HSBC Global Research released a report indicating that the latest industry data shows that since November 2024, the average selling price (ASP) of photovoltaic glass products from leading companies has fallen below production costs. The weakening product prices, rising costs, and asset impairments are bringing short-term profit pressures to the photovoltaic glass industry, and it is believed that manufacturers' profits will still be under pressure in the first quarter of this year.

Additionally, the bank also expects that the supply side will accelerate consolidation, as more production capacity has entered a state of cold maintenance, leading to a decline in industry supply. Therefore, HSBC Research believes that the supply-demand balance will see structural improvement in 2025, providing some support for product prices. It is currently predicted that the ASP of photovoltaic glass could rebound to 13.5 RMB per square meter in the second quarter, with profits expected to bottom out in that same quarter.

The bank has also lowered its profit forecast for XINYI SOLAR (00968.HK) for 2024 to 2026 by 20% to 67%, revised the shipment forecast for photovoltaic glass down by 2% to 13%, and increased the production cost forecast by 3% to 4%. The Target Price has been reduced from 3.4 RMB to 3.2 RMB, maintaining a "Hold" rating, while taking a cautious view on its Polysilicon business development.

HSBC Research has also lowered the forecast for FLAT GLASS (06865.HK) photovoltaic glass shipments by 2% to 10% for 2024 to 2026, with the profit forecast also cut by 16% to 47%. The Target Price has been reduced from 16.4 RMB to 15.5 RMB, maintaining a "Buy" rating, still considered a long-term preferred stock when the industry begins to recover.