Is This Warren Buffett Stock a Good Buy Right Now?
Is This Warren Buffett Stock a Good Buy Right Now?
When Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reveals a new position, investors take notice. The Oracle of Omaha's recent US$550 million bet on Domino's Pizza (NASDAQ:DPZ) might seem modest by Berkshire's standards, but it speaks volumes about the pizza giant's potential.
當禾倫·巴菲特的伯克希爾·哈撒韋披露新頭寸時,投資者會格外關注。奧馬哈的 oracle 最近在達美樂披薩(納斯達克:DPZ)上下注55000萬美元,對伯克希爾而言看似微不足道,但這反映了這家披薩巨頭的潛力。
While many view Domino's as just another fast-food chain, the global powerhouse has transformed into a technology-driven delivery machine serving impressive shareholder returns. Since January 2015, Domino's has returned more than 400% to shareholders in dividend-adjusted gains.
雖然許多人將達美樂視爲另一家快餐連鎖店,但這家全球巨頭已經轉型爲一家以科技驅動的外賣機器,給股東帶來了可觀的回報。自2015年1月以來,達美樂已經爲股東提供了超過400%的分紅調整收益。
With the stock currently trading at a reasonable valuation, let's see if it is the right time to grab a slice of Domino's alongside Buffett.
由於該股票目前的估值合理,讓我們看看現在是否是與巴菲特一起分享達美樂的一片。
The bull case for investing in the Warren Buffett stock
投資禾倫·巴菲特股票的看漲案例
Domino's is a tech company that sells pizzas all over the world. In the last 12 months, Domino's has increased sales to US$4.66 billion, up from US$3.6 billion in 2018. However, the company generated less than US$400 million from company-owned stores, while the rest was derived from franchise fees and royalties, ad sales, and supply chain revenue.
達美樂是一家科技公司,銷售覆蓋全球的披薩。在過去的12個月裏,達美樂的銷售額增加到46.6億美元,從2018年的36億美元上漲。然而,該公司從自營店生成的收入不足40000萬美元,其餘部分來自特許經營費、版權費、廣告銷售和供應鏈收入。
Moreover, it generates a sizeable portion of its sales from digital channels, and these technological investments have allowed it to create a formidable moat. Domino's emphasized that its mobile application, artificial intelligence (AI)-powered delivery optimization, and GPS tracking system are driving operating efficiency and customer loyalty.
此外,它的銷售相當大一部分來自數字渠道,這些技術投資使其建立了強大的護城河。達美樂強調,其移動應用程序、人工智能(AI)驅動的配送優化和GPS追蹤系統正在推動營業效率和客戶忠誠度。
With more than 90% of franchised stores, Domino's has a capital-light business model, enabling it to report an operating margin of over 18%.
達美樂擁有超過90%的特許經營店,採用資本輕型的商業模式,使其報告的營業利潤率超過18%。
Notably, the company stated that its growth story is far from over, as it remains focused on expanding into high-growth markets such as India and China. Over the years, Warren Buffett has invested in businesses that can scale efficiently, and this franchise-based model fits that bill perfectly.
值得注意的是,該公司表示其增長故事遠未結束,因爲它仍然專注於擴展到印度和中國等高增長市場。多年來,禾倫·巴菲特投資於能夠有效擴展的業務,而這種基於特許經營的模式完全符合這一標準。
Additionally, while third-party delivery apps have disrupted the food industry, Domino's has stubbornly maintained its in-house delivery model. Once questioned by Wall Street, the strategy is proving successful as it gives the fast-food heavyweight complete control over the customer experience while protecting margins from delivery app fees.
此外,儘管第三方配送應用破壞了餐飲行業,達美樂仍然堅持其內部配送模式。曾受到華爾街質疑的這一策略正在獲得成功,因爲它使快餐巨頭能夠完全控制客戶體驗,同時保護營業利潤率,避免配送應用費用。
A strong performance in Q3 of 2024
2024年第三季度表現強勁
While several restaurants are struggling with falling traffic, Domino's saw same-store sales rise by 3% year over year and retail sales rise by 6.6% year over year in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024. The company explained that its "Hungry for MORE" strategy, especially its focus on value offerings, is paying off.
儘管一些餐廳在顧客流量下降中掙扎,達美樂在2024年第三季度(Q3)同店銷售同比增長了3%,零售銷售同比增長了6.6%。該公司解釋說,其"渴望更多"策略,尤其是對價值產品的關注,正在獲得回報。
Moreover, its reward program continues to attract new members and drive repeat purchases, while its partnership with Uber accounts for 2.7% of U.S. sales.
此外,其獎勵計劃繼續吸引新會員並推動重複購買,而其與Uber的合作佔美國銷售的2.7%。
However, international markets face headwinds with Domino's tempering estimates of same-store sales through 2025. Despite near-term headwinds, it has projected global retail sales growth in 2024 and is maintaining its 8% operating profit growth target.
然而,國際市場面臨壓力,達美樂調低了2025年前同店銷售的預期。儘管短期內有挑戰,但它預測2024年全球零售銷售將增長,並保持8%的營業利潤增長目標。
Analysts tracking the restaurant stock expect adjusted earnings to expand from US$14.66 per share in 2023 to US$20 per share in 2026. So, priced at 22 times forward earnings, DPZ stock might seem expensive. However, its lofty valuation is supported by strong growth estimates.
追蹤餐廳股票的分析師預計,調整後每股收益將從2023年的14.66美元增長到2026年的20美元。因此,以22倍的未來收益計算,DPZ股票可能看起來相對昂貴。然而,其高估值得到了強勁增長預期的支持。
Domino's asset-light business allows it to pay shareholders an annual dividend of US$6.04 per share, translating to a forward yield of 1.4%. Its annual dividend expense totals roughly US$220 million and is easily covered by an estimated free cash flow of US$550 million in 2024. Domino's has grown its dividends by 500% in the last decade, significantly enhancing the yield at cost.
達美樂輕資產的業務模式使其能夠每年向股東支付每股6.04美元的分紅,換算成前瞻收益率爲1.4%。其年分紅支出總計約爲22000萬美元,而預計2024年的自由現金流爲55000萬美元,完全足以覆蓋。達美樂在過去十年內將其分紅增長了500%,顯著提高了投資收益率。
For investors, Domino's combination of market share gains, technological innovation, and strong unit economics might make it a tasty addition to their portfolios — just ask Warren Buffett.
對於投資者而言,達美樂在市場份額增長、科技創新和強勁單元經濟學的結合,可能使其成爲投資組合中的美味添加品——只需問問禾倫·巴菲特。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。