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英伟达与微软官宣入局,量子计算的“Transformer时刻”渐行渐近

NVIDIA and Microsoft officially announce their entry, bringing the "Transformer moment" of quantum computing closer.

Zhitong Finance ·  Jan 17 19:33

NVIDIA officially announced this week that it will host the first "Quantum Day" during the GTC conference from March 17 to 21.

The words of Huang Renxun, the "Leather Jacket Swordsman," who said last week that it might take thirty years to achieve a useful Quantum Computing, caused a collective plunge in the stocks of Quantum Computing concepts in the US stock market. However, this founder and CEO of NVIDIA seems to genuinely be Bullish about the development prospects of Quantum Computing and aims to become one of its leaders. This is also why, less than a week after these remarks, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ this week it was officially announced that it will hold its first "Quantum Day" at the GTC conference from March 17 to 21, where Huang Renxun will discuss the latest technological advancements in Quantum Computing alongside industry leaders.

Almost at the same time, the American technology giants $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ Also supporting Quantum Computing, stated in the official blog that 2025 is the "Year of Quantum Readiness."

The emergence of the Transformer architecture marks a new paradigm shift in the fields of deep learning and AI, directly promoting the birth of generative AI application software such as ChatGPT. It is the Transformer that brought "generative AI" from Google's AI lab to commercial applications. All large AI models of the GPT family, as well as large models like Gemini, Claude, and LIama, are based on the Transformer architecture, making it the "mother of AI large models." Looking towards the future of Quantum Computing, the so-called "Transformer moment" is approaching human society.

The "Transformer moment" in Quantum Computing refers to "controllable quantum computing application systems created based on quantum computing technology with commercial value." This includes but is not limited to ion traps, quantum annealing, quantum simulation, superconducting qubits, as well as quantum entanglement and topological quantum. Currently, human technology cannot achieve precise and stable control over quantum states using universal computing systems, especially facing significant technical bottlenecks in implementing precise and controllable "quantum entanglement."

In recent years, ion trap technology (such as $IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$$Honeywell (HON.US)$quantum solutions), $D-Wave Quantum (QBTS.US)$ Breakthrough progress has been made in the field of Quantum Computing, with IBM striving to integrate quantum bits with binary computing hardware infrastructure, aiming for completion by December 2024. $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ The release of WILLOW has created a significant foundational shift in the field of Quantum Computing, making it possible for quantum computing to transition from pure theoretical concepts in physics to 'controllable and commercially valuable practical quantum computing application systems.'

With the presence of two major technology giants, NVIDIA and Microsoft, alongside the previously announced quantum blueprint.$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Official announcements have come into play, plus $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ with $IBM Corp (IBM.US)$ For many years, deep cultivation in the underlying theory of Quantum Computing and Quantum Hardware systems, coupled with their talent pool and large capital base, along with strong support from various governments in recent years, may accelerate the trajectory of Quantum Computing commercialization.

Trump is set to return to the White House on January 20 to begin his second term, promising to reduce regulations on large corporations and cut taxes, increase oil production, and implement strict immigration policies. These actions suggest stronger economic growth and inflation, which are seen as Bullish factors for the stock market.

Banks, Technology, Defense, and Fossil Fuels sectors may significantly benefit, especially in Technology. Under Trump's leadership, the USA government is likely to focus on accelerating development in cutting-edge technological innovation fields such as AI, Quantum Computing, Nuclear Fusion, and Aviation.

The keywords for the "Transformer moment" in Quantum Computing are controllable and have large-scale commercial value.

Quantum computing systems utilize the principles of quantum mechanics, such as quantum superposition and quantum entanglement, to provide a new computing paradigm that theoretically can vastly exceed the computing capabilities of traditional computers in specific areas. According to a statement from Google on December 9 local time, the Willow quantum chip demonstrated remarkable performance in benchmark tests, capable of completing a standard benchmark calculation in under 5 minutes, while a traditional supercomputer would take 10^25 years to accomplish the same task.

However, it should be noted that, including Google, no company has yet achieved any practically usable level of "quantum computing" with precise control over quantum states that can be commercially scalable, and there is a significant gap to the 'final form' of this quantum mechanical acceleration model. This is why Google CEO Sundar Pichai emphasized in a post that the Willow quantum chip is an "important step towards creating practical quantum computers," indicating that Google is still very far from achieving controllable and commercialized quantum computing.

Currently, human technology cannot achieve precise and stable control over quantum states using a universal computing system, especially there are significant technological bottlenecks in achieving precise and controllable quantum entanglement. Quantum entanglement is one of the key features of quantum computing, allowing for strong correlations between qubits, which is essential for massive parallel computing and solving certain problems. However, current technologies have yet to realize large-scale, long-term stable quantum entanglement.

Even entry-level 'heuristic quantum computing applications'—such as ion traps, quantum annealing, and quantum simulation—are already significantly meaningful for some R&D projects in terms of accelerating computation. However, quantum states still cannot be precisely controlled; in practical operations, the states of qubits are easily affected by external environmental interference, leading to quantum decoherence and quantum errors, necessitating quantum computing companies to go through numerous trials and errors, limited to specific accelerated computations, with actual costs hard to control precisely.

