41%。法国CAC 40指数收涨0.98%,本周累涨3.75%。荷兰AEX指数收涨0.72%,本周累涨2.69%。意大利富时MIB指数收涨1.25%,本周累涨3.36%。英国富时100指数收涨1.35%创新高,本周累涨3.11%。西班牙IBEX 35指数收涨0.64%,本周累涨1.67%。


特朗普就职典礼前夕,周五美债收益率变化不大。10年期美债收益率在特朗普就职典礼前一周跌超13个基点,先后受累于PPI、CPI、零售销售、鲍曼畅想FOMC降息前景。法意西希主权债收益率本周震荡下行,普遍跌超10个基点:
美债:美国10年期基准国债收益率尾盘涨1.45个基点,刷新日高至4.6270%,本周累跌13.22个基点。两年期美债收益率涨5.26个基点,刷新日高至4.2826%,本周累跌9.66个基点。
野村称,10年期美国国债收益率今年可能升至6%,相对于通胀和财政收支,该收益率仍然较低。
欧债:欧市尾盘,德国10年期国债收益率跌1.3个基点,报2.547%。两年期德债收益率跌2.9个基点。英国10年期国债收益率跌5.1个基点。两年期英债收益率跌8.3个基点。30年期英债收益率跌5.7个基点,50年期英债收益率跌4.0个基点。法国10年期国债收益率跌2.3个基点,本周累跌11.6个基点。意大利10年期国债收益率跌0.8个基点,本周累跌12.2个基点。

在美国工业生产数据强劲和美债收益率上升的支撑下,美元指数周五涨超0.4%,但全周累跌,结束六周连涨势头。日本央行加息预期升温,日元本周涨0.9%一度涨穿155,特朗普宣誓就职前一周,比特币期货“稳扎稳打”累计上涨10%且逼近最高:
USD: ICE Dollar Index rose 0.42% to 109.417 points, fluctuating upward throughout the day, with an overall weekly decline of 0.22%. Bloomberg Dollar Index rose 0.26% to 1316.14 points, with a weekly decline of 0.23%, and the overall trading range was 1323.16-1306.74 points.

Non-USD currencies: The euro fell 0.30% against the dollar at 1.0270, with a weekly increase of 0.25%; the British pound fell 0.59% against the dollar at 1.2167, with a weekly decline of 0.33%; the dollar rose 0.46% against the Swiss franc at 0.9150, with a weekly decline of 0.15%; among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar fell 0.33% against the dollar, with a weekly increase of 0.72%, the New Zealand dollar fell 0.41% against the dollar, with a weekly increase of 0.47%, and the dollar rose 0.63% against the Canadian dollar, with a weekly increase of 0.40%.
Yen: The yen fell 0.73% against the dollar at 156.30 yen, with a weekly increase of 0.90%.
Offshore RMB: Offshore RMB (CNH) rose 54 points against the dollar at 7.3415 yuan at the end of trading, with an overall trading range of 7.3578-7.3331 yuan during the day.
Cryptocurrencies: The largest cryptocurrency Bitcoin was reported at $0.105 million, rising 4.39% compared to Thursday's New York close, reaching $0.107 million at 03:59 Beijing time, with a cumulative increase of 10.41% this week. The second largest Ethereum was reported at $3497.00, rising 4.33% compared to Thursday.
Trump may issue an executive order on cryptocurrency, elevating it to a national priority and giving industry insiders a voice in his government. Investors expect that any announcements from the new government next week could drive Bitcoin prices higher, potentially setting new records. The historical highest price of Bitcoin was $108327.01, created on December 17. So far in 2025, Bitcoin has risen 9%.

According to CGTN, the Israeli security cabinet voted to pass the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, alleviating the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East and suppressing the rise in oil prices. On Friday, oil prices fell slightly, but still recorded a fourth consecutive week of increases, due to concerns about supply stemming from U.S. sanctions on Russian energy supporting oil prices. Investors worry that Trump’s return to the White House next Monday may strengthen sanctions against Russia. The Treasury Secretary nominated by Trump stated that he is prepared to impose stricter sanctions on Russian oil. Meanwhile, a reduction in U.S. inflation and positive economic growth in China have boosted the outlook for oil demand.
U.S. oil: WTI February crude oil futures closed down $0.80, a decline of 1%, at $77.88 per barrel, with a total increase of 1.7% for the week. During Asia's trading session, U.S. oil refreshed its daily high, rising nearly 1% to $79.40. In early trading, U.S. stocks dropped nearly 1.2% to below $77.80.
Brent oil: March Brent crude oil futures closed down $0.50, a drop of over 0.61%, at $80.79 per barrel, with a total increase of 1.29% for the week. During Asia's trading session, Brent oil refreshed its daily high, rising nearly 0.8% to $81.90. In early trading, U.S. stocks fell by more than 0.9%, approaching $80.50.
Natural Gas: U.S. February natural gas futures closed down 7.28%, at $3.9480 per million British thermal units, with a total decrease of about 1.03% for the week. In the European market's late trading, TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures rose 1.72%, at €47.250 per megawatt hour, with a total increase of 2.86% for the week. ICE UK natural gas futures rose 2.68%, at 119.510 pence per kilocalorie, with an overall increase of 5.78% for the week.

Affected by the strengthening of the USD, gold prices slightly fell on Friday, with New York futures gold down more than 0.4%. However, due to the lower-than-expected core inflation data in the USA, dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials, and uncertainties stemming from Trump's presidency, gold managed to achieve a three-week consecutive rise, while standing above the 2700 USD mark. New York futures gold accumulated a gain of 0.9% this week. On Thursday, spot gold reached a one-month high, only 65.6 USD away from the historical high of 2790.15 USD set last October.
Gold: COMEX Gold Futures fell by 0.42%, reported at 2739.30 USD/ounce, with an accumulation of 0.90% this week. Spot gold at the close fell by 0.46%, reported at 2702.25 USD/ounce, accumulating an increase of 0.46% this week.
Silver: COMEX Silver Futures fell by 2.21%, closing at $31.025 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of 0.91% this week. Spot silver dropped by 1.54% at the end of the day, closing at $30.3378 per ounce, with a cumulative decline of 0.21% this week.
London industrial metals showed mixed results, with London Zinc closing up more than 1.8% on Friday, London Zinc rising over 2.3%. This week, London Aluminum rose over 4.3%, and London Zinc and London Nickel increased by at least about 2.6%. London Copper closed down 40 USD, reported at 9190 USD/ton, with an accumulation increase of nearly 1.08% this week. COMEX Copper Futures fell by 1.99%, reported at 4.3525 USD/pound, with an accumulation increase of 1.13% this week. London Aluminum closed up 48 USD, rising by 1.82%, reported at 2684 USD/ton, with an accumulation increase of over 4.35% this week. London Zinc closed up 68 USD, rising by over 2.36%, reported at 2942 USD/ton, with an accumulation increase of 2.58% this week. London Lead closed down 4 USD, reported at 1967 USD/ton. London Nickel closed up 134 USD, reported at 16097 USD/ton, with an accumulation increase of over 2.80% this week. London Tin closed up 199 USD, reported at 29775 USD/ton. London Cobalt was flat, reported at 24300 USD/ton.
Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that during the week of January 14, speculative bullish sentiment for gold reached a five-week high, while bullish sentiment for Brent crude oil hit an eight-month high, and bullish sentiment for Brent and WTI Crude Oil reached a nine-month high.

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