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富途早报 | 核心CPI降温“引爆”股债币!美联储官员评:通胀会下行,降息取决于数据;周日关门?特朗普考虑上任后签署行政令暂停TikTok禁令

Futu Daily | Core CPI cooling "ignites" stocks, bonds, and currencies! Federal Reserve officials comment: Inflation will decline, and interest rate cuts depend on the data; shutting down on Sunday? Trump is considering signing an executive order to suspen

Futu News ·  Jan 16 00:10

Hot News

  • CPI reignites expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, U.S. stocks and bonds soar.

Core inflation in the USA cools down; December CPI year-on-year increased by 2.9% as expected, with a month-on-month growth of 0.4% slightly above market expectations. However, the core CPI year-on-year growth rate fell to 3.2%, marking the first decline in six months, which is below expectations and the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, also below expectations and the previous value. After the data was released, traders anticipated that the Federal Reserve's first rate cut would be brought forward from September to July, and the total reduction for the year was adjusted from 28 basis points back up to 40 basis points, essentially returning to levels prior to the non-farm employment report.

  • Federal Reserve's "third in command": inflation will continue to decline, the outlook is very uncertain, rate cuts depend on data.

John Williams, the New York Federal Reserve President and one of the three key figures at the Federal Reserve, who has permanent voting rights on the monetary policy committee FOMC, stated that inflation remains on a downward trajectory and will continue to cool. He expects inflation to gradually fall towards the 2% target over the "next few years". While acknowledging that inflation is likely to continue cooling down, Williams reiterated that future decisions on interest rate cuts would depend on data. He indicated that future monetary policy actions will be driven by economic data, as the economic environment the Fed faces in the future is very uncertain, primarily due to potential policy changes from the Trump administration.

  • Federal Reserve Beige Book: The economy shows slight to moderate growth across the USA, with most regions experiencing moderate price increases.

During the coverage period of this Beige Book, overall employment in the USA increased, with half of the 12 regional Federal Reserves reporting slight increases in hiring, while the other six regions reported no change. Wage growth accelerated in most regions. The Beige Book mentioned that contacts in several service industries, particularly in the Medical Care industry, continue to see job growth. However, employment in manufacturing remained stable.

Regarding inflation, prices increased moderately overall. Businesses expect prices to continue rising this year, with some warning that new tariffs may drive prices up further. The Beige Book noted that the vast majority of regions reported moderate increases in selling prices, although some areas experienced flat or decreasing prices, particularly in the retail and manufacturing sectors. The spread of Bird Flu has led to a reduction in poultry and egg supplies, driving up food prices.

  • Trump is considering signing an executive order to suspend the TikTok ban after taking office.

According to CCTV, on January 15 local time, the President-elect of the USA, Trump, is considering issuing an executive order after taking office to suspend the sale of TikTok or to ban it for 60 to 90 days. According to two informed sources, Trump may sign an executive order that would lift the Biden administration's nationwide ban on the app imposed on the 19th. Trump has stated that he has a wide following on this platform, with more than 14 million fans. He hopes to fulfill his previous campaign promises.

Review of the U.S. stock market.

  • The market welcomed a "shot in the arm", with all three major indices rising over 1.5%.

On Wednesday ET, the core CPI unexpectedly slowed after remaining at 3.3% for several months, boosting market sentiment significantly. Meanwhile, large banks such as JPMorgan have also set a strong tone for the Q4 earnings season.

At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.65%, reporting at 43,221.55 points; the S&P 500 Index increased by 1.83%, reporting at 5,949.81 points; the Nasdaq Index rose by 2.45%, reporting at 19,511.23 points.

Large Technology Stocks saw collective gains, with Apple rising 1.97%, Microsoft rising 2.56%, NVIDIA rising 3.40%, Google rising 3.11%, Amazon rising 2.57%, Meta rising 3.85%, Tesla rising 8.04%, and Micron Technology rising 5.99%.

