FUTU Morning Post

US Stock Outlook | "ADP Employment Report" falls short of expectations! The three major futures indices show slight gains; boosted by AMD's bullish investment, AI startup ABSI rises over 40% in pre-market trading.

Futu News · Jan 8 21:20

热点要闻

周三盘前，三大期指微涨，“小非农”数据低于预期，美联储会议纪要今晚来袭

美国12月ADP就业人数增加12.2万人，预期增加14万人，前值增加14.6万人。

北京时间周四03：00，美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将公布12月货币政策会议纪要。该纪要可能揭示更多关于未来政策路径的线索，尤其是关于美联储是否真正转鹰方面的线索。在12月会议上，美联储如期降息25个基点，官员们预测2025年仅降息两次。美联储主席鲍威尔表示，进一步的调整将取决于通胀的轨迹。

明星科技股盘前多数下跌，美光科技升0.4%，英伟达升0.24%

量子计算概念股盘前集体下挫，黄仁勋称量子计算机实现应用至少要等15年

英伟达CEO黄仁勋称量子计算机实现应用至少要等15年，美股量子计算概念股盘前集体下挫，$Quantum Computing (QUBT.US)$、$Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US)$、$昆腾 (QMCO.US)$跌超20%，$微美全息 (WIMI.US)$跌逾13%。

苹果10亿美元投资未解印尼禁令，iPhone 16系列销售受阻

印度尼西亚禁止销售$苹果 (AAPL.US)$ iPhone 16系列，指出苹果在当地的10亿美元AirTag工厂计划未能满足投资要求。在周三的简报会上，印尼部长阿古斯·古米旺·卡塔萨斯米塔表示，根据国内内容规则，苹果公司需要在印尼国内生产部分智能手机或零部件，而AirTag仅被视为一个配件，不足以达标。

马斯克：未来几周内可能会更新特斯拉的Optimus机器人

当地时间1月7日，马斯克在最新一次游戏直播时透露，“未来几周内，我们就可能会更新Optimus(人形机器人擎天柱)，它的进展非常顺利，团队做得很棒。”马斯克曾在2024年6月的$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$股东大会上表示，2024年底至2025年初，Optimus将进行“重大的硬件改版”，且在2025年进入限量生产阶段，届时或将有超过1000台Optimus机器人在工厂内试运行。

扎克伯格向特朗普政府示好，Meta平台终止事实核查项目

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$平台宣布，将终止其第三方事实核查计划，转而采用类似X平台的用户撰写的社区注释模式，同时减少对移民和性别认同等有争议话题的讨论限制。该计划将首先在美国实施。扎克伯格在一段视频中说：“我们已经到了错误太多、审查太多的地步，是时候回归自由表达的本源了”，并承认最近的美国大选对他的想法起到了作用。

AI势不可挡！亚马逊再砸110亿美元扩建佐治亚州数据中心

$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$云计算部门亚马逊网络服务（AWS）计划在佐治亚州投资至少110亿美元，以扩大其基础设施，并支持各种云计算和人工智能技术。周二（1月7日），该公司在一份新闻稿中写道，AWS将扩大其在佐治亚州的业务，推动人工智能等下一代尖端技术的蓬勃发展，“我们感谢与我们合作的州和地方领导人，我们期待着让佐治亚州保持在数字时代的前沿。”

英国监管机构称可能接受新思科技与安斯科技就收购交易提出的补救措施

英国竞争监管机构周三表示，可能会接受芯片设计软件制造商$新思科技 (SNPS.US)$和$安斯科技 (ANSS.US)$提出的补救措施，以消除对该笔350亿美元收购交易的担忧。英国竞争和市场管理局(CMA)称，两家公司提出的承诺包括剥离安斯科技的PowerArtist以及新思科技出售光学解决方案集团。CMA将在3月5日之前决定是否接受这些承诺，并有可能将最后期限延长至5月6日。

美光斥70亿美元新加坡建高频宽记忆体封装厂

据《联合早报》报道，$美光科技 (MU.US)$将斥资70亿美元扩大在新加坡的产能，计划兴建高频宽记忆体(HBM)先进封装厂，预计明年竣工，并在2027年开始为公司的整体产能做出贡献，预计可为当地创造1,400个职位。

