Three key points to watch in the second half of the session – First Retail sees a significant drop, but Semiconductors stocks provide support.

Fisco Japan · Jan 10 11:30

10日の後場の取引では以下の3つのポイントに注目したい。

・日経平均は3日続落、ファーストリテ大幅安も半導体株が下支え

・ドル・円は切り返し、米金利・日本株にらみ

・値下がり寄与トップはファーストリテ＜9983＞、同2位は中外製薬＜4519＞

■日経平均は3日続落、ファーストリテ大幅安も半導体株が下支え

日経平均は3日続落。前日比193.33円安（－0.49％）の39411.76円（出来高概算9億1000万株）で前場の取引を終えている。

9日の米国株式市場は、カーター元大統領の国葬のため休場。為替は1ドル158円前後での小動きとなった。

米国市場は休場だったが、第1四半期決算を発表したファーストリテ＜9983＞が中国販売の先行き懸念が再燃し大幅安となったことから、日経平均は3日続落で取引を開始した。ファーストリテ1社で日経平均を300円超押し下げる展開となったが、アドバンテスト＜6857＞が上場来高値を更新するなど値がさ半導体株の上げが下支えとなり、日経平均は下げ渋る展開となった。なお、朝方に算出された1月限オプション特別清算指数（SQ値）は概算で39343.19円。

日経平均採用銘柄では、ファーストリテが前日比6％超の大幅安となったほか、金利上昇で足元買われていた千葉銀行＜8331＞、しずおかFG＜5831＞、りそなHD＜8308＞など地銀株が売られた。また、みずほ＜8411＞、三井住友＜8316＞も下落。このほか、三井金＜5706＞、中外製薬＜4519＞、サッポロHD＜2501＞、商船三井＜9104＞などがさえない。

一方、アドバンテストのほか、スクリーンHD＜7735＞、東京エレクトロン＜8035＞など半導体株の一角も買われたほか、日本製鋼所＜5631＞、川崎重＜7012＞、三菱重＜7011＞、IHI＜7013＞など防衛関連が上昇。また、古河電工＜5801＞、フジクラ＜5803＞など電線株も買われた。このほか、塩野義製薬＜4507＞、ZOZO＜3092＞、コムシスホールディングス＜1721＞、HOYA＜7741＞などが上昇。

業種別では、海運、銀行、医薬品、小売、倉庫・運輸などが下落した一方、非鉄金属、金属製品、精密機器、機械、その他製品などが上昇した。

ファーストリテの大幅安がなければ、半導体株高で日経平均は反発の地合いだったが、一部ではトランプ次期大統領による関税引き上げに関する混乱を懸念する声が強まっており、先物市場では売りが膨らんでいるとの指摘もある。大統領就任が間近に迫っていることから、市場ではトランプ次期大統領の発信力が警戒されて様子見ムードがやや強まっている様子。後場の日経平均は、強い値がさ半導体株と弱いファーストリテ次第となりそうだが、25日移動平均線が位置する39404円水準でのもみ合いとなろう。

■ドル・円は切り返し、米金利・日本株にらみ

10日午前の東京市場でドル・円は一時157円98銭まで下落後、158円28銭まで値を上げた。仲値にかけて国内勢のドル売りが強まる場面もあったが、米10年債利回りは小幅に上昇し、ドル買い再開。また、日経平均株価の下げ幅縮小で、円売りは後退。

ここまでの取引レンジは、ドル・円は157円98銭から158円28銭、ユーロ・円は162円61銭から163円05銭、ユーロ・ドルは1.0292ドルから1.0304ドル。

■後場のチェック銘柄

・テクニスコ＜2962＞、ＢｌｕｅＭｅｍｅ＜4069＞など、5銘柄がストップ高

※一時ストップ高（気配値）を含みます

・値下がり寄与トップはファーストリテ＜9983＞、同2位は中外製薬＜4519＞

■経済指標・要人発言

【経済指標】

・特になし

【要人発言】

・イーロン・マスク氏

「連邦支出の削減、1兆ドルの公算が大きい」

＜国内＞

・14：00　11月景気先行指数速報（予想：107.2、10月：109.1）

＜海外＞

・特になし

During the trading session on the 10th, I would like to focus on the following three points.

• The Nikkei Index has fallen for three consecutive days, and while Fast Retailing saw significant declines, Semiconductor stocks provided support.