Popular China Concept Stocks generally rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index up 0.97%, Alibaba up 0.93%, JD.com up 1.81%, PDD Holdings up 2.62%, NIO up 0.49%, Xpeng up 3.49%, Li Auto down 2.02%, Bilibili up 1.08%, Baidu up 2.44%, NetEase up 8.22%, Tencent Music up 0.48%, and iQIYI up 0.54%.

Bitcoin once again reached 0.1 million dollars, and crypto Concept Stocks collectively rebounded. Among them, $Hut 8 (HUT.US)$$TeraWulf (WULF.US)$$Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$ rising nearly 10%, $Coinbase (COIN.US)$Increased by more than 7%, $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ Increased by over 5%.

According to Reuters, three informed sources stated that senior officials of the SEC in the USA, who are from the Republican Party, are prepared to begin reforms of the institution's Cryptos policy as early as next week after Trump takes office. Two of the informed sources indicated that Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda are considering measures that include initiating relevant procedures to ultimately establish guidance or rules clarifying the circumstances under which the institution will regard Cryptos as securities, as well as reviewing some ongoing enforcement cases related to Cryptos in court.

Two bullish factors stimulate! Quantum Computing concept stocks collectively explode, $Quantum Computing (QUBT.US)$ Surged 55%, $Quantum (QMCO.US)$ An increase of nearly 50%. $IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$ and rising by over 30%, $SEALSQ Corp (LAES.US)$$D-Wave Quantum (QBTS.US)$$Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US)$ Increased by over 20%.

In the news, Microsoft declared 2025 as the "Quantum Ready" year, driving a surge in Quantum Computing Concept Stocks; Microsoft's "Quantum Ready" plan aims to assist business leaders in addressing challenges, including building hybrid applications and investing in strategic skills; NVIDIA announced it will host its first "Quantum Day" on March 20 to discuss the latest advancements in quantum computing.

The performance of several large Banks generally exceeded market expectations, causing stock prices to rise collectively. $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ Rising nearly 2%. $Citigroup (C.US)$ and $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ All rose by more than 6%, $Goldman Sachs (GS.US)$ Rose by 6%.

On January 15, JPMorgan announced that the net revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 was $42.768 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%; net income was $14.005 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50%.

Goldman Sachs reported a net income of 13.87 billion USD for the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 23%, exceeding market expectations of 12.37 billion USD; investment banking revenue for the fourth quarter was 2.06 billion USD, up 24% year-on-year, estimated at 2 billion USD; stock sales and trading revenue was 3.45 billion USD, a 32% year-on-year increase, estimated at 3.02 billion USD; net interest income was 2.35 billion USD, up 75% year-on-year, estimated at 2.11 billion USD.

On January 15, Citigroup announced that its revenue for the fourth quarter of 2024 was 19.6 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 12%; net income was 2.9 billion USD, compared to a net loss of 1.8 billion USD in the same period last year. For the full year of 2024, Citigroup's revenue was 81.1 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 3%; net income was 12.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 37%.

  • Apple Inc. is reportedly in talks with Barclays and other banks regarding credit card business, and CEO Cook plans to attend Trump's presidential inauguration.

According to Bloomberg, informed sources revealed, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ The company is in negotiations to replace Goldman Sachs as Apple's credit card partner. $Barclays (BCS.US)$ Sources say that the credit card issuer Synchrony Financial is also in discussions with Apple regarding the credit card partnership. Several financial companies are vying to replace Goldman Sachs, which launched a credit card in partnership with Apple in 2019. Sources state that negotiations between Apple and Barclays have been ongoing for several months but could still take months to reach an agreement.

Another report indicates that Apple's CEO Tim Cook is planning to attend Donald Trump's presidential inauguration next week, joining other Silicon Valley leaders heading to Washington.

  • Tesla surged over 8%, and Barclays raised Tesla's Target Price to $325, citing three key themes.