新加坡副总理兼贸工部长颜金勇表示，半导体业是新加坡先进制造业的关键领域，占国内生产总值的8%，政府将会加倍投资以推动专精半导体如NAND快闪记忆体的发展，或开发高频宽记忆体等的新领域。

日本半导体厂商Rapidus或同博通合作，最快6月提供2纳米制程芯片原型

1月8日消息，据悉，日本半导体制造商Rapidus计划与$博通 (AVGO.US)$合作，最快今年6月同后者分享其2纳米制程芯片原型。通过合作，Rapidus有望向博通的客户供应芯片。

AMD向Absci投资2000万美元，Absci盘前飙升逾44%

$Absci Corp (ABSI.US)$美股盘前飙升逾44%。据华尔街日报，AMD向人工智能公司Absci投资2000万美元。

生物技术Sana盘前涨逾230%，公司宣布无免疫抑制的1型糖尿病胰岛电芯移植研究获得积极临床结果

生物技术公司$Sana Biotechnology (SANA.US)$盘前涨逾230%，公司发布了其正在开发的1型糖尿病治疗方案的积极数据。该公司表示，他们将其治疗方案UP421，一种使用其低免疫科技工程化的同种异体胰岛细胞疗法，移植到了未使用任何免疫抑制剂的1型糖尿病患者身上。这项研究未发现安全问题，低免疫修饰的胰岛细胞成功躲避了免疫反应。

$eBay (EBAY.US)$美股盘前涨逾4%，Meta将测试在Facebook Marketplace上展示eBay商品列表

壳牌下调Q4液化天然气产量预期，预警油气交易疲软，盘前跌近3%

$壳牌 (SHEL.US)$在周三发布交易更新，下调了其第四季度液化天然气的生产预期，并预计其石油和天然气交易结果将显著低于前一季度，同时还将计提15亿至30亿美元的非现金税后减值准备。具体而言，壳牌将第四季度液化天然气产量预测从先前的690万至750万吨下调至680-720万吨，归因于输送至液化设施的原料气减少以及货物运输的缩减。

截至发稿，壳牌盘前跌近3%。

CES发布会后英伟达昨日大跌超6%！大户1262万美元买call逆市看涨

黄仁勋CES演讲结束后， $英伟达 (NVDA.US)$昨日大跌超6%，隔夜期权成交673.85万张，较上一日增长17%，看涨比例为75.4%，引伸波幅等级下降至22.72%。

期权链上成交量最多的是本周五到期，行权价为150美元的call单，成交33.79万张；未平仓数量最多的，是下周五到期，行权价为140美元的call单，有25.12万张未平仓。

英伟达周二盘初曾涨近2.5%，创历史新高后回落。有评论认为，英伟达最新发布的消息对该公司的长期前景给出了乐观态度，但短期的上涨空间并不像一些投资者所期待的那么大，并未满足投资者对短线利好的期待。$Stifel Financial Corp. (SFB.US)$的报告就称，英伟达当地时间周一发表的消息意义重大，但那是长远而言的。

尽管英伟达隔夜大跌，但仍有大户下注千万美元看涨。具体来看，下周五到期行权价为147美元的call单被买入6.16万张，涉资达1262万美元，方向为看多。

全球宏观

抄底时刻到来？花旗：美债收益率升至5%将带来买入良机

当地时间1月8日，花旗集团首席投资策略师兼首席经济学家Steven Wieting表示，美国10年期国债收益率可能进一步升至5%，而这也将是入手的好时机。Wieting在新加坡的会议上说道：“10年期美债收益率接近5%是肯定可能的，5%的水平将是我们认为非常有吸引力的点位。”

美联储理事沃勒：支持今年进一步降息

美联储理事沃勒周三表示，通胀率在2025年应该会继续下降，并允许美联储进一步降息，尽管速度尚不确定。沃勒表示，虽然在2024年的最后几个月，通胀 “似乎确实停滞”在美联储2%的目标之上，但基于市场的通胀预估，以及一个月和更短期的通胀读数，让他相信美国的通胀正在继续缓解。

沃勒说：“这种微乎其微的进展导致了放慢或停止降息的呼声。然而，我相信在中期内，通胀率将继续朝着2%的目标迈进，进一步降息将是适当的。”沃勒没有透露他认为今年应该降息多少次，但他指出，美联储官员观点的范围相当大，从不降息到多达五次降息。“我仍然相信美国经济根基稳固，” 沃勒称，“数据或预估中没有任何迹象显示未来数月就业市场将大幅走弱。”

