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美国对沙特石油的依赖正走向终结

The USA's reliance on Saudi oil is coming to an end.

Golden10 Data ·  Jan 14 06:30

The Energy market will no longer be a constraint on the USA's foreign policy in the Middle East.

The author of this article is Javier Blas, a columnist for Bloomberg covering Energy and Commodity.

Last year, Riyadh closed its oil office in New York, marking the twilight of Saudi Crude Oil Product influence in the USA. According to Bloomberg's calculations based on customs data, due to the shale revolution and the rise of the Canadian oil industry, the amount of Crude Oil Product imported from Saudi Arabia to the USA fell to its lowest level in nearly 40 years in 2024. These flows seem unlikely to recover soon—if they ever do.

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In 2024, the amount of Crude Oil Product imported from Saudi Arabia to the USA reached its lowest level in nearly 40 years.

Generations of American politicians, from Jimmy Carter to George W. Bush, have aspired to free themselves from Saudi oil, and now that goal is within reach. For the soon-to-be president Trump, this means he can reshape foreign policy in the Middle East, something his predecessors could only dream of. The USA has not completely escaped the ups and downs of the oil market, but Saudi Arabia's influence over the USA through its Crude Oil Product reserves has significantly weakened.

Last year, the USA purchased only about 277,000 barrels of Saudi Crude Oil Product per day, nearly an 85% drop from the record 1.73 million barrels per day in 2003. To find lower import volumes, one has to go back to 1985, when imports briefly dipped due to Saudi attempts to boost oil prices through production cuts. Finding the same low import volumes sustained over several years would require going back to the late 1960s.

According to customs documents, as one of the five refineries that regularly import Saudi Crude Oil Product closes in 2025, the flow of oil between Saudi Arabia and the USA will further decrease. Lyondellbasell NV plans to shut its Houston plant in the first quarter of this year, meaning that the USA will only have four stable customers for Saudi oil left.

The remaining refineries include: the Motiva refinery near Houston owned by Saudi Arabia through its national oil company; a refinery operated by Chevron near Los Angeles; and two refineries owned by PBF Energy in New Jersey and Delaware. Motiva alone accounted for 40% of the total Crude Oil Product imported by the USA from Saudi Arabia last year.

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Buyers of Saudi Crude Oil Product.

In contrast, twenty years ago, there were 25 refineries (sometimes even more) that regularly processed Saudi Crude Oil Product.

According to customs data, the three major refining companies in the USA—Marathon Oil, Valero Energy, and Exxon Mobil—have stopped importing Saudi Crude Oil Product over the past two years. According to government trade records reviewed by Bloomberg, Exxon last purchased Saudi Crude Oil Product in November 2023. As Saudi Arabia usually signs long-term contracts for five to seven years or longer to sell its Crude Oil Product, this stagnation indicates that these companies have not renewed long-term contracts, ending decades-long relationships.

Current USA President Bush said in his 2006 State of the Union address that 'the USA is addicted to oil' and set a target to replace 75% of oil imports from Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries by 2025, which few believed to be realistic at the time. At that time, US-Saudi relations were at their peak, with daily imports exceeding 1.5 million barrels.

Bush made many mistakes in his energy policy. For example, he bet on biofuels as the main driver for reducing dependence on foreign oil and promoted the development of electric vehicles early on. In reality, what worked was the USA's shale revolution and the accompanying entrepreneurial culture of 'drilling', along with Canada's production boom, which has become the USA's main foreign oil partner since 2004. Nevertheless, the USA not only achieved Bush's aspirations but exceeded that target: since that congressional speech nearly twenty years ago, the amount of Crude Oil Product imported by the USA from Saudi Arabia has decreased by over 80%.

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Expensive Saudi Oil

Riyadh remains a powerful geopolitical force, still able to influence the prices that American drivers pay at gas stations by increasing or decreasing production. Because oil is a fungible Commodity traded in the Global market, Saudi actions will continue to resonate in the USA, regardless of how much Crude Oil Product the USA imports from the country.

The reduction of Crude Oil Product flow from the USA to Saudi Arabia is not solely the result of the shale revolution. Saudi Arabia deliberately demands that American refineries pay a high premium for every barrel of oil, setting its oil prices above the USA market. For most of 2023 and 2024, Riyadh set the premium for its flagship export Arab Light Crude Oil at $5 per barrel above the USA sales benchmark, far above historical levels. Riyadh uses its official pricing as a tool to reduce the country's oil inventories by decreasing Inflow into the USA, which are closely monitored by traders. Therefore, the low Saudi-USA flow has become part of OPEC+ production cuts.

But the facts cannot be ignored. One of the most significant geopolitical trends of the past half-century is coming to a close: the USA has finally begun to break its dependency on Saudi Crude Oil Product.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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