In the afternoon trading on the 14th, attention should be focused on the following three points.
The Nikkei average has fallen for four consecutive days, influenced by the drop in high-priced semiconductor stocks.
The dollar-yen exchange rate is stalling, with caution against selling at higher prices.
The top contributor to the decline is Advantest <6857>, followed by Tokyo Electron Ltd. Unsponsored ADR <8035> in second place.
The Nikkei average has fallen for four consecutive days, influenced by the drop in high-priced semiconductor stocks.
The Nikkei average has fallen for four consecutive days. It ended the morning session at 38,469.58 yen, down 720.82 yen (-1.84%) from the previous day, with an estimated volume of 0.9 billion 90 million shares.
The US market on the 13th was mixed. The Dow increased by 358.67 dollars to 42,297.12 dollars, while the Nasdaq finished down 73.53 points at 19,088.10. Selling continued due to retreating expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a decline after the opening. The rise of the energy sector, driven by higher crude oil prices, and the growth of the Health Care sector supported the market, resulting in a turnaround for the Dow. Caution over rising interest rates caused tech stocks to continue to fall, but the Nasdaq reduced its losses toward the end. The Dow expanded its gains and ended positively.
The Tokyo market after the holiday started with selling pressure due to weak US stock movements. The Nikkei average, which started below the 39,000 yen level, expanded its losses as semiconductor stocks like Advantest <6857> and Tokyo Electron Ltd. Unsponsored ADR <8035> were weak. In a speech by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor ROKUZO Himi from 10:30 AM, he stated that 'the presence of an interest rate hike in January will be discussed.' The foreign exchange market did not react significantly, but the Nikkei average further declined following the remarks, at one point observing a drop of over 800 yen.
Among the stocks included in the Nikkei average, Advantest significantly dropped due to Nvidia's decline and downgrades from domestic securities companies. Tokyo Electron, Socionext <6526>, Disco <6146>, and Lasertec <6920> also showed notable declines in semiconductor stocks. Furthermore, wire stocks such as Furukawa Electric <5801>, Fujikura <5803>, and Sumitomo Electric <5802> were sold off. Additionally, Yaskawa Electric <6506> fell as its earnings report was perceived negatively.
On the other hand, Ryohin Keikaku <7453> saw buying dominance due to its earnings report, while resource stocks such as INPEX <1605>, Idemitsu Kosan <5019>, and Sumitomo Metal Mining <5713> were bought on rising resource prices. Other stocks like Konica Minolta <4902>, Chugai Pharmaceutical <4519>, Screen HD <7735>, and Aeon <8267> also rose.
In terms of categories, Nonferrous Metals, Electric Appliances, Service Industry, Electric and Gas, and Machinery fell, while only five sectors including Mining, Petroleum and Coal, Insurance, Rubbers, and Other Products rose.
Attention will focus on the press conference of Deputy Governor Himi of the Bank of Japan, starting at 2 PM. Following Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's statements at the press conference after the monetary policy meeting in December last year, the market had strengthened its outlook that there would be no interest rate hike in January. Therefore, deeper inquiries into today's statement of 'discussing the presence of a rate hike in January' are expected at the press conference. There is a possibility that the foreign exchange rates will fluctuate, and the Nikkei average in the afternoon session will reflect this currency-centric development.
■ The dollar-yen is struggling to rise, with caution against selling at higher levels.
On the morning of the 14th in the Tokyo market, the dollar-yen struggled to rise, after climbing from 157.12 to 158.02 yen, then slowing from the mid to late 157 yen range. Due to the significant drop in the Nikkei average, there has been a shift towards risk-averse yen buying, and the major currencies continue to face downward pressure against the yen. However, US interest rates are firm, making it difficult for the dollar to decline.
Thus far, the trading range has been dollar-yen from 157.12 to 158.02 yen, euro-yen from 161.11 to 161.86 yen, and euro-dollar from 1.0239 to 1.0277 dollars.
■ Stocks to check in the latter half.
Four stocks, including Mobilus <4370> and DI System <4421>, hit the daily limit up.
This includes the temporary limit high (response value).
The top contributor to the decline is Advantest <6857>, followed by Tokyo Electron Ltd. Unsponsored ADR <8035> in second place.
Economic indicators and remarks by important people
[Economic indicators]
Japan's November current account balance: +3 trillion 352.5 billion yen (Forecast: +2 trillion 652.5 billion yen, October +2 trillion 456.9 billion yen).
Key Person Statements
Himi no Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan.
"Managing policies and determining timing is difficult yet important."
"It is considered that the policy interest rates will continue to be raised and the degree of relaxation will be adjusted."
"For the next fiscal year and the year after, a landing around 2% is the main scenario."
"There are various risk factors both domestically and internationally, and careful judgment is necessary."
"It is not desirable for monetary policy to intentionally cause surprises."
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・ Nothing special
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