华尔街见闻此前提及，距离特朗普正式上任美国总统时日渐近，债市对通胀前景的担忧开始升温，10年期美债收益率周二攀升至4.695%，创下自去年4月以来的新高。According to Morgan Stanley's analysis, as the yield on 10-year U.S. treasury bonds rises above 4.5%, it has created pressure on U.S. stock valuations. The correlation between the S&P 500 Index and U.S. treasury yields has turned into a "significant negative correlation." Considering the poor market breadth, the downward pressure on the dollar, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy outlook, U.S. stocks may face severe challenges in the next six months.
Concerns about inflation have driven U.S. Treasury yields to soar and the dollar to strengthen, posing a downside risk to U.S. stocks.
Recently, Morgan Stanley's Chief Investment Officer Michael Wilson warned in a report that $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ the yield has climbed to over 4.5%, putting pressure on U.S. stock valuations, and the correlation between the S&P 500 Index and bond yields has turned "significantly negatively correlated", suggesting that U.S. stocks may face severe challenges in the next six months.
As previously noted by Wall Street News, as the inauguration of Trump as U.S. President approaches, concerns about inflation in the bond market have started to intensify, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury Notes Yield rising to 4.695% on Tuesday, reaching a new high since April last year.
$U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds Yield (US30Y.BD)$ Also surged to the highest level since late October 2023, breaking through the upper limit of the Range.
In fact, since December, the momentum of the rebound in the U.S. stock market has weakened due to concerns about economic growth and the Federal Reserve's more hawkish policy outlook than expected.
Wilson stated that the current level of the dollar has put pressure on companies with substantial international Business, and measured against the 200-day moving average, the gap between the overall S&P 500 Index and its individual components is at a historical high, indicating poor market breadth, which may have a broader impact on the stock market in the first half of this year.
"We believe 2025 may be a year where the performances in the two halves are different."
However, Wilson also added that potential market-friendly policies such as tax cuts may support the stock market in the second half of this year.
Wilson stated that for the U.S. stock market to improve the concentration of gains, it may need to "rely on a combination of factors such as falling interest rates, a weakening dollar, clarity in tariff policies, and strengthening earnings revisions."
In the outlook report released last November, Morgan Stanley set the Target Price for the S&P 500 in 2025 at 6,500 points, approximately 9% higher than last Friday's closing level.
Editor/Rocky
