share_log

Is CVR Energy (NYSE:CVI) A Risky Investment?

Is CVR Energy (NYSE:CVI) A Risky Investment?

CVR能源(紐交所:CVI)是一個高風險的投資嗎?
Simply Wall St ·  01/08 20:55

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, CVR Energy, Inc. (NYSE:CVI) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?

霍華德·馬克斯說得很好,他表示,與其擔心股價波動,'我擔心的是永久性損失的可能性……而我認識的每一個實際投資者也都擔心這一點。' 在評估一家公司的風險時,考慮其資產負債表是很自然的,畢竟企業倒閉時往往涉及債務。 重要的是,CVR能源公司(紐交所:CVI)確實揹負着債務。 但這些債務對股東來說是個問題嗎?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

債務帶來了什麼風險?

Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.

債務在企業困境之前是有助於企業的,無論是通過新的資本還是自由現金流。資本主義的一個重要組成部分是『創造性毀滅』的過程,失敗的企業被其銀行毫不留情地清算。然而,更常見(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,公司不得不以超低價格發行股票來穩固其資產負債表,永久稀釋股東權益。當然,債務在企業中可以是一個重要工具,特別是在資本密集型企業中。當我們考慮公司的債務使用時,首先要將現金和債務一起考慮。

What Is CVR Energy's Net Debt?

CVR能源的淨債務是多少?

As you can see below, CVR Energy had US$1.54b of debt, at September 2024, which is about the same as the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. On the flip side, it has US$534.0m in cash leading to net debt of about US$1.01b.

正如您在下方看到的,到2024年9月,CVR能源的債務爲15.4億美元,與前一年大致相同。您可以點擊圖表查看更詳細的信息。 相對而言,它有53400萬美元的現金,導致淨債務約爲10.1億美元。

big
NYSE:CVI Debt to Equity History January 8th 2025
紐交所:CVI 債務與股本歷史 2025年1月8日

A Look At CVR Energy's Liabilities

審視CVR能源的負債

According to the last reported balance sheet, CVR Energy had liabilities of US$1.06b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$1.97b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$534.0m as well as receivables valued at US$281.0m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$2.21b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

根據最後報告的資產負債表,CVR能源的負債爲10.6億美元,12個月內到期,長期負債爲19.7億美元。抵消這些義務,它有53400萬美元的現金以及28100萬美元的應收賬款,12個月內到期。因此,它的負債總額比現金和短期應收賬款之和多出22.1億美元。

When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's US$1.82b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.

考慮到這個缺口超過了公司18.2億美元的市值,你可能會傾向於仔細審核資產負債表。假設如果公司被迫通過在當前股價水平上增發資本來償還其負債,將需要極大程度的稀釋。

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

我們通過看淨債務與息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)的比率,以及計算其息稅前利潤(EBIT)如何輕鬆地覆蓋利息費用(利息覆蓋)來衡量一家公司相對於其獲利能力的債務負擔。這樣,我們既考慮了債務的絕對量,也考慮了其支付的利率。

CVR Energy has net debt worth 2.2 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 2.5 times the interest expense. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. Shareholders should be aware that CVR Energy's EBIT was down 87% last year. If that earnings trend continues then paying off its debt will be about as easy as herding cats on to a roller coaster. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine CVR Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

CVR能源的淨債務是EBITDA的2.2倍,這並不算太多,但其利息覆蓋率看起來有點低,EBIT僅爲利息支出的2.5倍。這在很大程度上是由於公司重大折舊和攤銷費用,這可以說使得其EBITDA成爲一個非常寬鬆的收益衡量標準,其債務可能比最初看起來的更具負擔性。股東應當注意,CVR能源的EBIT去年下降了87%。如果這種盈利趨勢持續下去,那麼償還其債務就像把貓趕上過山車一樣困難。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中了解最多的就是債務。但未來的收益,尤其是,將決定CVR能源保持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想知道專業人士的看法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, CVR Energy recorded free cash flow worth 68% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

最終,儘管稅務人員可能喜歡會計利潤,但貸方只接受現金。因此,我們總是檢查EBIT中有多少轉化爲自由現金流。在最近三年中,CVR能源的自由現金流佔其EBIT的68%,這一比例在正常範圍內,因爲自由現金流不包括利息和稅。這筆現金意味着它可以在想要的時候減少債務。

Our View

我們的觀點

Mulling over CVR Energy's attempt at (not) growing its EBIT, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, it seems to us that CVR Energy's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for CVR Energy (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

考慮到CVR能源試圖(不)增長其EBIT,我們當然不太熱衷。但樂觀的一面是,它將EBIT轉化爲自由現金流的能力是一個好跡象,使我們更爲樂觀。總體而言,在我們看來,CVR能源的資產負債表確實對業務構成了相當大的風險。因此,我們對這隻股票持謹慎態度,我們認爲股東應該密切關注其流動性。顯然,在分析債務時,資產負債表是需要關注的重點。然而,投資風險並不都存在於資產負債表中,遠不止於此。這些風險可能很難發現。每家公司都有這些風險,而我們已經發現了2個CVR能源的警示信號(其中1個令人擔憂!)你應該知道。

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

對本文有反饋?對內容有疑慮?請直接與我們聯繫。或者,發送電子郵件至 editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com。
這篇來自Simply Wall ST的文章是一般性的。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,採用無偏見的方法,我們的文章並不旨在提供財務建議。它不構成對任何股票的買入或賣出建議,也未考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您提供以基本數據驅動的長期分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall ST在提到的任何股票中均沒有持倉。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
    搶先評論