According to the financial news on January 10 (edited by Xiaoxiang), tonight, TikTok's fate in the USA may迎来 a crucial moment...

According to the schedule, at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on January 10 (11 p.m. Beijing Time tonight), the U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on whether the "ban or sell" order against TikTok violates the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.

The oral debate will be between TikTok and the U.S. Department of Justice, and TikTok will have the opportunity to make its final defense before the U.S. Supreme Court.

In April of this year, the U.S. Congress passed a law under the pretext of National Security, requiring TikTok's parent company ByteDance to divest this application, or it would be banned from entering U.S. app stores and online hosting platforms. TikTok subsequently sued the U.S. Department of Justice, claiming that the "ban or sell" order violated the First Amendment's protection of free speech. However, last month, the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld that ban.

This prompted TikTok to eventually submit the case to the Supreme Court. On December 18, the U.S. Supreme Court announced that it would again discuss the bill to prohibit TikTok's operation in the USA. The relevant debates were scheduled to occur today (January 10).

TikTok's lawyers had previously urged the Supreme Court to overturn this imminent ban, arguing that the ban would stifle the free speech of more than 0.17 billion American users of the platform.

In response to the claims of "security threats," TikTok also argued that its content recommendation engine and user Data Storage are stored in the USA.$Oracle (ORCL.US)$The content review decisions affecting users in the USA are made in the USA on the cloud servers operated by the company. The security concerns of the USA government are too vague and rely too much on assumptions, which are insufficient to prove that the practices infringe upon its rights are reasonable.

It is worth mentioning that right before the Supreme Court was about to make the final ruling, the American consortium's attempt to acquire the 'heart' of TikTok under duress is still alive.

Frank McCourt, the American real estate tycoon, and his partner consortium in Project Libert announced on Thursday that they have submitted a proposal to ByteDance to acquire TikTok's US Assets, hoping to restructure the business into a platform owned by the USA, prioritizing the data security of users.

However, ByteDance has previously made it clear multiple times that it refuses to sell TikTok.

The fate of TikTok is about to be revealed.

From the current situation, the ultimate ruling of the USA Supreme Court will result in three possible outcomes:

① TikTok wins the lawsuit. TikTok is exempt from being banned in the USA;

The Supreme Court ruled to postpone the execution. The TikTok issue may be postponed until Trump takes office to decide again;

TikTok lost the lawsuit. TikTok was "not selling means banning" the day before Trump took office (January 19);

Currently, a variable in TikTok's fate may still depend on whether Trump's previous request to the USA Supreme Court can be effective. At the end of last month, Trump requested the USA Supreme Court to suspend the enforcement of the forced sale order for TikTok, stating that he hoped the court would give him time to resolve this issue through political means after he officially took office on January 20 next year.

Trump then stated that the Supreme Court should allow the extension of the deadline; otherwise, it would undermine his ability to implement foreign policy after taking office. He also expressed concern about the potential effects of this on TikTok users and the possibility of setting a dangerous precedent for Internet Plus-Related regulation.

So, if TikTok is indeed banned on January 19, will USA users still be able to use TikTok?

Legal experts have stated that the relevant "not selling means banning" order does not completely prohibit the use of TikTok, but requires Apple and Alphabet-C to remove TikTok from their app stores before January 19. Those who have not installed TikTok on their phones or tablets will not be able to download it from these app stores. The law also prohibits USA Internet Plus-Related hosting services and Data Storage providers from supporting the application.

Therefore, the TikTok application may not suddenly disappear from the phones and tablets of Americans. The applications that are already installed might still be usable in the short term, but they are expected to gradually fade away as functions are lost because once removed from Apple and Alphabet-C's app stores, ByteDance will not be able to arrange software upgrades through common channels.

At the same time, if the Supreme Court lets the ban take effect as planned, the options left for Trump to change TikTok's fate in the USA will be limited. Trump can refuse to enforce the ban or urge Congress to pass new legislation to lift the ban. But even with Trump's guarantee, if the law remains effective, $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ and $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Reintroducing TikTok still carries risks. The broad support from Congress for the ban also makes the possibility of a legislative solution very small.

Editor/rice