• The dollar-yen exchange rate has rebounded, eyeing USA interest rates and Japanese stocks.

• The top contributor to the decline was Fast Retailing <9983>, followed by Chugai Pharmaceutical <4519>.

■ The Nikkei Index has fallen for three consecutive days, and while Fast Retailing saw significant declines, Semiconductor stocks provided support.

The Nikkei Index has fallen for three consecutive days. It ended the morning trading session at 39,411.76 yen, down 193.33 yen (-0.49%) from the previous day, with an estimated Volume of 0.9 billion stocks.

On the 9th, the US stock market was closed due to the state funeral of former President Carter. The exchange rate remained subdued around 158 yen per dollar.

Although the US market was closed, Fast Retailing <9983>, which announced its first-quarter earnings, faced renewed concerns regarding sales in China, resulting in a significant drop, causing the Nikkei Index to start trading down for the third consecutive day. Fast Retailing alone pushed the Nikkei Index down by over 300 yen, but the rise in high-priced Semiconductor stocks, such as Advantest <6857> hitting an all-time high, provided support, resulting in a moderation of the decline for the Nikkei Index. Furthermore, the special settlement index (SQ value) for the January Futures options calculated in the morning was approximately 39,343.19 yen.

In the Nikkei average listed stocks, Fast Retailing fell more than 6% compared to the previous day, and regional bank stocks such as Chiba Bank <8331>, Shizuoka FG <5831>, and Resona HD <8308> were sold due to rising interest rates. Additionally, Mizuho <8411> and Sumitomo Mitsui <8316> also decreased. Furthermore, Mitsui Mining <5706>, Chugai Pharmaceutical <4519>, Sapporo HD <2501>, and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines <9104> were sluggish.

On the other hand, in addition to Advantest, stocks in the semiconductor sector including Screen HD <7735> and Tokyo Electron Ltd. Unsponsored ADR <8035> were bought, as well as defense-related stocks such as Japan Steel Works <5631>, Kawasaki Heavy Industries <7012>, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries <7011>, and IHI <7013>. Moreover, stocks in the wire industry like Furukawa Electric <5801> and Fujikura <5803> were also bought. Additionally, Shionogi <4507>, ZOZO <3092>, Comsys Holdings <1721>, and HOYA <7741> increased.

By sector, Marine Shipping, Bank, Pharmaceutical, Retail, and Warehousing & Transportation decreased, while Nonferrous Metals, Metal Products, Precision Instruments, Machinery, and Other Products increased.

Without the significant drop in Fast Retailing, the Nikkei average would have rebounded on the strength of semiconductor stocks, but there are growing concerns about the confusion regarding tariffs raised by the next President Trump, leading to increased selling in the futures market. Due to the approaching presidential inauguration, there seems to be a cautious sentiment in the market regarding Trump's influence. In the afternoon session, the Nikkei average will depend on the strong semiconductor stocks and weak Fast Retailing, but is likely to hover around the level of 39,404 yen where the 25-day moving average is located.

■ The dollar-yen is recovering, eyeing US interest rates and Japanese stocks.

In the Tokyo market on the morning of the 10th, the dollar-yen fell to 157.98 yen and then rose to 158.28 yen. There was a moment when domestic dollar selling intensified around the fixing rate, but the US 10-year bond yield has slightly increased, prompting a resumption of dollar buying. With the decrease in the Nikkei average stock price, yen selling has receded.

Up to this point, the trading range has been 157.98 to 158.28 yen for dollar-yen, 162.61 to 163.05 yen for euro-yen, and 1.0292 to 1.0304 dollars for euro-dollar.

■ Stocks to check in the latter half.

・Technisco <2962> and BlueMeme <4069>, among five stocks, reached the daily limit up.

This includes the temporary limit high (response value).

• The top contributor to the decline was Fast Retailing <9983>, followed by Chugai Pharmaceutical <4519>.

Economic indicators and remarks by important people

[Economic indicators]

・ Nothing special

Key Person Statements

・Elon Musk.

The potential for a reduction in federal spending is significant at 1 trillion dollars.

< Domestic >

• 14:00 Preliminary November Leading Economic Index (Financial Estimates: 107.2, October: 109.1)

・ Nothing special

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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後場に注目すべき3つのポイント～ファーストリテ大幅安も半導体株が下支え

Three key points to watch in the second half of the session – First Retail sees a significant drop, but Semiconductors stocks provide support.

Risk Disclaimer

Statement