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Malaysia Among Beneficiary Of Global Trade Diversion: Kenanga

Malaysia Among Beneficiary Of Global Trade Diversion: Kenanga

馬來西亞是全球貨幣交易轉移的受益者之一:Kenanga
Business Today ·  01/07 05:46

Globally, the shipping diversion from the Red Sea continues to weigh down on global trade, especially in the Asia-Europe sector. The diversion from the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope has resulted in a longer voyage for the Asia-Europe route (which contributes 30% of global container volume), reducing the frequency of calls that shipping lines could make at WPRTS's ports (and all other ports in the region). The WTO in October 2024 cut its projection for CY25 global merchandise trade volume growth to 3.0% (from 3.3%), quoting lower water levels in the Panama Canal due to an extreme drought that is disrupting the movement of shipping liners, and the potential escalation of Middle East conflicts.

在全球範圍內,從紅海改道的航運繼續壓制全球貿易,尤其是亞歐地區的貿易。從蘇伊士運河改道到好望角導致亞歐航線(佔全球集裝箱運量的30%)的航程延長,從而減少了航運公司在WPRTS港口(以及該地區所有其他港口)的停靠頻率。世貿組織在2024年10月將其對25財年全球商品貿易量增長的預測從3.3%下調至3.0%(從3.3%),理由是由於極端乾旱干擾了航運班輪的移動,以及中東衝突的潛在升級,巴拿馬運河的水位下降。

Closer to home, the WTO cited an emerging trend of connecting economies or countries that benefited from the trade diversion on US-China trade tensions. Malaysia, Singapore, India, and Vietnam's growth is surging due to their emerging role as "connecting" economies, trading across geopolitical blocs, thereby potentially mitigating the risk of trade fragmentation. Based on Malaysia's external trade November numbers, there was an export surge to the US (57.3% vs. Oct's 32.5%) with the US now Malaysia's largest export destination. It expects domestic logistic sector growth to remain steady going into 2025, which is a beneficiary of the booming e-commerce, supported by the global tech upcycle led by AI demand, a resilient US economy, potential trade diversion amid US-China trade tensions and short-term surge in domestic ports' container volume on frontloading activities ahead of the potential US tariff hike on China goods in 2025.

在離家更近的地方,世貿組織列舉了連接受益於中美貿易緊張局勢貿易轉移的經濟體或國家的新興趨勢。馬來西亞、新加坡、印度和越南的增長之所以激增,是因爲它們扮演了 「連接」 經濟體的角色,跨地緣政治集團進行貿易,從而有可能緩解貿易分散的風險。根據馬來西亞11月的對外貿易數據,對美國的出口激增(57.3%,10月份的32.5%),美國現在是馬來西亞最大的出口目的地。它預計,到2025年,國內物流行業的增長將保持穩定,這是電子商務蓬勃發展的受益者,這得益於人工智能需求主導的全球科技升級週期、彈性的美國經濟、中美貿易緊張局勢中可能出現的貿易轉移,以及在2025年美國可能提高對中國商品的關稅之前,國內港口前裝貨活動的集裝箱量短期激增。

During the 12 months for the trade war since Feb 2018, Kenanga IB in its research saw local listed port operators' share prices trading sideways except for BIPORT which dived due to its largest exposure to China as its biggest LNG export market. China, the biggest export destination for Malaysia in 2018−2022, saw a double whammy (US tariff hike and port closures due to the pandemic lockdown). Presently, the US is now Malaysia's largest export destination which Kenanga believes is due to trade diversion, trade frontloading, and China's slowdown in economic growth.

在自2018年2月以來的12個月貿易戰中,Kenanga Ib在其研究中發現,除BiPort外,當地上市港口運營商的股價橫盤整理,BiPort因其最大的液化天然氣出口市場對中國的敞口最大而下跌。中國是馬來西亞在2018-2022年最大的出口目的地,遭受了雙重打擊(由於疫情封鎖,美國提高關稅和關閉港口)。目前,美國現在是馬來西亞最大的出口目的地,肯南加認爲,這是由於貿易轉移、貿易前期和中國經濟增長放緩所致。

Overall, Malaysian ports' container growth volume is expected to remain in single-digit growth due to China projected slower growth in 2025 (the IMF projected China's economic growth to slow down to 4.5% from 5% in 2024), but partially offset by the potential trade diversion amid US-China trade tensions.

