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发生了什么?中国资产、美股科技股等全线上攻!特朗普2.0时代美股将如何演绎?

What happened? China's Assets, US Tech stocks, and others are all surging online! How will the Trump 2.0 era be interpreted in the US stock market?

Brokerage China ·  Jan 17 23:59

China's Assets great counteroffensive.

Tonight, after the US stock market opened, China Assets collectively surged, as of the time of writing, $NASDAQ Golden Dragon China (.HXC.US)$ surging over 3%, with Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF and 2x Long China Internet Stocks ETF rising over 8%.

On the news front, on the evening of January 17, **** held a phone call with US President-elect **** congratulated Trump on being re-elected as President of the USA, noting that both sides highly value their interactions and hope for a good start to China-US relations in the new US presidential term, wishing to promote greater progress in China-US relations from a new starting point.

It's worth mentioning that this Friday is the last trading day before President-elect Trump returns to the White House, and currently, global market focus has shifted to the soon-to-begin 'Trump 2.0 Era.' Analysts say the focus of the market will be whether Trump will take significant actions on his first day in office.

This marks a broad surge.

On the evening of January 17, Beijing time, after the US stock market opened, China Assets surged across the board, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising over 3%; $Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF (YINN.US)$$Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Index Bull 2x Shares ETF (CWEB.US)$ A surge of over 8%. $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB.US)$ is up over 4%, $Invesco China Technology ETF (CQQQ.US)$ Increased by more than 3%.

Additionally,$FTSE China A50 Index (.FTXIN9.CN)$Futures surged sharply, at one point rising over 1%.

Among popular China Concept Stocks, JD.com rose over 9%, with its latest app version launching a 'gift' feature;$Tencent Music (TME.US)$$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$$Bilibili (BILI.US)$$iQIYI (IQ.US)$increased by more than 5%,$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$Increased by over 4%,$Alibaba (BABA.US)$, Ctrip,$Baidu (BIDU.US)$$Li Auto (LI.US)$$Yum China (YUMC.US)$it rose by over 3%, $KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$$MINISO (MNSO.US)$$Vipshop (VIPS.US)$Wait for the increase of over 2%.

The US stock market also collectively strengthened, with all three major indexes opening higher. $E-mini Dow Futures(MAR5) (YMmain.US)$ Increased by 0.81%, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ Up 1.54%,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Up 0.97%.

US technology stocks rose across the board, $Intel (INTC.US)$ Soaring over 8%, marking the largest increase since November of last year.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$it rose by over 3%, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$rising over 2%,$Amazon (AMZN.US)$$Meta Platforms (META.US)$$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Apple rose over 1%.

The concept of Cryptos has surged significantly,$CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$$MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$rising over 7%, Riot $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$Platforms,$Coinbase (COIN.US)$Rising over 6%.

On the news front, according to media reports citing informed sources, Trump plans to issue an executive order next Monday after taking office, elevating Cryptos to a national priority and granting insiders in the industry a voice in his government. As a result, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$The price has surged over 3%, currently reported at $103,886 per coin.

It should be noted that this year's Martin Luther King Jr. Day (the third Monday in January) coincides with Trump's inauguration day, and the US stock market will be closed next Monday. Therefore, this Friday is the last trading day before Trump returns to the White House.

At this point, the global market focus has shifted to the upcoming 'Trump 2.0 era'.

According to several media reports, given that Trump has boasted to lawmakers about 'preparing over a hundred presidential executive orders', the global market is about to face an unprecedented 'presidential inauguration day shock' next week.

Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee of the French asset management company Carmignac, interprets that the focus will be on whether Trump will take significant actions on his first day in office.

Another analysis stated that the yield on the US ten-year Treasury bond has fallen for the third consecutive day, now below the 4.60% mark. This week's US inflation and retail data have provided the tense market with a breather.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated in a recent speech that the upcoming US CPI data is quite good. If more data like this is received, it may be possible to see the Federal Reserve cut rates in the first half of 2025, and the possibility of a rate cut in March cannot be ruled out. If significant progress is made in the data, there may be three or four rate cuts this year.

Waller also mentioned that there are no indications in the data or projections showing that the job market will significantly weaken in the coming months. Tariffs are not expected to have a major impact on inflation. The labor market is now close to the Federal Reserve's maximum employment goal.

How will the US stock market unfold in the future?

At this point, multiple Wall Street institutions believe that this year could be an excellent opportunity for observers to return - the US stock market may continue to rise, but the pace of growth will not be as fast or linear as in the past two years, and during this process, investors will encounter good opportunities for buying on dips.

Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo & Co, stated that the US stock market is heading into an 'opportunity zone' this year. The bank expects the S&P 500 Index to close between 6,500 and 6,700 points this year, suggesting that the index could rise by about 13% from current levels.

In a recent report, Scott Wren recommended that investors be prepared to take advantage of any market pullbacks by gradually reallocating cash and short-term instruments to stock positions.

At the same time, Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, also stated that the US stock market remains supported by strong fundamentals. The US economy is expected to avoid a recession in 2025, and the strong rise of technology stocks will continue to support the market.

LPL Financial's Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist has a positive outlook on the prospects of the US stock market.

In a recent report, he pointed out that although the S&P 500 Index has recently experienced a "technical adjustment" and there is a possibility of further declines, the strong expectations for corporate earnings growth and the ongoing enthusiasm for AI could help drive the US stock market higher.

Adam Turnquist further stated that the market also expects that elected President Trump will introduce growth-promoting policies, although some of his agenda may drive up inflation and increase the deficit. If the US stock market encounters a deeper correction, it may provide a potential buying opportunity to return to a bull market.

Currently, Wall Street generally expects that the US stock market will continue to rise by 2025, with an average year-end target price of 6,539 points, even though the S&P 500 Index has previously risen over 20% for two consecutive years.

Editor/Soimer

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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