Overview of this week's important schedule.

• Federal Reserve officials speak collectively as the year begins! The minutes from the December FOMC meeting may provide clues about the Fed's hawkish shift.

On Thursday, January 9, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the monetary policy meeting in December 2024. At the December meeting, officials predicted only two rate cuts in 2025, and Fed Chair Powell stated that further adjustments would depend on the trajectory of inflation. Although price pressures have significantly eased since 2022, the progress towards the Fed's 2% target has been fluctuating in recent months. The inflation indicator favored by the Fed rose 2.4% year-on-year in November, consistent with the June level.

Economists are also looking forward to seeing if the Fed officials, who have already 'broken the rules' to consider Trump's policies, will provide more details in the minutes, such as how the policies planned by Trump could affect the economy and, in turn, influence interest rate prospects.

Two Federal Reserve officials emphasized on Saturday that the Fed must complete the fight to curb skyrocketing prices and achieve the 2% inflation target. Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed, stated during a panel discussion that despite significant progress in reducing price pressures over the past two years, the inflation rate remains 'uncomfortably above our target.' Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler echoed this sentiment at an event held by the American Economic Association in San Francisco. 'Clearly our work is not done,' she said. 'We have not yet reached 2%, so our goal is definitely to get there. We know the work is not complete.'

• The USA will release several labor market data points. The US stock market will be closed on January 9 in remembrance of former President Jimmy Carter.

The USA will release several labor market data points starting with the JOLTs job openings data on Tuesday, followed by the ADP employment data on Wednesday, and concluding with the non-farm payroll data on Friday.

It is noteworthy that the December non-farm data is the first report in several months that is not influenced by one-off factors. The October data was negatively impacted by hurricanes and Boeing strikes, while the November data showed a reversal due to favorable base effects from October. The December report should more clearly reflect the current dynamics of the USA labor market.

UBS Group expects that the number of new jobs in the USA in December will be close to the recent average, and will continue to show that the labor market is gradually cooling down, providing space for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates. Given the current market pricing, strong labor data is unlikely to lead to further rate cuts by the Fed, while weak data may lead the market to consider further rate cuts. However, the US data is unlikely to weaken the USD at this stage.

ING expects that the labor market will not deteriorate rapidly, but only gradually, which is consistent with the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on easing policies. After the hawkish tilt in the December dot plot, a rate cut in January indeed requires a series of data that sounds like a recession. The bank expects that if a short-term pullback occurs, the USD will experience strong buying during the decline. Macroeconomic and political factors continue to point towards the USD index level of 110.

In addition, US President Biden has designated January 9, 2025, as a national day of mourning to commemorate former US President Jimmy Carter. On that day, all federal government executive departments and agencies will be closed, and the NYSE and Nasdaq will be closed for trading.

• China will release a series of macroeconomic data, including CPI, PPI, social financing, and new RMB loans.

On Monday, China's December Caixin services PMI will be released. Previously, the PMI index released by the National Bureau of Statistics for December was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

GTJA pointed out that the December PMI data has three highlights, which may indicate that exports and the service industry will continue to remain highly prosperous: first, new export orders are improving slowly, and the production index is falling, which may create a "false phenomenon" of rushed exports; however, compared to seasonal factors, new export orders and the production index are still strong, and the continuous increase in orders on hand and raw material procurement indexes also indicates that rushed exports may have already occurred. Port high-frequency data predicts a high growth rate for December exports.

On Thursday, the National Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly report for the residential Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for December 2024. The National Bureau of Statistics previously released data showing that in November, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year and decreased by 0.6% month-on-month; the Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.5% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month.

In addition, the central bank of China will also release data on money supply, social financing, and new RMB loans for December.

The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined the key tasks for the 2025 economic work, setting the tone for a "moderately loose" monetary policy, and proposing to maintain "ample" liquidity. Many analysts believe that there will continue to be moderate reductions in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates this year. At the same time, new monetary policy tools such as the buyout reverse repurchase operations and government bond transactions established in 2024 will also offer more options for liquidity supply. The adjustment in monetary policy statements indicates that the monetary policy in 2025 will continue to maintain strong support for the real economy.

• The world's largest technology event, CES, will be held, and Jensen Huang may bring news about NVIDIA's new GPU!

The annual International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) will be held from Tuesday to Friday (January 7-10). Major companies such as NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Samsung, and Sony will hold a series of press conferences on January 6. Due to time difference, this corresponds to the early hours to midday of Tuesday in the Chinese market. For the Capital Markets, many listed companies will choose to release their participation announcements before the event.

In 2024, NVIDIA, which has gained global popularity, is one of the most watched companies at this CES. It is reported that NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote speech at CES. Jensen Huang also needs to prove to the Capital Markets that the demand for AI chips will remain strong in 2025 and for a long time thereafter. In addition, the market speculates that NVIDIA's robotics strategy may soon reveal its mysteries, and the commercialization of humanoid robots seems imminent.