總體而言,由於中國預計2025年增長放緩(國際貨幣基金組織預計中國經濟增長將從2024年的5%放緩至4.5%),馬來西亞港口的集裝箱增長量預計將保持個位數增長,但被中美貿易緊張局勢中潛在的貿易轉移所部分抵消。

The house said it also acknowledge that stricter regulations on carbon emissions may pose new challenges to global trade, particularly, one from the United Nations' International Maritime Organization (IMO) and another from the European Union (EU). While the exact implications of the regulations of the IMO and EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on the seaport and logistics sectors remain unclear (especially for CBAM which is still pending finalisation and to take effect by 2026), the volume of containers heading to the EU will certainly be affected (about 18% of container throughput under Asia-Europe trade), especially those originating from China, which is a major exporter of iron, steel and aluminium to the EU.

衆議院表示,它還承認,更嚴格的碳排放監管可能會對全球貿易構成新的挑戰,特別是來自聯合國國際海事組織(IMO)的挑戰和來自歐盟(EU)的另一項挑戰。儘管國際海事組織和歐盟碳邊境調整機制(CBAM)的法規對海港和物流業的確切影響尚不清楚(特別是對CbAM,它仍有待最終敲定,將於2026年生效),但運往歐盟的集裝箱數量肯定會受到影響(約佔亞歐貿易中集裝箱吞吐量的18%),尤其是來自中國的集裝箱,中國是主要的鐵、鋼和鋁出口國歐盟。

Under the new IMO rules, effective January 2023, all ships must report their carbon intensity and will be rated accordingly.
The ships must record a 2% annual improvement in their carbon intensity from 2023 through 2030 or face being removed from service.

根據自2023年1月起生效的新國際海事組織規則,所有船舶都必須報告其碳強度,並將進行相應的評級。
從2023年到2030年,這些船舶的碳強度必須每年提高2%,否則將面臨停用。

Meanwhile, the house also noted that the EU's CBAM policy could disrupt the exports of certain commodities (iron and steel, cement, aluminium, fertiliser, electricity, hydrogen) to the EU. During the transition period between Oct 2023 and Dec 2025, EU importers must report embedded emissions in goods imported on a quarterly basis, as well as any carbon price paid to a third country. When the CBAM takes full effect starting 2026, importers will need to buy carbon credits reflecting the emissions generated in producing them.

同時,衆議院還指出,歐盟的CbAM政策可能會干擾某些大宗商品(鋼鐵、水泥、鋁、化肥、電力、氫氣)對歐盟的出口。在 2023 年 10 月至 2025 年 12 月的過渡期內,歐盟進口商必須按季度報告進口商品的內含排放量,以及向第三國支付的任何碳價格。當CbAM從2026年開始全面生效時,進口商將需要購買反映生產碳排放量的碳信用額度。

On a more positive note, Kenanga said it sees a bright spot in the domestically driven third-party logistics (3PL) sector, which is less vulnerable to external headwinds, being buoyed by the booming e-commerce. Industry experts project the local e-commerce gross merchandise volume to grow at a CAGR of 7% from 2023 to 2027, reaching RM1.9t by 2027 from RM1.4t in 2023.

更積極的一面是,凱南加表示,在蓬勃發展的電子商務的推動下,國內驅動的第三方物流(3PL)行業將出現亮點,該行業不太容易受到外部不利因素的影響。業內專家預計,從2023年到2027年,本地電子商務商品總額將以7%的複合年增長率增長,到2027年將從2023年的1.4萬億令吉達到1.9萬億令吉。

The booming e-commerce will spur demand for distribution hubs and warehouses to enable: (i) just-in-time (JIT) delivery, (ii) reshoring/nearshoring to bring manufacturers closer to end customers, (iii) efficient automation system, including interconnectivity with the customer system, and (iv) warehouse decentralisation to reduce transportation costs and de-risk the supply chain. There is also strong demand for cold-storage warehouses on the back of the proliferation of online grocery start-ups.
The house is NEUTRAL on the sector and do not have any top pick for the sector.

蓬勃發展的電子商務將刺激對配送中心和倉庫的需求,以實現:(i)準時(JIT)交付,(ii)回租/近岸外包以使製造商更接近終端客戶,(iii)高效的自動化系統,包括與客戶系統的互連,以及(iv)倉庫分散化以降低交通成本和降低供應鏈風險。在在線雜貨初創企業激增的背景下,對冷庫倉庫的需求也很強勁。
衆議院對該行業持中立態度,該行業沒有任何首選。

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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