$D-Wave Quantum (QBTS.US)$ with $IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$ The point of Huang Renxun's counterattack is that they have already achieved "practical applications of Quantum Computing"; this has been proven to be true, but the scope of commercialization is extremely narrow.

Currently, quantum computing companies like D-Wave primarily offer quantum computing platforms focused on entry-level heuristic quantum computing applications, and the scope of commercialization remains very limited. Most of them can only address acceleration problems closely related to specific industries and cutting-edge R&D, playing an auxiliary role in large-scale R&D projects such as CSI SWS Health Care index R&D engineering and physics laboratories.

Recently, the stock prices in the USA have risen sharply.$Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US)$with$Quantum Computing (QUBT.US)$Companies like IonQ and D-Wave mentioned above are important players in Quantum Computing, each taking different approaches to accelerate developments based on quantum computing.

Although these companies have made some progress, they have not yet achieved truly precise and controllable quantum applications that possess large-scale commercial value. The inability to control quantum states precisely is currently a major challenge in the quantum field, and their products and services are primarily focused on specific cutting-edge research areas, essentially at the 'heuristic quantum computing application stage,' with a very narrow commercial scope.

Governments and technology giants around the world are joining the fray, and the development of quantum computing is in full swing.

In recent years, major Global technology countries have been continuously increasing their planning and layout in the field of Quantum Computing, with over 30 countries initiating planning and layout in the Quantum Information field, focusing on large-scale quantum computing projects.

An official blog post from IBM at the end of 2023 noted: "We have entered a new era of quantum computing, as the theme of the past few decades was the emergence and establishment of this new technology; now, it is about laying the foundation to make quantum computing a reality and achieve commercialization.

Microsoft recently announced the launch of the "Quantum Readiness Program" to help customers develop a clear and comprehensive quantum strategy. MITRA Azizirad, President and Chief Operating Officer of Microsoft's Strategic Mission and Technology Department, wrote in an official blog post released on Wednesday: "Quantum readiness is not only a business necessity but also a global mission. We are at the beginning of a reliable quantum computing era. We are about to see quantum computers solve very meaningful problems and capture new business value."

In addition to Google, Microsoft, and NVIDIA actively laying out their Quantum Computing strategies, another American technology giant, Amazon, is also ramping up its efforts. Recently, Amazon AWS launched a program called 'Quantum Embark,' aimed at exploring a hybrid architecture of 'integrating quantum computing chips with traditional chips' to help clients prepare for the quantum computing era.

Quantum Computing will use its entropy quantum optimizer Dirac-3 to support the advanced imaging and data processing needs of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, highlighting the deep integration of heuristic applications with aerospace-specific cutting-edge fields, driving efficiency transformations in certain areas through the acceleration effects powered by Quantum Computing.

The Remote Ion-Ion Entanglement demonstrated by IonQ recently is an important breakthrough in the field of Quantum Computing, as it establishes a crucial 'quantum entanglement relationship' between two ions that are physically separated through quantum communication technology. This entanglement is a key step in achieving quantum entanglement, especially in the process of constructing quantum communication networks and interconnecting quantum computing systems, laying a significant foundation for developing scalable network quantum systems.

Recently, IonQ announced a $1 billion plan with the state of Maryland aimed at making Maryland the birthplace of Quantum Computing. IonQ's Chairman and CEO, Peter Chapman, recently declared that AI systems based on native quantum computing acceleration will far exceed classical AI systems, predicting that the company's total revenue could approach $1 billion by 2030. In comparison, IonQ's total revenue has hovered around $10 million in recent quarters.

In a recent study, a research team from ETH Zurich successfully brought six mechanical oscillators collectively into a quantum state. This research marks an important step forward for quantum technology, laying the foundation for building large-scale quantum systems. The research team emphasized that quantum motion is typically limited to individual objects, but in the latest experiment, it spanned the entire oscillator system. This latest research is expected to promote quantum sensing technology, potentially leading to broader application scenarios and significantly upgraded, more controllable, and higher-efficiency levels of quantum computing applications.

With the advent of Google's Willow quantum chip, and technology giants like NVIDIA and Microsoft joining the fray, the current development of Quantum Computing can be said to be pressing the "accelerator button", which means that subsequent catalysts for these Quantum Computing concept stocks may become increasingly intensive. Whether it's heuristic applications or research on precision improvement through quantum entanglement, there is likely to be a series of positive catalysts ahead, which could drive the prices of these Quantum Computing Stocks to continue to surge.

The future market size of quantum computing is incredibly vast. According to the latest forecast report from the well-known research institution MarketsandMarkets, the global quantum computing market size is only expected to be $1.3 billion in 2024 but will likely reach $5.3 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 33% during the forecast period.

According to MarketsandMarkets, the entire Quantum Computing market, including the core Hardware infrastructure driving quantum technology, local and cloud quantum computing deployment, and AI applications powered by quantum computing (such as AI training/inference computing systems integrated with quantum computing), is expected to accelerate its expansion starting in 2024. This includes "heuristic quantum computing applications" deeply embedded in certain R&D-focused Industries, significantly enhancing the R&D efficiency of certain companies, and major breakthroughs in quantum entanglement technology leading to controllable and increasingly precise practical "Quantum Computing systems" approaching small-scale commercialization.

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