Author: James Hunt, The Block; Translated by: Wu Zhu, Jinse Finance.
As we enter the first full week of 2025, analysts from research and brokerage firm Bernstein have made 10 predictions for the upcoming year, as Cryptos enter what they describe as the "Infinite Era."
The Infinite Era is described as "a long period characterized by continuous evolution and widespread acceptance, where Cryptos are no longer controversial—just part of the financial system built for the new Asia Vets era," wrote analysts led by Gautam Chhugani in a report to clients on Monday. "Do not expect a boom-bust cycle," he said. "Cryptos are now firmly in the sights of enterprises, Banks, and Institutions, integrating into the very foundations of our financial system."
After the elected president Donald Trump made a strategic Bitcoin reserve campaign promise, analysts reiterated their expectations for Bitcoin price targets, projecting that by the end of 2025, Bitcoin will reach $0.2 million.
Although analysts are uncertain whether the country will prioritize actual purchasing as a legislative goal this year, they do expect corporate funding adoption to continue to grow, predicting an Inflow of over $50 billion for 2025, up from $24 billion last year. Analysts stated that MicroStrategy may lead demand again, followed by Bitcoin miners expanding capital plans and small to medium-sized companies hoping to emulate Michael Saylor's model.
They also predict that the USA spot Bitcoin ETF will attract more than $70 billion in net inflows—twice the approximate $35 billion anticipated for 2024—mainly due to accelerated institutional adoption from hedge funds, Banks, and wealth advisors, with holding proportions skyrocketing to 40%, compared to just 22% for ETF investments in the third quarter of last year. Additionally, analysts expect the Bitcoin ETF whitelist process to continue, leading national composite Banks and private banking platforms to persist, and the momentum for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs will continue, with a Solana ETF possibly emerging before the end of the year.
"The USA announcing a national Bitcoin reserve would trigger a global competition among sovereign nations to purchase Bitcoin. Our expectation for Bitcoin prices at $0.2 million does not consider government demand—only institutional and corporate demand," Chhugani said. "As corporate treasuries and Bitcoin ETFs become essential components of Bitcoin ownership, we anticipate that ownership will solidify further. Therefore, if Bitcoin lingers below $0.1 million for an extended period, it will transfer from traders/sellers to long-term holders such as MicroStrategy and Bitcoin ETF holders."
Regarding Bitcoin, analysts indicate that miners "must" continue to shift their capacity towards AI to create value. In 2024, there will be significant performance differences between AI-diversified companies and "pure" Bitcoin miners. Analysts point out that AI-diversified companies like Core Scientific and TeraWulf have achieved returns of 308% and 136% this year, while Riot Platforms and CleanSpark have reported losses of 34% and 17%, respectively. They expect this trend to continue as "AI changes the business model of Bitcoin mining, making it more sustainable and less cyclical, thereby attracting a broader base of institutional investors."
Continuing with the AI theme, Bernstein analysts expect the integration with the crypto industry to become tighter this year, as the convergence of AI and crypto is facilitating innovation in multiple areas. Key developments include decentralized AI blockchains for computing, storage, and inference, as well as "human proof" verification services, AI-integrated crypto wallets, and tokenized AI agents.
The market size of stablecoins has reached 500 billion USD, with the SEC withdrawing cases against cryptocurrencies.
Bernstein analysts predict that with governments supportive of cryptocurrencies coming to power, the industry will face an "unprecedented" regulatory tailwind this year, which may include upcoming legislation regarding stablecoins and the structure of the digital asset market, as well as further clarification on the definition of "crypto securities."
"The stablecoin bill will be seen as a priority. Stablecoins further enhance the dollar by purchasing government bonds and distributing digital dollars online," Chhugani stated. "The structure of the digital asset market contributes to legal clarity and licensing for exchanges and brokers/dealers, including the legal status of non-custodial DeFi protocols, which excludes them from the definition of broker/dealer status. Lastly, it limits the definition of crypto securities and allows the CFTC to exercise more oversight over most digital assets, except for a small portion classified as securities."
Such legislation in the USA may drive significant growth in the global stablecoin market, with analysts predicting that by 2025, the global market size for stablecoins will exceed 500 billion USD, more than double the expected 55% growth in 2024, reaching over 200 billion USD, as its applications extend beyond the crypto industry, especially in the areas of global cross-border B2B payments and remittance solutions.
In addition, analysts expect the more supportive SEC to withdraw or resolve existing cases against cryptocurrency companies, allowing more private crypto firms to enter the public market, making IPOs a further positive catalyst for the market. They also anticipate that cryptocurrency exchanges and platforms like Robinhood will achieve tokenization of the stock market, enabling blockchain-based 24/7 liquidity trading in stocks, while banks and asset management firms will launch more products related to cryptocurrencies.
Finally, Chhugani stated that despite last year's poor performance, Ethereum is expected to become the next 'institution darling' by 2025. Analysts say that 28% of Ethereum is staked, 3% is absorbed by ETFs, and 7.5% is locked in AI contracts. The limited supply of Ethereum, along with its utility as a fee payment and collateral asset in Layer 1 and Layer 2 chains, makes it attractive to traditional investors seeking intrinsic value.