美联储博斯蒂克：通胀将逐步回落，政策制定者决策时应保持谨慎

亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，鉴于在降低通胀方面取得的进展不均衡，官员们在决策时应谨慎，并倾向于维持高利率以实现物价稳定的目标。博斯蒂克还表示，他预计今年通胀率将逐步回落至美联储2%的目标。他补充称，预计价格压力将会消退，尽管有些时候可能看起来进展正在停滞，或者通胀加剧。他表示：“鉴于这些措施的不确定性，我认为这将要求我们的政策手段更加谨慎。”

知情人士称特朗普正考虑宣布全国经济紧急状态，以推出新的关税计划

据CNN，知情人士称，美国当选总统特朗普考虑宣布国家经济紧急状态，以便为普遍关税提供法律依据。宣布进入经济紧急状态将可让特朗普利用《国际紧急经济权力法》制定新的关税计划，该法律单方面授权美国总统在国家紧急状态时期管理进口。据悉，特朗普对该法青睐有加，因其在关税实施方式方面赋予普遍的管辖权，且未严格要求以“国家安全”为依据证明关税的必要性。知情人士称，特朗普方面尚未就是否宣布国家紧急状态做出最终决定。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

21:00：美联储理事沃勒在经合组织的会议上就经济前景发表讲话。

21:15：美国12月ADP就业人数变动(万)。

21:30：美国截至1月4日当周初请失业金人数(万)。

23:00：美国11月批发库存月率终值(%)。

23:30：美国截至1月3日当周EIA原油库存变动(万桶)。

次日凌晨

1:00：美国截至1月3日当周EIA天然气库存变动(亿立方英尺)。

3:00：美联储公布12月货币政策会议纪要。

编辑/ping

Hot News

In Pre-Market Trading on Wednesday, the three major index futures slightly rose, the "ADP Nonfarm Employment Change" data was lower than expected, and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are coming tonight.

In December, the USA ADP employment increased by 0.122 million people, with an expected increase of 0.14 million people, and the previous value increased by 0.146 million people.

At 03:00 Beijing time on Thursday, the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes from the December monetary policy meeting. The minutes may reveal more clues about the future policy trajectory, especially concerning whether the Fed is truly turning hawkish. In the December meeting, the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with officials predicting just two rate cuts in 2025. Fed Chairman Powell stated that further adjustments will depend on the trajectory of inflation.

Most Growth Tech stocks are down before the market opens, with Micron Technology up 0.4% and NVIDIA up 0.24%.

Quantum Computing concept stocks collectively fell before the market opened, with Jensen Huang stating that practical applications of quantum computers are at least 15 years away.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated that practical applications of quantum computers are at least 15 years away, causing a collective decline in U.S. quantum computing concept stocks before the market opened.$Quantum Computing (QUBT.US)$、$Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US)$、$Quantum (QMCO.US)$Fell over 20%,$WiMi Hologram Cloud (WIMI.US)$Fell over 13%.

Apple's 1 billion dollar investment is unresolved due to Indonesia's ban, affecting iPhone 16 series sales.

印度尼西亚禁止销售$Apple (AAPL.US)$ iPhone 16系列，指出苹果在当地的1 billion美元AirTag工厂计划未能满足投资要求。在周三的简报会上，印尼部长阿古斯·古米旺·卡塔萨斯米塔表示，根据国内内容规则，苹果公司需要在印尼国内生产部分智能手机或零部件，而AirTag仅被视为一个配件，不足以达标。

马斯克：未来几周内可能会更新特斯拉的Optimus机器人

当地时间1月7日，马斯克在最新一次游戏直播时透露，“未来几周内，我们就可能会更新Optimus(人形机器人擎天柱)，它的进展非常顺利，团队做得很棒。”马斯克曾在2024年6月的$Tesla (TSLA.US)$At the shareholders' meeting, it was stated that by the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, Optimus will undergo a "significant Hardware redesign," and will enter a limited production phase in 2025, at which time there may be more than 1,000 Optimus Siasun Robot&Automation running in the factory.

扎克伯格向特朗普政府示好，Meta平台终止事实核查项目

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$The platform announced that it will terminate its third-party fact-checking program and instead adopt a community annotation model similar to that of platform X, while reducing restrictions on discussions of controversial topics such as immigration and gender identity. This plan will first be implemented in the USA. Zuckerberg stated in a video, "We have reached a point where there is too much error and too much censorship, and it's time to return to the essence of free expression," admitting that the recent U.S. elections influenced his thoughts.