Barclays will $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ The target price has been raised from $270 to $325. The team led by Analyst Dan Levy summarized three key themes for Tesla in 2025, including recovery in sales growth, the expansion of autonomous driving and AI technologies, as well as increased contributions from non-automotive business segments like energy and regulatory credits. While these themes highlight Tesla's growth potential, Barclays warns that Tesla's narrative is increasingly diverging from its fundamentals. Specifically, Tesla's current valuation is at 123 times its 2025 PE ratio, indicating that the 'Musk premium' has reached a historic high. Barclays believes fundamentals will ultimately return to being the focus of Tesla investors.

  • A Dutch court has ruled that the lawsuit against Google for violating Android phone privacy can proceed.

A Dutch court in Amsterdam has approved a Dutch foundation to continue legal action against $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ the invasion of privacy of Android phone users. The court ruled that the foundation and its handling of the case are acceptable, and it can represent Dutch Android users in continuing action. Since initiating a class action lawsuit at the end of 2023, over 100,000 people have signed up to join the lawsuit.

Top 20 by trading volume

Hong Kong market outlook

  • Northbound capital has aggressively purchased TENCENT shares worth over 1.9 billion HKD, increased holdings in Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation by over 1 billion HKD, and sold shares of MEITUAN-W worth nearly 0.5 billion HKD.

On January 15th (Wednesday), southbound funds had a net purchase of Hong Kong stocks worth 9.35 billion HKD today.

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$$SMIC (00981.HK)$$ZIJIN MINING (02899.HK)$Net buying amounted to 1.908 billion HKD, 1.017 billion HKD, and 0.748 billion HKD respectively.

$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$Net selling amounted to 0.471 billion HKD respectively.

  • TENCENT is reported to be establishing a joint venture with the Guillemot family, founders of Ubisoft.

According to the Hong Kong Economic Daily, $TENCENT (00700.HK)$ It is reported that the Guillemot family, founders of the French gaming company Ubisoft known for the "Assassin’s Creed" series, is considering establishing a joint venture that includes some of Ubisoft's assets to enhance the value of the French video game company. Reports cite informed sources stating that Tencent and the Guillemot family are assessing which assets to include in the new entity and its valuation, suggesting that a potential transaction would allow Tencent to hold shares in the joint venture and gain more control over some of Ubisoft's intellectual property while promoting its overseas video game business.

  • Zijin Mining Group responded to being listed on the UFLPA entity list: It will not affect the company and its affiliates' other business activities.

Zijin Mining Group announced that the company noted the U.S. Department of Homeland Security added 37 Chinese enterprises to the so-called "Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA)" entity list on January 14. Among them, the company and Xinjiang Zijin Nonferrous Metals Company, Xinjiang Habahe Asheler Copper Co., Ltd, Xinjiang Jinbao Mining Limited Liability Company, and Xinjiang Zijin Zinc Co., Ltd were listed due to involvement in sourcing materials from Xinjiang or employing ethnic minority workers.

The UFLPA entity list only pertains to the entities listed, excluding their controlling and affiliated companies, and it only restricts the export of products produced by the listed enterprises to the USA. It will not affect the company and its affiliates' other business activities, nor does it prohibit any entity from trading the company’s stocks.

Today's focus

Keywords: USA initial jobless claims, USA December retail sales month-on-month, Federal Reserve officials' speeches, Taiwan Semiconductor's earnings.

On Thursday, in terms of economic data, investors need to pay attention to USA initial jobless claims for the week ending January 11 and USA December retail sales month-on-month.

In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve officials continue to make speeches, including New York Fed President Williams and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee. In addition, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions.

Additionally, according to a report by the Russian Satellite News Agency on January 11, the White House has announced that President Biden will deliver a farewell speech to the nation regarding the end of his presidential term on January 15 at 8 p.m. local time (January 16 at 9 a.m. Beijing time). The announcement stated: "On Wednesday, January 15, at 8 p.m. (9 a.m. Beijing time on January 16), the president will deliver a farewell address to the nation."

Regarding the earnings performance, $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$$UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$$Bank of America (BAC.US)$$Morgan Stanley (MS.US)$ The latest performance will be released before Pre-Market Trading.

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The translation is provided by third-party software.


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