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安踏体育(02020.HK):销售表现超预期 股权回购加快推进彰显信心

Anta Sports (02020.HK): Sales performance exceeds expectations, equity repurchases accelerate, showing confidence

SWHY Research ·  Jan 11

Key investment points:

The company released retail operation data for the fourth quarter of 2024, and the performance exceeded expectations. The number of units of the Anta brand increased in 24Q4. The increase in the number of units in the middle of the quarter accelerated from month to month, and the brand grew by high number of units throughout the year. The FILA brand's 24Q4 high number of units increased, which was a significant improvement over the decline in the number of low units in the third quarter, reflecting the company's ability to make efficient business adjustments, and the number of units in the brand's annual growth. Other outdoor brands increased their 24Q4 turnover by 50-55%, continuing the strong trend, growing 40-45% throughout the year.

By brand segment, 1) Children of the main brands performed better, and FILA continued to improve. According to the company's 24Q4 public performance exchange, the overall number of units of the Anta brand grew by a high number of units in 24Q4. Among them, Anta's large goods grew by a high number of units, and the children's business grew by a low double digit.

FILA 24Q4 grew by a high number of units year over year. Among them, the children's business changed from negative growth in the third quarter to medium unit growth. 2) The new brand maintained strong performance. Kolon Sport's fourth quarter sales increased by 60-65%, and DESCENTE increased by 45-50%. The combined sales volume of the two major brands has exceeded 10 billion dollars, and the performance continues to exceed expectations.

By channel, online growth is superior to offline, and the offline store business format continues to innovate. According to the company's 24Q4 public performance exchange, e-commerce growth for the 24Q4 brand was high by double digits, and the FILA brand's online growth rate is still expected to be faster than offline. The company's total e-commerce transactions during the Double Eleven period were 11.1 billion yuan, once again ranking first in the industry without excessive discounts. Offline channels actively carry out differentiated store layouts, such as Super Anta stores, which have high cost performance as their core advantage, effectively capture the needs of price-sensitive customer groups in an environment where consumption is downgraded, and meet current consumer trends. The store efficiency is more than double that of regular Anta stores.

Inventory remains healthy, and discount levels have steadily improved. According to the company's 24Q4 public performance exchange, the inventory sales ratio between Anta and FILA is about 5 times, which is at a healthy and reasonable level. Healthy inventory has driven good discount performance. In the fourth quarter, Anta's online discounts improved by 1 pct year over year, while offline discounts were stable year over year, at about 7.2 percent off. FILA's offline discount is around 7.4-7.5 percent off, and remains relatively stable. It shows that in an environment where big promotions were concentrated in the fourth quarter and e-commerce competition was fierce, the company did not rely on excessive discounts to obtain sales growth, but instead improved sales performance through optimization of products and marketing strategies, and the quality of business growth was high.

Brand overseas is progressing steadily, and cross-border e-commerce is being laid out. In 2025, the company will continue to promote overseas business in the Southeast Asian market, gradually expand the Middle East market, and develop direct retail business on the basis of retaining part of the wholesale business. With the continuous increase in brand recognition and influence of the Owen series in the European and American markets, it officially entered the mainstream channels Foot Locker and DSG in North America in September '24. In 2025, the company plans to open an Anta direct store in Los Angeles and develop cross-border e-commerce business to open up room for growth.

Equity repurchases are progressing at an accelerated pace, demonstrating confidence in medium- to long-term development. According to the company's announcement, from December 20, '24 to January 9, '25, the company has repurchased 12 times. The total number of shares repurchased reached 16.06 million shares, accounting for 0.6% of the total share capital, and the total amount is about HK$1.2 billion. The share repurchases were carried out in an orderly manner, demonstrating confidence in medium- to long-term development.

The company's multi-brand matrix resources are scarce, and the main brand is growing steadily. FILA focuses on high-end fashion, business adjustments are efficient, and growth returned in the fourth quarter. New outdoor brands continued their strong momentum, continued to be optimistic about the future growth potential of the company's scarce and high-quality multi-brand matrix combination, and maintained a “buy” rating. Maintaining the 24-26 profit forecast, net profit is expected to be 13.41/13.57/15.07 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to a PE of 15/15/14 times. The 24-year profit includes a one-time revenue of 1.6 billion yuan from Amer Sports's listing. If excluded, the “buy” rating will continue to be maintained.

Risk warning: Terminal sales recovery fell short of expectations; market competition increased risk; new product promotion fell short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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