AI is unstoppable! Amazon is investing another 11 billion dollars to expand its Datacenter in Georgia.

$Amazon (AMZN.US)$Amazon Web Services (AWS), its Cloud Computing department, plans to invest at least 11 billion dollars in Georgia to expand its infrastructure and support various Cloud Computing and AI technologies. On Tuesday (January 7), the company wrote in a press release that AWS will enhance its business in Georgia, promoting the thriving development of next-generation cutting-edge technologies such as AI. "We appreciate the state and local leaders who work with us, and we look forward to keeping Georgia at the forefront of the digital age."

UK regulators indicated that they might accept the remedies proposed by Synopsys and Ansys regarding the acquisition deal.

The UK Competition regulatory body stated on Wednesday that it may accept the proposals from the chip design software manufacturer.$Synopsys (SNPS.US)$and$Ansys (ANSS.US)$The proposed remedial measures aim to eliminate concerns regarding the $35 billion acquisition deal. The United Kingdom's Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) stated that the commitments proposed by both companies include the divestiture of Ansys's PowerArtist and Synopsys's sale of Optical Solutions Group. The CMA will decide whether to accept these commitments by March 5 and may extend the deadline to May 6.

Micron is investing $7 billion to build a high bandwidth memory packaging factory in Singapore.

According to the Straits Times report,$Micron Technology (MU.US)$the company will invest $7 billion to expand its capacity in Singapore, planning to build a high bandwidth memory (HBM) advanced packaging facility, which is expected to be completed next year and start contributing to the company’s overall capacity by 2027, creating an estimated 1,400 jobs locally.

Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Trade and Industry Gan Kim Yong stated that the semiconductor industry is a key area of advanced manufacturing in Singapore, accounting for 8% of the GDP, and the government will double its investment to promote the development of specialized semiconductors such as NAND flash memory or explore new areas such as high bandwidth memory.

The Japanese semiconductor manufacturer Rapidus is expected to collaborate with Broadcom to provide a 2-nanometer process chip prototype as early as June.

On January 8, news broke that the Japanese semiconductor manufacturer Rapidus plans to collaborate with$Broadcom (AVGO.US)$the goal is to share its 2-nanometer process chip prototype with the latter as early as June this year. Through the collaboration, Rapidus is expected to supply chips to Broadcom's customers.

AMD invests 20 million dollars in Absci, Absci surges over 44% in Pre-Market Trading.

$Absci Corp (ABSI.US)$U.S. stocks soared over 44% in Pre-Market Trading. According to the Wall Street Journal, AMD has invested 20 million dollars in the AI company Absci.

Biotechnology company Sana rose over 230% in Pre-Market Trading after announcing positive clinical results from its immunosuppressant-free Type 1 diabetes islet cell transplantation study.

Biotechnology Company$Sana Biotechnology (SANA.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, up over 230%, the company released positive data on its developing treatment plan for Type 1 diabetes. The company stated that their treatment plan UP421, which uses its low immune technology engineered allogeneic islet cell therapy, was transplanted into Type 1 diabetes patients without using any immunosuppressants. The study found no safety issues, as the low immune modified islet cells successfully evaded the immune response.

$eBay (EBAY.US)$In Pre-Market Trading, up over 4%, Meta will test displaying eBay product listings on Facebook Marketplace.

Shell lowers its Q4 liquefied natural gas production forecast, warns of weak Oil & Gas trade, down nearly 3% in Pre-Market Trading.

$Shell (SHEL.US)$In a trading update released on Wednesday, Shell lowered its fourth quarter liquefied natural gas production forecast and expects its Oil & Gas trading results to be significantly lower than the previous quarter, while also planning to record a non-cash after-tax impairment charge of $1.5 billion to $3 billion. Specifically, Shell has revised its fourth quarter liquefied natural gas production forecast down from 6.9 million to 7.5 million tons to 6.8-7.2 million tons, due to a decrease in feed gas delivered to liquefaction facilities and a reduction in cargo transportation.

As of the report, Shell's shares fell nearly 3% in Pre-Market Trading.

