Is The Bitcoin Top In? 75% Chance, Says Prominent Trader, But There's A Caveat
Is The Bitcoin Top In? 75% Chance, Says Prominent Trader, But There's A Caveat
Bitcoin's sudden course reversal from $102,000 to $95,000 has kickstarted a discussion among cryptocurrency traders and analysts about whether the Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) cycle top is in.
比特币从102,000美元突然反转至95,000美元,引发了数字货币交易者和分析师关于比特币(数字货币:BTC)周期顶部是否已经到达的讨论。
What Happened: Prominent crypto trader Ansem shared his outlook on the market cycle in a detailed post on X, expressing scepticism about continued unbridled growth.
发生了什么:著名的加密货币交易员Ansem在X上详细发帖分享了他对市场周期的看法,表示对持续的狂热增长持怀疑态度。
Responding to another trader's assertion of a 20-25% chance that the market cycle has topped, Ansem countered with a 75% probability.
对此,一位交易员声称市场周期顶部的可能性为20-25%,Ansem则以75%的概率进行反驳。
He highlighted all-time high stock valuations and overly optimistic expectations regarding the economic impact of the new administration.
他强调了历史最高的股票估值和对新政府经济影响的过于乐观的预期。
Ansem notes that Trump-era policies, such as tariffs and job onshoring, could drive inflationary pressures, leading to higher consumer prices and employment rates.
Ansem指出,特朗普时代的政策,如关税和岗位回流,可能会导致通货膨胀压力,从而推高消费价格和就业率。
The Fed's hawkish stance further dampens the likelihood of interest rate cuts, even as markets hope for cuts in 2025.
美联储的鹰派立场进一步减少了降息的可能性,即使市场希望在2025年降息。
For the crypto sector, a strategic Bitcoin reserve plan—though bullish—is seen as improbable in the short term, while regulatory clarity for DeFi and stablecoins may not significantly materialize until post-2027.
对于数字货币板块,一个战略性的比特币储备计划尽管看好,但在短期内被视为不太可能,而DeFi和稳定币的监管清晰度可能要到2027年后才会显著实现。
Also Read: Bitcoin Is Suffering From A Shift In Macro Expectations, Analyst Says: Here's What That Means
另请阅读:分析师表示,比特币正面临宏观预期的变化:这意味着什么
Outlook for 2025-2026: Ansem predicts a more measured uptrend rather than an "up only" cycle:
2025-2026年展望:安森预测将出现一种更为温和的上升趋势,而不是"仅仅上涨"的周期:
Growth will be driven by innovative projects, such as Ethena and Hyperliquid, and consumer-focused teams, such as Base and Parallel.
增长将由创新项目驱动,如以太坊和Hyperliquid,以及以消费为中心的团队,如Base和Parallel。
Broad altcoin rallies, like those seen in 2021, are unlikely due to tighter monetary conditions and market maturity.
由于货币条件收紧和市场成熟,像2021年那样的广泛山寨币反弹是不太可能的。
Instead, sectoral rotations—such as the DeFi rally of 2021—will drive pockets of outperformance.
相反,板块轮动—如2021年的DeFi反弹—将驱动一些超额表现。
Retail investors heavily exposed to altcoins may perceive sideways trends in major cryptocurrencies as a bear market, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies.
大量投资于山寨币的散户投资者可能会将主要数字货币的横盘趋势视为熊市,这强调了适应性策略的必要性。
Why It Matters: Ansem's insights reflect the evolving dynamics of the crypto market, with greater emphasis on selective, innovation-driven growth and caution toward broader market conditions.
其重要性:安森的见解反映了加密市场的发展动态,更加注重选择性、创新驱动的增长及对更广泛市场条件的谨慎态度。
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译文内容由第三方软件翻译。