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美股早市 | 美股延续动荡行情,科技股普跌,英伟达跌近3%;特朗普概念股、部分中概股逆市走高,DJT涨近9%,网易涨超3%

U.S. Stock Market Early Session | U.S. stocks continue to be volatile, with technology stocks generally declining, NVIDIA down nearly 3%; Donald Trump concept stocks and some Chinese concept stocks are rising against the trend, DJT up nearly 9%, NetEase u

Sina Finance ·  Jan 13 23:30

On the evening of the 13th Beijing time, the rise in U.S. Treasury Notes Yield led to continued selling of large Technology stocks that have driven the bull market over the past year. This week, the market is focused on several major Banks set to announce their Earnings Reports.

As of the time of writing, the three major U.S. stock indices are showing mixed trends, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ down 0.64%, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ down 1.30%, $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ up 0.29%.

On Monday morning, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield reached 4.80%, marking the first time since November 2023. The 30-Year Bond Yield remained below the psychological threshold of 5%. The dollar hit a 26-month high.

Matt Peron, Global Solutions Director at Janus Henderson, stated: "If the 10-Year Treasury Yield reaches 5%, investors will instinctively sell Stocks. This situation could take weeks or even months to resolve, during which the S&P 500 Index might drop by 10%."

Peron pointed out that rising bond yields make U.S. Treasury yields more attractive while also increasing the cost for companies to raise funds.

Kristy Akullian, Head of Investment Strategy at Blackrock iShares, stated that while there is nothing magical about the obsession with 5%, aside from integer psychological factors, perceived barriers could create "technical obstacles", which means rapid fluctuations in yields could make it difficult for the stock market to rise.

Katherine Nixon, Chief Investment Officer of Northern Trust in the USA, stated: "As current inflation and inflation expectations rise, and become sticky, alongside rapid increases in bond yields, stock investors are starting to become more cautious."

A strong U.S. non-farm payroll report for December prompted traders to sharply cut back on bets for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, while another data set also showed rising inflation expectations.

Current market data shows that traders have significantly lowered their expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut: from about 45 basis points prior to Friday's employment data, down to just 25 basis points for the entire year of 2025.

As the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to be released on Wednesday will impact the market more than usual, with economists forecasting a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. This could further reduce market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid stated: "As the weather warms slightly, the U.S. CPI release on Wednesday may determine whether the winter in the bond market continues, especially after the strong employment report on Friday."

Bank of America has adjusted its forecast, believing there will be no interest rate cuts this year, but rather a risk of rate hikes. Goldman Sachs predicts two rate cuts this year, instead of three.

Bank of America U.S. economist Aditya Bhave stated: "After a strong employment report, we believe the rate-cutting cycle has ended. Inflation remains above the target, and there are upside risks."

Benjamin Melman, chief investment officer at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, stated: "As long as the U.S. fixed income market does not stabilize, the stock market will struggle to recover strength. We need some stability, but as seen this morning, that day does not seem to have arrived yet."

JPMorgan has lowered its forecast for the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year from three to two.

Given the strong U.S. employment data released on Friday, JPMorgan economists adjusted their predictions for the Fed's monetary policy, expecting two more rate cuts in June and September, each by 25 basis points. Previously, they expected three rate cuts.

JPMorgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli stated in a report on January 10: "The employment report is very bad, and the Fed will not ease policies again until March, so we currently expect the next rate cut in June, followed by the final one in September."

Investors hope that the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season will stabilize the market. Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan will release earnings reports this Wednesday, while Morgan Stanley and Bank of America will release earnings reports on Thursday.

This week's data includes the December Producer Price Index report (PPI) on Tuesday and the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday.

Focus on individual stocks

Growth tech stocks are generally falling today. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Falling nearly 3%, $Apple (AAPL.US)$$Meta Platforms (META.US)$ Fell over 2%.

Most China Concept Stocks rose. $NetEase (NTES.US)$ Rose over 3%,$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$ Increased by nearly 2%, $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ Wait for the follow-up increase.

Most Donald Trump concept stocks rose. $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ Increased by nearly 9%, $Rumble (RUM.US)$$Phunware (PHUN.US)$ Increased by more than 3%.

$Sage Therapeutics (SAGE.US)$ Surging over 34%, U.S. pharmaceutical company Biogen announced last Friday a plan to acquire the remaining shares at a premium of 30%.

$Intra-Cellular Therapies (ITCI.US)$ Surging over 34%, Johnson & Johnson plans to spend $10 billion to acquire the company, marking the largest biotechnology merger in nearly two years.

$Moderna (MRNA.US)$ Plummeting over 21%, Moderna significantly lowered its sales forecast for this year due to a continued decline in demand for Covid and RSV vaccines.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Falling nearly 2%, the company faced a complete sell-off of its shares by Europe’s largest retirement fund.

Editor/Somer

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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