After the CES press conference, NVIDIA's shares declined more than 6% yesterday! Large investors bought $12.62 million in Calls, bullish against the trend.

After Huang Renxun's speech at CES, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Yesterday's drop exceeded 6%, with overnight Options trading of 6.7385 million contracts, an increase of 17% compared to the previous day, and the bullish ratio at 75.4%, while implied volatility level decreased to 22.72%.

The highest trading volume on the Options Chain was for the call option expiring this Friday, with a strike price of $150, totaling 0.3379 million contracts; the highest open interest was for the call option expiring next Friday, with a strike price of $140, with an open interest of 0.2512 million contracts.

NVIDIA's shares rose nearly 2.5% at the beginning of trading on Tuesday, retreating after reaching a historic high. Some commentators believe that the latest news released by NVIDIA provides an optimistic outlook for the company's long-term prospects, but the short-term upward space is not as large as some investors expect, failing to meet investor expectations for short-term bullishness.$Stifel Financial Corp 5.2% Sr Notes Due 15/10/2047 Usd25 (SFB.US)$The report states that the news released by NVIDIA on Monday is significant, but that is for the long term.

Despite NVIDIA's significant drop overnight, large investors are still betting millions of dollars on bullish positions. Specifically, the Call option expiring next Friday with a strike price of $147 was bought for 0.0616 million contracts, involving a capital of $12.62 million, indicating a bullish direction.

Global macro

Is the moment to buy at the bottom coming? Citigroup: The rise of U.S. Treasury yields to 5% will bring a good opportunity to Buy.

On January 8 local time, Citigroup's Chief Investment Strategist and Chief Economist, Steven Wieting, stated that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield could rise further to 5%, which would be a good time to enter the market. Wieting mentioned at a conference in Singapore: "It is certainly possible for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield to approach 5%. A level of 5% is something we consider to be very attractive."

Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Supports further rate cuts this year.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated on Wednesday that the inflation rate should continue to decline by 2025, allowing the Fed to lower interest rates further, although the pace is still uncertain. Waller mentioned that while inflation "seems to have indeed stagnated" above the Fed's 2% target in the last few months of 2024, the market's inflation expectations and inflation readings for one month and shorter terms lead him to believe that inflation in the USA is continuing to ease.

Waller said: "This minimal progress has led to calls for slowing or stopping interest rate cuts. However, I believe that in the medium term, the inflation rate will continue to move towards the 2% target, and further rate cuts will be appropriate." Waller did not disclose how many times he believes there should be rate cuts this year, but noted that there is a wide range of views among Fed officials, from not cutting rates to as many as five rate cuts. "I still believe the foundations of the US economy are solid," Waller stated, "There are no signs in the data or estimates indicating that the labor market will weaken significantly in the coming months."

Federal Reserve Bostic: Inflation will gradually decline, policymakers should remain cautious in decision-making.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that officials should be cautious in decision-making given the uneven progress in reducing inflation, and are inclined to maintain high interest rates to achieve price stability. Bostic also mentioned that he expects the inflation rate to gradually decline to the Fed's 2% target this year. He added that price pressures are expected to ease, although at times it may seem that progress is stagnating or inflation intensifying. He stated: "Given the uncertainties of these measures, I believe this will require our policy tools to be more cautious."

Insiders say Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to implement a new tariff plan.

According to CNN, insiders say that President-elect Trump is considering declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal grounds for widespread tariffs. Declaring a national economic emergency would allow Trump to utilize the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to establish a new tariff plan, a law that grants the US president unilateral authority to manage imports during a national emergency. It is reported that Trump favors this law because it grants broad jurisdiction over the implementation of tariffs and does not strictly require demonstrating the necessity of tariffs based on 'national security'. Insiders say that Trump's team has not yet made a final decision on whether to declare a national emergency.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder of Macroeconomic Events in the USA

(All in Peking Time)

21:00: Federal Reserve Governor Waller addresses the economic outlook at the OECD meeting.

21:15: U.S. December ADP employment changes (in 10 thousands).

21:30: U.S. seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims for the week ending January 4 (in 10 thousands).

23:00: U.S. November wholesale inventory month-on-month final value (%).

23:30: U.S. EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week ending January 3 (in 10,000 barrels).

Next early morning

1:00: U.S. EIA natural gas inventory changes for the week ending January 3 (in 100 million cubic feet).

3:00: The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the December monetary policy meeting.

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