Before Jensen Huang's appearance, AMD and Intel will hold their keynote speeches first. The market expects AMD to announce the Radeon RX 9070 XT graphics card. Since Intel just had a "three leadership changes in six years" at the end of last year, the keynote speech can only be hosted by the interim co-CEO, who is also the CEO of the chip design division, Pat Gelsinger.

• The Hong Kong IPO market is actively launching! 8 new stocks are currently undergoing New Year’s cross-year subscriptions.

At the beginning of the New Year in 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market is already showing a prosperous trend. 8 new stocks are undergoing cross-year subscriptions, including Brudle, Conch Materials, Saimu Technology, and Yibin Bank. If priced at the upper limit, these 8 new stocks could raise a total of over 4.552 billion HKD, and are expected to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange between January 8 and 15, catching the "first train" of new year listings.

The Hong Kong Investment Promotion Agency stated that looking ahead to 2025, it is expected that large-scale companies will continue to list in Hong Kong. On one hand, the China Securities Regulatory Commission encourages leading enterprises from China to list in Hong Kong, and on the other hand, the planned moderate easing of MMF policy in mainland China will continue to promote the IPO trend. In addition, the inherent listing advantages of Hong Kong make it increasingly attractive as a listing destination.

January 6, Monday.

Keywords: China's Caixin Services PMI, USA S&P Global Services PMI.

On Monday, in terms of economic data, Caixin will release China's Services PMI, and the USA will announce the final values of the S&P Global Services PMI, as well as the month-on-month rate of factory Orders.

In terms of economic events, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech, and in 2027, FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly will participate in a panel discussion.

Regarding new stocks, in the Hong Kong stock market, $CONCH MAT TECH (02560.HK)$ 、 $CONTIOCEAN (02613.HK)$ The IPO Subscription has ended.

January 7, Tuesday

Keywords: USA Consumer Electronics Show (CES) opening, China's Forex reserves, USA ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Bruker IPO Subscription ends

On Tuesday, in terms of economic data, China will announce its Forex reserves, while the USA will release the December ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, November Trade Balance, and November JOLTs Job Openings.

In terms of financial events, the 2025 USA Consumer Electronics Show (CES) starts today, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a speech at 10:30 AM Beijing time on January 7; 2027 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Barkin will also speak.

Regarding new stocks, in the Hong Kong stock market, $BLOKS (00325.HK)$ 、 $NUMANS (02530.HK)$ the IPO Subscription has ended, $BRAINAURORA-B (06681.HK)$ Announce the result of the lottery.

January 8, Wednesday

Keywords: "Small Non-Farm" USA ADP employment numbers.

On Wednesday, in terms of economic data, the USA ADP employment data known as the "Small Non-Farm" will be released tonight.

Regarding new stocks, in the Hong Kong stock market, $CONTIOCEAN (02613.HK)$ 、 $CONCH MAT TECH (02560.HK)$ announced the lottery results, $NEW GONOW RV (00805.HK)$ 、 $YIBIN BANK (02596.HK)$ the IPO Subscription has ended, $BRAINAURORA-B (06681.HK)$ The new stock is listed today. In the US stock market, $COR3 & Co (COC.US)$ The IPO Subscription has ended.

In terms of financial events, today is the second day of the 2025 USA Consumer Electronics Show (CES). At 3:00 AM the next day, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting.

January 9, Thursday

Keywords: US stock market closed all day, Federal Reserve releases December monetary policy meeting minutes, China's macroeconomic data

On Thursday, economic data will be released in China, including M2 money supply, CPI, PPI, social financing data, new RMB loans, etc.; the USA will announce unemployment data, including the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits and the number of layoffs reported by Challenger.

Regarding new stocks, in the Hong Kong stock market, $CONCH MAT TECH (02560.HK)$、 $CONTIOCEAN (02613.HK)$ is listing today; $BLOKS (00325.HK)$ 、 $NUMANS (02530.HK)$ Announced the lottery results. In the US stock market, $COR3 & Co (COC.US)$ Announced the lottery results and was listed.

In terms of financial events, at 3 AM, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting; in an event about the 2025 economic forecast, 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Harker spoke, and the 2025 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) entered its third day.

The next morning, 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Harker spoke at an event about the 2025 economic forecast.

In addition, in commemoration of the passing of former President Carter, the Nasdaq, the NYSE, and Cboe Global Markets will halt trading for the entire day.

January 10, Friday

Keywords: USA Non-Farm Employment Data, Delta Air Lines Performance, Bruko Listing

On Friday, regarding economic data, the USA will announce the first Non-Farm Employment Data for 2025, followed by the USA unemployment rate, initial value of one-year inflation expectations, and the initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

In terms of financial events, 2025 FOMC voting member and Kansas Fed President Schmidt will speak on economic and monetary policy outlook; 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will also speak.

In US stock performance, $Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$ will report Q4 revenue for 2024.

Regarding the IPOs, $YIBIN BANK (02596.HK)$ 、 $NEW GONOW RV (00805.HK)$ announced the lottery results, $BLOKS (00325.HK)$ 、 $NUMANS (02530.HK)$ is listing today; $SAIMO (02571.HK)$ The IPO Subscription has ended.

Wishing Mooers a successful week of investment!

Editor/Rocky