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海光信息(688041):持续加大研发投入 深算三号放量可期

Haiguang Information (688041): Continuing to increase investment in R&D, and the No. 3 release can be expected

Matters:

On January 13, 2025, the company disclosed its 2024 performance forecast. It is expected to achieve operating income of 8.72-9.53 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 45.04%-58.52%; net profit to mother of 1.81-2.01 billion yuan, an increase of 43.29%-59.12%; after deducting non-net profit of 1.71 to 1.88 billion yuan, an increase of 50.48%-65.44% year on year.

Comments:

High performance and strong downstream demand. 2024Q4 is expected to achieve revenue of 2.58-3.39 billion yuan in a single quarter, up 24.8%-64.0% year on year, net profit to mother 0.28-0.48 billion yuan, -21.6%-+33.7% year-on-year, after deducting 0.24-0.41 billion yuan of non-net profit, -22.2% -+34.1% year-on-year. Under the median method, 2024Q4 is expected to achieve revenue of 2.988 billion yuan in a single quarter, up 44.42% year on year; net profit to mother 0.384 billion yuan, up 6.08% year on year; after deducting non-net profit of 0.32 billion yuan, an increase of 5.96% year on year. The company's revenue continued its rapid growth trend in the first three quarters of 2024, mainly due to strong demand in China's intelligent computing market.

Increase R&D and maintain leading performance. The company has always focused on the general computing market. Through intensive R&D investment, the company has continuously achieved technological innovation and product performance improvement, and maintained a leading domestic market position. The annual R&D investment in 2024 is estimated to be 3.23-3.66 billion yuan, an increase of 14.96%-30.26% over the previous year, taking the median value. The annual R&D investment is estimated to be 3.445 billion yuan, an increase of 22.61% over the previous year. The company maintains and consolidates its current market position and competitive advantage by maintaining high investment in R&D to achieve technological innovation, product iteration, performance improvement, etc. Currently, the CPU and DCU developed by the company are in a leading position in the country in terms of performance and ecology.

The lineage is comprehensive, and intelligent calculation can be expected. In terms of the product spectrum, the application field of the company's general-purpose CPU chips continues to expand, and the new DCU product can be expected to have a volume of 3. During the reporting period, the company's CPU products further expanded market application scenarios, expanded market share, supported a wide range of complex application scenarios such as data centers, cloud computing, and high-end computing, and comprehensively laid out industries such as finance, energy, and operators. Furthermore, in the AIGC era, the company's DCU products were more widely recognized by the market due to their high compatibility and rapid iteration of the CUDA platform, supporting AI industry applications such as computing power infrastructure and commercial computing with high computing power and high parallel processing capabilities, further promoting the rapid growth of the company's performance. Currently, Haiguang 5 and Shenzhen Computing 3 are progressing smoothly. As new products are gradually promoted to the market, the company's performance is expected to be further released.

Investment advice: As a domestic high-end processor core manufacturer, Haiguang Information is expected to continue to benefit from the release of AI inference demand. As Shenzhen Computing 3 enters the market, the company's performance is expected to maintain a high level of growth. Based on this, we raised our profit forecast. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is 9.227/13.405/18.829 billion yuan (previous value was 8.429/11.38/14.988 billion yuan), corresponding growth rate of 53.5%/45.3%/40.5%; net profit to mother is 1.931/2.902/4.198 billion yuan (previous value was 1.698/2.351/3.173 billion yuan), and the corresponding growth rate is 52.9%/50.2%/44.7% In terms of valuation, PS is used, taking into account comparable company valuations and the fact that the company is a leading domestic x86 CPU manufacturer, and DCU is in a period of rapid market expansion. The corresponding target price is 173.04 yuan. The corresponding target price is 173.04 yuan, maintaining the “recommended” rating.

Risk warning: R&D iterations fall short of expectations; new product development falls short of expectations; Xinchuang policy falls short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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